“So it's fitting that both leaders are now receiving the same treatment they've given the democratic world. Perhaps they'll run to Putin to complain about their disrupted revenue streams. Perhaps they should ask their patron to deploy massive air defense systems across thousands of kilometers of pipeline infrastructure to protect their cash flow.”
The EU and NATO need to find a mechanism to remove both Hungary and Slovakia from these organizations. They’re nothing more than a couple of Trojan Horses, and they will be the death of the EU.
It’s incredible that two of the weakest EU nations have so much power. It’s similar to the dynamic of red states like N. Dakota and S. Dakota have in terms of political clout in the US: States with less than a million people, but have two senators in Congress.
And as far as Putin’s military campaign, and his objectives, Putin couldn’t accomplish any of this without Trump’s participation and consent.
Moreover, where are the sanctions Trump keeps promising? Oh wait, Trump is removing them and also allowing Putin to continue trade with the US to fund his war: eggs, gold and other commodities that will help to replenish his war machine. Additionally, if Trump is so upset with India buying Russian oil, then why is he doing business with Russia covertly and unwilling to admit it publicly?
And take a look at what Trump’s doing in the America’s; illegally murdering suspected (key word) drug traffickers, offering absolutely no proof. Moving F-35’s to Puerto Rico to threaten other central and South American countries as well as Venezuela; under the guise of a drug war.
That said, even Trump’s covert (not so covert) campaign to sow chaos in Greenland hasn’t gone unnoticed, adding credence to the “three spheres of influence” theory in which the US gets all of the America’s, Putin takes Europe, and Xi gets Asia. This idea or theory is starting to look more and more credible by the day.
Bottom line: something nefarious is occurring and it definitely isn’t anything good. And if you add the economy busting tariffs, designed to weaken Europe’s economy, it all starts to look like a global conspiracy of world domination by three autocratic regimes. Just saying….:)
That would be a smart play but they’re already under Putin’s thumb. Both countries continually undermine every attempt by the EU to help fund our Ukrainian allies; extorting them of billions of euros and causing time delays in the delivery critical military weapon systems.
At some point you need to cut your losses, and considering how Hungary has helped the religious fascists stage a coup in the US (Project 2025); it’s apparent they can never be trusted. I wouldn’t be shocked if both men have been compromised by the Russian’s (Kompromat).
Yep. They both are corrupt. There is nothing to save there. And don't forget the right wing hate machine around the world gets a lot money through this Putin-Orban nexus. Fico is working so hard to join.
When you look at the Russian casualty figures it’s hard to imagine that the United States lost somewhere over 50,000 men in about 10 years in Vietnam. I know the Russian figure of over 90,00 in just months includes wounded as well as dead, at least I’m assuming that, but still it is astonishing how little value they place on human life.
1. Would India benefit significantly by joining China and Russia? Presumably the latter is a questionable proposition as things worsen for Putin.
2. In terms of natural resources is Russia far ahead of Ukraine? The hat is really not clear to me.
3. What is your best guess about new munitions reaching Ukraine before the Russia offensive? Might this threat speed things up?
4. Pure specific platoon here, but if Ukraine could take out two more refineries in the near term, how badly hurt would Putin be?
5. You mentioned Russia pushing on its supply of heavily armored vehicles. How susceptible are these to drone bombing?
6. Lastly, the EU is finally dealing with Hungary and Slovakia to stop from being hamstrung by the Putin allies. What is being done?
7. Sorry I lied. One more question. What do you make of the report from credible sources that the U.S. is buying ages and diamonds from Russia? Just Trump supporting his best buddy?
I hope Ukraine is able to pull off another unexpected event within Russia, or take out more oil refineries, etc. The psychological toll on Putin appears to be significant. Poor Ukraine. I am so sorry the U.S. has treated them so shabbily. I guess we are about to see the War President becoming active in other locations.
Thank you so much for all your lucid analysis. I appreciate the notes of optimism where they exist.
1. No. China and India can never be allies. They are natural enemies, not allies. Right now, they only want an opportunistic alliance.
2.Bad comparison. Ukraine has close to $16 trillion worth of natural resources. For Russia, every additional resource increases its geopolitical strength. It’s the 10 million barrels per day that have allowed them to wage this war for so long. Now, they want Ukraine’s mineral fields to sink their teeth into the world of critical resources.
3.840 units are expected to arrive this month. But it’s not safe until they actually arrive. Musk and the Thiel group will be working overtime. On the right track, but nothing is safe until it’s in the warehouse.
4.Attacking refineries will not trigger an economic collapse. It will cause acute economic pain. Think of it more like a 20% tax on the Russian economy. It also drives inflation. It seeds chaos while increasing the cost of war.
5.They are not supplying huge numbers. After a lull, they brought them back. They don’t have many. Nothing big to worry about here. All will be taken out in due course. Two days ago, they launched an attack with 17 vehicles in the Pokrovsk sector. All were destroyed.
6.This has more to do with patching their own weaknesses. They want to shut them out or shut them down so they can move forward collectively. Less about Putin, more about self-interest for the EU — which, by the way, is actually connected.
