Liberals Roar Back, Right-Wing Grip on Canada Shaken

Unprecedented Surge

“Unprecedented.”

“No historical precedent.”

That’s how The Guardian described the political earthquake shaking Canada. In just 60 days, the Conservatives have hemorrhaged 7 points, while the Liberals have staged a jaw-dropping 18-point surge. I’ve seen stunning comebacks before, but this one rewrites the rulebook.

Just three months ago, the talk was of a historic wipeout for the Liberals, who’ve held power since 2015. The right wasn’t just on track to win power—it was poised to dominate Parliament. Now? The script has flipped, and no one saw it coming.

I find it difficult to call Canada’s Conservatives truly conservative. Leader Pierre Poilievre and Trump may try to put distance between themselves, but their playbooks are eerily similar.

This is something that I can never forgive.

The ideological overlap between Trump and Poilievre is undeniable. But I’ll admit, there was one moment when I found myself agreeing with Poilievre—when he said:

“I wonder sometimes if we had a million barrels of western Canadian oil going to Europe right now, or three years ago, if we had thousands of cubic feet of natural gas flowing there daily—would Putin have been able to fund a three-year war?”

It’s a valid question. But here’s the fundamental problem with right-wing politicians: they lie. And almost without exception, they embrace isolationism, which has disastrous economic consequences.

• Right-wing Brexit wrecked the U.K.

• Trump’s right-wing presidency is wrecking the U.S. economy in real time.

At the start of 2025, under President Biden, the U.S. economy was projected to grow 3.1% in Q1. Now? Just two months into Trump’s new term, the economy is staring down a 1.5% contraction. In a single day, $4 trillion was wiped out from U.S. capital markets. Four. Trillion. Dollars. And the right-wing administration has barely settled in.

So this idea of “giving right-wingers a chance” just to see what happens? Unthinkable.

Which brings us back to Canada. The Liberal Party’s stunning reversal in fortune isn’t just about Pierre Poilievre—it’s about Donald Trump.

Trump infuriated Canadians by floating the idea of annexation. Then he doubled down, trying to trigger a recession by slapping tariffs on Canadian exports. Maybe he did it as a distraction—his go-to strategy. Maybe he did it to undermine the Liberals and boost Canada’s right-wing rise.

But it backfired.

The Liberals played their cards well too, forcing Justin Trudeau out and replacing him with Mark Carney. The anti-incumbency wave that has swept through nearly every Western democracy—New Zealand, Australia, Italy, France, the U.S., Germany—was supposed to crush Canada’s Liberals.

And yet, here they are.

Still, Carney can’t assume the trendline will keep working in his favor. The right-wing Conservatives still lead by four points. That’s a reality he needs to confront. Carney’s pitch can’t just be about not being Poilievre. It can’t be the same mistake U.S. Democrats keep making—“Vote for us because the other guy is worse.”

We already know that.

The real question is: Why Carney? Why only Carney?

With Trump in power, every election matters. Every right-wing victory drags the world further backward. Carney has to win. But to do that, he needs to make it clear how he will lead. Not as a Trudeau sequel. Not as a status quo candidate.

He needs to tell Canadians—not just why Poilievre is dangerous, but why he is the only real choice.