“This war is starting to shift — from the mud to the sky.”
From your mouth, to gods ears; let’s hope this plays out as expected. And one of the reasons that Putin is weak is because Trump is a wishy-washy weakling, not the master dealmaker he claims to be.
Too bad a good portion of America didn’t get the memo; his business acumen, or lack thereof; six bankruptcies and hundreds of business failures speak volumes to his overall competence.
Putin must be livid, and Trump as dazed and confused as usual. Honestly, I think the guy has dementia; he can’t even complete a sentence, and he just veers off into tangents that make even less sense than before. And this makes him dangerous, because we have no idea who’s really running the show!
My bet; it’s Vought and Miller and that’s a dangerous combination for those who believe in freedom and democracy!
Europe still has its job cut out to do. They need increase the fighter jet shipments. I have no idea what the full strength of the F16 and Mirage fleet is. When Europe started discussing F16s deliveries, they were looking at a potential (high end at the time) delivery of 60 units. With French Mirages, we were looking at 80 plus. This needs to be done. ASAP. That will be the first part. The second part will be to keep a steady plan to increase the fleet. It has to keep coming in. Every addition on this side, will start to dent Russia's airpower. Ukraine will go up and Russia will go down.
That’s a tough call, letting a mass megalomaniac like Poots regime survive in a weakened state. The alternative is another collapse of Russia like the USSR, with aircraft, nuclear subs, and nuclear weapons.
Given the choice, pass the sanctions and arm Ukraine with aircraft. It seems like Poots only way out. Ukraine will continue ramping up asymmetric warfare. I’m glad Spiderweb disrupted the massive death planned for the Istanbul talks.
Even if they pass a veto proof sanctions bill, the orange clown could still refuse to enforce it, an impeachment offense but these Republicans (unlike those during Watergate) would still back him
Calling my senators now. Public noise in support of Ukraine is one hand we as individuals have; another is the power to make donations to Ukraine and journalism that gets the truth out. It is not just in the big players’ hands. And I’m pretty sure Z has more cards. Only hindsight will show when the mortal blow lands, but it is coming for Putin and his brutal regime.
But...I'm not at all confident that Graham will bring the bill to the floor. As someone wrote, he's "magnetized to point directly at the GOP center of power". That power is still Trump, and Graham likes getting petted on the head.
Also, the sanctions called for are 500%. While warranted, they are set absurdly high. My second guess is this is intentional. If the bill moves, there will be prolonged discussions about what the actual sanctions level should be. All the while giving Trump time, to give Putin time, to "wrap up Ukraine".
Putin, fortunately, does not have time. His military is stretched thin, his air power is at least significantly impacted by Operation Spiderweb. We should expect a "big move" from Putin, somewhere along the border. Putin needs to either demonstrate that Russia can still hurt Ukraine - aside from killing civilians - or the support Putin has may disintegrate. Steady decline is no autocrat's friend.
China, is also a player here.
Aside from making Putin China's gas station attendant, China has a curiosity that only Putin's War can satisfy. The curiosity is this: Can China's planes, replacing Russia's losses, play a pivotal role in Putin's War?
Xi desperately wants to know this.
This is partially practical, China's Air Force is untested. And Partially competitive, North Korean Troops are getting battle training in Ukraine. China's sway over Kim is being diluted by Putin's embrace of North Korea.
Xi will need to decide whether his role in this war is spectator or participant. As Ukraine stands up, the time available to China to "save Putin" decreases. There's also the risk of China running into more western sanctions if they assist Russia in a more overt, meaningful way. In this sense, China may be contemplating moves which would precipitate WW III, or would see Russia fall far from its self-regarded position of a "first tier" power.
Side note. Anyone know if Ukraine has enough pilots to fly the additional F16's coming their way? This would seem relevant to the level of pressure Putin is actually feeling.
Fingers crossed on that one. Hopefully the pilots are ready to go.
If the past is prologue Putin will try and "retaliate" for the Spiderweb attacks. Though Ukrainians might just call such "Tuesday", Putin will try and generate some progress somewhere.
At what point must Ukraine reply to Putin's targeting of civilians with symmetrical targeting of their own? Hopefully not soon. Still hoping Ukraine did not launch all available drones, and have a nearby counterpunch ready in case of Putin escalations.
The June 1 raid probably raised major questions within Chinese leadership regarding their handling of the Russian imperialist war against Ukraine. The Chinese don’t like having things spin out of control in unpredictable ways. I wonder what and how many new contingencies they will consider?
Chinese social media lit up after the June 1 strike. There were many discussing the exact thing you are talking about. I was very surprised. But it was real.
