Germany Confirms Patriot Deal: Five Systems Headed to Ukraine
Done.
Yesterday marked the 29th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group—better known as the "Ramstein format"—held in hybrid form on 21 July 2025. It was co-chaired by UK Defence Secretary John Healey and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. Notably absent was U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who skipped the meeting entirely—physically and virtually.
Maybe the Pentagon’s internet was down. Or maybe Hegseth just prefers to strategize on Signal these days.
Still, the adults were in the room. Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Alexus Grynkewich, showed up—and unlike many in Washington, he actually understands the operational reality on the ground, and what Ukraine’s allies need to do next.
And the meeting delivered.
The announcement everyone had been waiting for finally came:
Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that Germany will transfer five Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine, along with 200,000 Gepard shells. Pistorius personally reaffirmed the pledge—five Patriots, with full interceptor support.
Norway also stepped up, pledging $1.67 billion to support Ukraine’s drone procurement in 2025 and to help share the cost burden of those Patriots.
Before we get to one very important announcement from the United Kingdom, let’s first settle the noise still swirling around the Patriot systems.
A whole lot of people—on Substack, across social media, even among seasoned analysts—simply refused to believe that the Trump administration would follow through on its commitment to send Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine. To be fair, the skepticism wasn’t baseless. In three years of war, the United States has delivered just two Patriot systems to Ukraine. Meanwhile, more than half of the long-range and medium-range air-defense systems protecting the Ukrainian sky have come from Germany.
So when Washington says, “We’re ready to send Patriots,” the instinctive reaction—“yeah, right”—is understandable. But that’s the danger of projecting the past onto the future. Politicians are politicians.
When the wind shifts, they drop the sails.
Even after the Swiss government publicly confirmed that the U.S. Department of Defense had informed them their order for five Patriots—originally slated for delivery in 2026 and 2027—had been bumped down the queue, many still refused to see this as a sign that the systems were headed to Ukraine. Then, to my bewilderment, some well-known experts began confidently predicting that Ukraine would receive those Patriots in the first half of 2026.
They simply took Switzerland’s delivery timeline and extrapolated it for Ukraine. I didn’t even bother engaging them. What they completely missed was that Germany had been the key player in this procurement process all along. From the very first day of the January 2023 announcement—when the U.S. said it would clear Patriots for Ukraine—Germany stood shoulder to shoulder in that pledge.
Since then, Germany has almost single-handedly managed Ukraine’s air-defense procurement. They never stopped. And they never gave up.
On July 3rd, after realizing that the Pentagon had quietly halted military aid to Ukraine, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz picked up the phone and called Donald Trump directly. His proposal: “If you’re going to stop the aid, let us buy the weapons ourselves.” Trump, apparently unaware that aid had even been halted, listened. The moment clearly aligned with our own July 4th analysis.
During that call, Merz told Trump he wanted to buy Patriot systems from the U.S. Trump didn’t say yes. He didn’t say no. But on July 11th, he called Merz back and said he was ready to sell.
That report became the cornerstone of my confidence in the deal. I never doubted it for a second. Because when a head of state makes a private promise to another head of state, they usually keep it.
It’s almost a code.
What I did fear was delay. That fear didn’t go away until Switzerland confirmed they had been pushed down the Patriot delivery queue. And today, that fear is dead. Germany has announced the deal is done.
So, when will Ukraine get the next set of Patriots?
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Alexus Grynkewich have made one thing very clear over the past few days: don’t expect a running list of what’s being delivered, when, and from where.
I agree. It’s absurd to keep announcing every unit being transferred. That era is over. From now on, expect government communications about deliveries to be vague, or simply non-existent. We’ll have to infer things from ground movements, not press releases.
Here’s what we do know: Germany is now coordinating with other nations that currently operate Patriot systems to identify which ones are willing to pool their units. That discussion is ongoing. Most likely, Germany will release two of its own systems for immediate transfer. The remaining three will be drawn from other Patriot operators once consensus is reached.
Best-case scenario?
Within six months, all five systems will be in place inside Ukraine.
There’s no official confirmation of what I am about to say now—and we won’t get one—but based on the pace and the urgency, the odds are high that Ukraine will receive at least three full batteries of Patriots. That’s potentially 24 launchers. The other two could be two fire units, the basic configration needed for a functional Patriot system.
Germany has also confirmed it will handle interceptor procurement.
The result?
Ukraine’s long-range air-defense capability is about to jump by roughly 50%. That’s huge. And it’s going to have a real impact on interception rates. Based on recent Russian strikes, the number of missiles being used has gone down, while drone usage has gone up. That shift tracks perfectly with Russia’s economic constraints. Putin is throwing rubles at drones and rationing his missile production lines.
Ukraine now faces a curious dilemma: in the coming months, its long-range air-defense posture will be solid across the theater, while its short-range and drone-defense systems will be stretched thin. That’s not a bad thing—it just requires a procurement and planning adjustment.
But let’s be clear: if the alliance keeps playing only defense, the war will grind on for months—maybe even into late next year. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like they’re asleep at the wheel. During the Ramstein meeting, UK Defense Secretary John Healey announced that the allies will launch a “50-day drive” to arm Ukraine more aggressively and push Putin to the negotiating table.
Now, if that number—50 days—sounds familiar, it should. It’s exactly what Trump announced: 50 days for Putin to agree to a ceasefire or face severe sanctions. Let’s not split hairs on the math between Trump’s announcement and Healey’s timing. No one wants to headline a “43-day plan” just because the calendars didn’t sync.
So, they stuck to the same date. Simple.
And I’ve saved the best for last.
Just days before the Ramstein meeting, General Alexus Grynkewich made a statement that landed with far more weight than any press release:
“My directive is clear — to ensure that the Ukrainians receive everything they need to defend themselves. Obviously, this includes offensive weapons as well, so many more steps will be taken. We will act as quickly as possible.”
That’s not just a signal.
That’s a doctrine shift.
And to be honest, I’m relieved Pete Hegseth didn’t show up. Ramstein meetings are for serious people, not cable-news.
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Now that Germany is picking up the banner of world leadership that the US has dropped, we have finally come full circle on WWII. Germany is the hero now!
Good news, and the sooner it materializes, the better. Every day my heart bleeds for the innocents whose lives are being shredded in this so-called conflict, which is a war of egregious aggression, fomented by a psychopath who wants nothing more than to cling to power, no matter the cost to human life and wellbeing. One of several similar known and lesser known 'conflicts' around the world. At last, Europe is facing up to the fact that we must stop Putin, at least, dead in his tracks. Fingers crossed.