7. No idea. Trump does like to play all sides when he can — sometimes even one side against the other.
It is my belief that the troops Putin is amassing for this planned offensive are of poor quality--hurriedly trained, ill equipped, and low morale. Most are unwillingly conscripted from Russian states or are soldiers, not fully recovered from previous battle injuries, being forced back to the front lines. Add to that the rampant corruption within the military, poorly maintained equipment and a compromised air defense system, and this looks like another Putin charade to convey non-existent strength. Ukraine's rapidly developing AI drones and their home-grown Flamingo missile will further cause Russia to continue faltering under economic, military and social unrest challenges. I don't think Russia will have much, if any, success this time around either.
Strong assessment, but no action plan. We inform like minded people on BlueSky and Restack. But we are not reaching very far outside the tent. And in order for democracy to survive this assault, we need massive numbers of political leaders on the street, face to face, screaming to audiences the details of the horror Trump’s fascist regime and his billionaire puppet masters have yet to force upon us.
I wish it was that easy, Mr. Narayan. Europe is facing austerity, busted long term yields, and rising right wing pressure. Democracy is under assault by Xi and his puppets.
I don't know why not one head of state, when meeting Putin, doesn't just tell him to his face that he's a murderous thug who has destroyed his country. It's so odd so many powerful people grant him respect to his face. It's one thing to be a treacherous and murderous ruler and be successful and quite another to be a failure. It doesn't really matter what happens in the next few months. Even if Ukraine folded today it would be like the dog that caught the car and may have been even in 2022.
Thank you once again for your helpful and concise analysis. However, I’m not so sure about what you make of the numbers of losses. It seems that the KIA-WIA ratio is much higher despite the lower number of total losses per day. So that indeed would imply that Russia is losing even more soldiers, for instance: https://bsky.app/profile/madrykot316.bsky.social/post/3lyasebeuds2f
“So it's fitting that both leaders are now receiving the same treatment they've given the democratic world. Perhaps they'll run to Putin to complain about their disrupted revenue streams. Perhaps they should ask their patron to deploy massive air defense systems across thousands of kilometers of pipeline infrastructure to protect their cash flow.”
The EU and NATO need to find a mechanism to remove both Hungary and Slovakia from these organizations. They’re nothing more than a couple of Trojan Horses, and they will be the death of the EU.
It’s incredible that two of the weakest EU nations have so much power. It’s similar to the dynamic of red states like N. Dakota and S. Dakota have in terms of political clout in the US: States with less than a million people, but have two senators in Congress.
And as far as Putin’s military campaign, and his objectives, Putin couldn’t accomplish any of this without Trump’s participation and consent.
Moreover, where are the sanctions Trump keeps promising? Oh wait, Trump is removing them and also allowing Putin to continue trade with the US to fund his war: eggs, gold and other commodities that will help to replenish his war machine. Additionally, if Trump is so upset with India buying Russian oil, then why is he doing business with Russia covertly and unwilling to admit it publicly?
And take a look at what Trump’s doing in the America’s; illegally murdering suspected (key word) drug traffickers, offering absolutely no proof. Moving F-35’s to Puerto Rico to threaten other central and South American countries as well as Venezuela; under the guise of a drug war.
That said, even Trump’s covert (not so covert) campaign to sow chaos in Greenland hasn’t gone unnoticed, adding credence to the “three spheres of influence” theory in which the US gets all of the America’s, Putin takes Europe, and Xi gets Asia. This idea or theory is starting to look more and more credible by the day.
Bottom line: something nefarious is occurring and it definitely isn’t anything good. And if you add the economy busting tariffs, designed to weaken Europe’s economy, it all starts to look like a global conspiracy of world domination by three autocratic regimes. Just saying….:)
Europe will hope for change in these regimes as the pressure on Russia intensifies but even if not…
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
Being ousted from the EU would be disastrous for both countries economies & it would potentially open up numerous more fronts on the EU countries.
If it comes down to the wire they’ll have to make a call- and sooner rather than later Putin is not going to be a hill worth dying on.
Europe can manage these states into useful submission but veto’s everywhere including at the UN have to go.
Manage Hungry and Slovakia but don’t throw them back to the wolf ( wolves) - Putin is waiting.
That would be a smart play but they’re already under Putin’s thumb. Both countries continually undermine every attempt by the EU to help fund our Ukrainian allies; extorting them of billions of euros and causing time delays in the delivery critical military weapon systems.
At some point you need to cut your losses, and considering how Hungary has helped the religious fascists stage a coup in the US (Project 2025); it’s apparent they can never be trusted. I wouldn’t be shocked if both men have been compromised by the Russian’s (Kompromat).
Yep. They both are corrupt. There is nothing to save there. And don't forget the right wing hate machine around the world gets a lot money through this Putin-Orban nexus. Fico is working so hard to join.
I want to repost your reply. How, please?
I think you already did and thank you, you’re too kind..:)
When you look at the Russian casualty figures it’s hard to imagine that the United States lost somewhere over 50,000 men in about 10 years in Vietnam. I know the Russian figure of over 90,00 in just months includes wounded as well as dead, at least I’m assuming that, but still it is astonishing how little value they place on human life.