Hmm... At best(?) Xi might allow Putin to give China Outer Mongolia. Putin is overseeing a decline in Russia's status. Operation Spiderweb was not just about bombing Russian planes and alerting major powers to a (a-hem vulnerability). It also pointed to the lax arrogance which has narrated Putin's entire War in Ukraine.
Xi must be asking himself questions about the real value of his alliance with Putin. Among these are likely what should China start to extract from Putin. Territory represents something more significant than might be apparent.
Xi likes to bask in the occasional adoration of his "nationalists" as he episodically demonstrates China's capacity and desire to "take Taiwan". The risks of doing so, so far, massively outweigh any gains. Xi's military is untested. Mass death is not a risk to be taken lightly (though ideology can sometimes salve the pain).
War with the US means a collapse of China's economy, minimally, and an unreachable EU economy. Not optimal.
But Territory can also assuage nationalists' ardor for their silly notion of China being the Center of the World (manifested in contemporary times in Xi's policy of 'Chinese Centrality" - think malevolent 8 year-olds asserting they rule the world). Whether that territory comes from Taiwan or some other location like Outer Mongolia may only matter to the degree Xi decides it does.
So accept OM as a gift from Putin, and use it to shut the nationalists up? Or risk catastrophic war with the West with its concomitant economic risks?
Your recommendation to the GOP mega-donors is an interesting one, but I wonder if they have the imagination and willingness to take it. I suspect that these billionaire inheritors are more risk-averse than we think and therefore unwilling to move into a more creative mindset.
"Or Ukraine will do what it’s getting dangerously close to doing: force Russia into a military defeat so total, so fast, that there won’t be a state left to negotiate with."
My views of the end-game of this conflict have become Draconian: Rus delenda est.
“This war is starting to shift — from the mud to the sky.”
From your mouth, to gods ears; let’s hope this plays out as expected. And one of the reasons that Putin is weak is because Trump is a wishy-washy weakling, not the master dealmaker he claims to be.
Too bad a good portion of America didn’t get the memo; his business acumen, or lack thereof; six bankruptcies and hundreds of business failures speak volumes to his overall competence.
Putin must be livid, and Trump as dazed and confused as usual. Honestly, I think the guy has dementia; he can’t even complete a sentence, and he just veers off into tangents that make even less sense than before. And this makes him dangerous, because we have no idea who’s really running the show!
My bet; it’s Vought and Miller and that’s a dangerous combination for those who believe in freedom and democracy!
Europe still has its job cut out to do. They need increase the fighter jet shipments. I have no idea what the full strength of the F16 and Mirage fleet is. When Europe started discussing F16s deliveries, they were looking at a potential (high end at the time) delivery of 60 units. With French Mirages, we were looking at 80 plus. This needs to be done. ASAP. That will be the first part. The second part will be to keep a steady plan to increase the fleet. It has to keep coming in. Every addition on this side, will start to dent Russia's airpower. Ukraine will go up and Russia will go down.
That’s a tough call, letting a mass megalomaniac like Poots regime survive in a weakened state. The alternative is another collapse of Russia like the USSR, with aircraft, nuclear subs, and nuclear weapons.
Given the choice, pass the sanctions and arm Ukraine with aircraft. It seems like Poots only way out. Ukraine will continue ramping up asymmetric warfare. I’m glad Spiderweb disrupted the massive death planned for the Istanbul talks.
Thank you for your insights. You are the best writer, by far, on the current state of the war.
Thx, Jason..
Great article! Deep look at US positioning and balance in Russia-Ukraine war.
Even if they pass a veto proof sanctions bill, the orange clown could still refuse to enforce it, an impeachment offense but these Republicans (unlike those during Watergate) would still back him
A friendly reminder, call your congressional rep and senator to put (and enforce) further sanctions on Russia.
Then, if you wish, link to United24.gov.ua to donate to Ukraine with humanitarian and/or military funds. You choose where your donation goes.
it is said that you should never kick a man when he is down, putin is down and deserves a good kicking
He is not fully down yet. He is still sitting on a boat load of missiles. But his situation will keep going down from here.
Check out Alexei Navalny’s (bless him) very funny documentary about Dmitri Medvdev (and his dancing shoes!) called “Don’t Call Me Dimon” 😂
Calling my senators now. Public noise in support of Ukraine is one hand we as individuals have; another is the power to make donations to Ukraine and journalism that gets the truth out. It is not just in the big players’ hands. And I’m pretty sure Z has more cards. Only hindsight will show when the mortal blow lands, but it is coming for Putin and his brutal regime.
Yes. The Russia sanctions bill is ready. It will help. Thanks.
Agree that the sanctions bill should pass.
But...I'm not at all confident that Graham will bring the bill to the floor. As someone wrote, he's "magnetized to point directly at the GOP center of power". That power is still Trump, and Graham likes getting petted on the head.