That is who he is.
One of the many traits that Putin and Trump share is that lives are only numbers on a page
Neither one has any empathy whatsoever
So true!!!
Historically, Russia has never valued human life.
That’s very true. The modern age has changed nothing.
merz has said that article seven will be used against them, hitting them in the pocket hurts the most
Yes. He is leading it. Hope he closes it.
A number of questions:
1. Would India benefit significantly by joining China and Russia? Presumably the latter is a questionable proposition as things worsen for Putin.
2. In terms of natural resources is Russia far ahead of Ukraine? The hat is really not clear to me.
3. What is your best guess about new munitions reaching Ukraine before the Russia offensive? Might this threat speed things up?
4. Pure specific platoon here, but if Ukraine could take out two more refineries in the near term, how badly hurt would Putin be?
5. You mentioned Russia pushing on its supply of heavily armored vehicles. How susceptible are these to drone bombing?
6. Lastly, the EU is finally dealing with Hungary and Slovakia to stop from being hamstrung by the Putin allies. What is being done?
7. Sorry I lied. One more question. What do you make of the report from credible sources that the U.S. is buying ages and diamonds from Russia? Just Trump supporting his best buddy?
I hope Ukraine is able to pull off another unexpected event within Russia, or take out more oil refineries, etc. The psychological toll on Putin appears to be significant. Poor Ukraine. I am so sorry the U.S. has treated them so shabbily. I guess we are about to see the War President becoming active in other locations.
Thank you so much for all your lucid analysis. I appreciate the notes of optimism where they exist.
1. No. China and India can never be allies. They are natural enemies, not allies. Right now, they only want an opportunistic alliance.
2.Bad comparison. Ukraine has close to $16 trillion worth of natural resources. For Russia, every additional resource increases its geopolitical strength. It’s the 10 million barrels per day that have allowed them to wage this war for so long. Now, they want Ukraine’s mineral fields to sink their teeth into the world of critical resources.
3.840 units are expected to arrive this month. But it’s not safe until they actually arrive. Musk and the Thiel group will be working overtime. On the right track, but nothing is safe until it’s in the warehouse.
4.Attacking refineries will not trigger an economic collapse. It will cause acute economic pain. Think of it more like a 20% tax on the Russian economy. It also drives inflation. It seeds chaos while increasing the cost of war.
5.They are not supplying huge numbers. After a lull, they brought them back. They don’t have many. Nothing big to worry about here. All will be taken out in due course. Two days ago, they launched an attack with 17 vehicles in the Pokrovsk sector. All were destroyed.
6.This has more to do with patching their own weaknesses. They want to shut them out or shut them down so they can move forward collectively. Less about Putin, more about self-interest for the EU — which, by the way, is actually connected.
7. No idea. Trump does like to play all sides when he can — sometimes even one side against the other.
It is my belief that the troops Putin is amassing for this planned offensive are of poor quality--hurriedly trained, ill equipped, and low morale. Most are unwillingly conscripted from Russian states or are soldiers, not fully recovered from previous battle injuries, being forced back to the front lines. Add to that the rampant corruption within the military, poorly maintained equipment and a compromised air defense system, and this looks like another Putin charade to convey non-existent strength. Ukraine's rapidly developing AI drones and their home-grown Flamingo missile will further cause Russia to continue faltering under economic, military and social unrest challenges. I don't think Russia will have much, if any, success this time around either.
Yes. It will be off poor quality. but it still strains Ukraine.
Wonderful analysis. Thank you.
Strong assessment, but no action plan. We inform like minded people on BlueSky and Restack. But we are not reaching very far outside the tent. And in order for democracy to survive this assault, we need massive numbers of political leaders on the street, face to face, screaming to audiences the details of the horror Trump’s fascist regime and his billionaire puppet masters have yet to force upon us.
Excellent analysis, Mr. Narayan. May Ukraine continue their pipeline warfare.
I sense some danger here with India pulling away from the West. Glad to see three signs the decay has stabilized.
I am very worried about France’s upcoming elections. It seem the right-wing may gain major seats.
Europe is not addressing whatever issues is causing the right wing to gain power over Europe. Same as in the US.
Defeat Putin before the elections. Job done.
I wish it was that easy, Mr. Narayan. Europe is facing austerity, busted long term yields, and rising right wing pressure. Democracy is under assault by Xi and his puppets.
This one is superb.
I don't know why not one head of state, when meeting Putin, doesn't just tell him to his face that he's a murderous thug who has destroyed his country. It's so odd so many powerful people grant him respect to his face. It's one thing to be a treacherous and murderous ruler and be successful and quite another to be a failure. It doesn't really matter what happens in the next few months. Even if Ukraine folded today it would be like the dog that caught the car and may have been even in 2022.
Thank you once again for your helpful and concise analysis. However, I’m not so sure about what you make of the numbers of losses. It seems that the KIA-WIA ratio is much higher despite the lower number of total losses per day. So that indeed would imply that Russia is losing even more soldiers, for instance: https://bsky.app/profile/madrykot316.bsky.social/post/3lyasebeuds2f