Also, the sanctions called for are 500%. While warranted, they are set absurdly high. My second guess is this is intentional. If the bill moves, there will be prolonged discussions about what the actual sanctions level should be. All the while giving Trump time, to give Putin time, to "wrap up Ukraine".
Putin, fortunately, does not have time. His military is stretched thin, his air power is at least significantly impacted by Operation Spiderweb. We should expect a "big move" from Putin, somewhere along the border. Putin needs to either demonstrate that Russia can still hurt Ukraine - aside from killing civilians - or the support Putin has may disintegrate. Steady decline is no autocrat's friend.
China, is also a player here.
Aside from making Putin China's gas station attendant, China has a curiosity that only Putin's War can satisfy. The curiosity is this: Can China's planes, replacing Russia's losses, play a pivotal role in Putin's War?
Xi desperately wants to know this.
This is partially practical, China's Air Force is untested. And Partially competitive, North Korean Troops are getting battle training in Ukraine. China's sway over Kim is being diluted by Putin's embrace of North Korea.
Xi will need to decide whether his role in this war is spectator or participant. As Ukraine stands up, the time available to China to "save Putin" decreases. There's also the risk of China running into more western sanctions if they assist Russia in a more overt, meaningful way. In this sense, China may be contemplating moves which would precipitate WW III, or would see Russia fall far from its self-regarded position of a "first tier" power.
Side note. Anyone know if Ukraine has enough pilots to fly the additional F16's coming their way? This would seem relevant to the level of pressure Putin is actually feeling.
No idea. They have nicely kept it under wraps. As far as I know France and Romania have been training UKR pilots for a while.
Fingers crossed on that one. Hopefully the pilots are ready to go.
If the past is prologue Putin will try and "retaliate" for the Spiderweb attacks. Though Ukrainians might just call such "Tuesday", Putin will try and generate some progress somewhere.
At what point must Ukraine reply to Putin's targeting of civilians with symmetrical targeting of their own? Hopefully not soon. Still hoping Ukraine did not launch all available drones, and have a nearby counterpunch ready in case of Putin escalations.
The June 1 raid probably raised major questions within Chinese leadership regarding their handling of the Russian imperialist war against Ukraine. The Chinese don’t like having things spin out of control in unpredictable ways. I wonder what and how many new contingencies they will consider?
How interested would Xi be in regaining the Outer Mongolia territory that Russia took from them in the 19th century?
Chinese social media lit up after the June 1 strike. There were many discussing the exact thing you are talking about. I was very surprised. But it was real.
Hmm... At best(?) Xi might allow Putin to give China Outer Mongolia. Putin is overseeing a decline in Russia's status. Operation Spiderweb was not just about bombing Russian planes and alerting major powers to a (a-hem vulnerability). It also pointed to the lax arrogance which has narrated Putin's entire War in Ukraine.
Xi must be asking himself questions about the real value of his alliance with Putin. Among these are likely what should China start to extract from Putin. Territory represents something more significant than might be apparent.
Xi likes to bask in the occasional adoration of his "nationalists" as he episodically demonstrates China's capacity and desire to "take Taiwan". The risks of doing so, so far, massively outweigh any gains. Xi's military is untested. Mass death is not a risk to be taken lightly (though ideology can sometimes salve the pain).
War with the US means a collapse of China's economy, minimally, and an unreachable EU economy. Not optimal.
But Territory can also assuage nationalists' ardor for their silly notion of China being the Center of the World (manifested in contemporary times in Xi's policy of 'Chinese Centrality" - think malevolent 8 year-olds asserting they rule the world). Whether that territory comes from Taiwan or some other location like Outer Mongolia may only matter to the degree Xi decides it does.
So accept OM as a gift from Putin, and use it to shut the nationalists up? Or risk catastrophic war with the West with its concomitant economic risks?
Hmm...
Your recommendation to the GOP mega-donors is an interesting one, but I wonder if they have the imagination and willingness to take it. I suspect that these billionaire inheritors are more risk-averse than we think and therefore unwilling to move into a more creative mindset.
They are probably confused. But I am only reading from the social media signals. god knows what these dark lords are doing when the light goes off.
"Or Ukraine will do what it’s getting dangerously close to doing: force Russia into a military defeat so total, so fast, that there won’t be a state left to negotiate with."
My views of the end-game of this conflict have become Draconian: Rus delenda est.
That option entered the frame on June 1. Now it is upto Europe to make it real.
Keep the facts flowing…the message is getting out! Thank you
Love this! Thank you!!👌. 👍👍
From your lips to some god's ears.
dawg actually believes 40 jets were destroyed 🤣🤣🤣🤣