General Caine Pulls Off the Unthinkable for Ukraine, Europe and the United States
Even when chaos explodes around you by the hour, if you can focus, you will always remain in position to win.
A couple of weeks ago, when one of our readers, Alexandra Barcus, asked me if we were safe—if we could breathe easy after Trump’s administration made a few important moves to strengthen NATO—I told her, “Not yet.”
There was a reason I said that. One thing still needed to happen—something only General Caine could do. Until then, we could not exhale. I didn’t tell her what it was. Some moves are better left unspoken until they’re complete. With the kinds of people on the other side inside the administration, silence was necessary.
Yes, it was that important.
And now, it is done.
For the first time since the start of the war— 1,281 days after Putin invaded a democratic nation—the United States has approved the sale of offensive weapons at volumes that matter.
Yesterday, the Department of Defense cleared the sale:
Ukraine – Air Delivered Munitions
WASHINGTON, August 28, 2025 - The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Ukraine of Air Delivered Munitions and related equipment for an estimated cost of $825 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress.
Ukraine will use funding from Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway and Foreign Military Financing from the United States for this purchase. The ERAM is an example of working together with our NATO allies to develop a capable and scalable system capable of being delivered on a fast timeline.
A scalable system capable of being delivered on a fast timeline? I never thought I’d hear those words from the United States—but here we are.
General Caine understands the challenges in front of him. He does not underestimate the hostile nature of the environment he operates in. Just look at the sheer amount of time it took him to reach the most critical point of allied deterrence.
First, there was the discussion and decision over sending air-defense systems to Ukraine through Europe. After this first move, the United States moved its most advanced nuclear weapons to an RAF base in Lakenheath, United Kingdom. Then came a huge order to boost air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles for the U.S. Army and the allies, a move that will expand production lines. Next was a small—but very impactful—order to build 33k AI-powered strike kits to give Ukraine’s drones a decisive edge.
And finally, the order to deliver 3,350 ERAM missiles to Ukraine.
Number of key decisions taken before reaching this spot: 4.
Amount of time elapsed: 48 days. (Decision 1 —> 5)
Caine could have led with the ERAMs, but at the time it made no sense—given the environment he was operating in and the way the enemy would have exploited any weakness.
Think about it. If the U.S. had delivered a ton of offensive weapons but left a gaping hole in air-defense, what would have happened? Putin would have hammered launch locations and wasted a fortune in money, resources, and time. That is why Caine moved to strengthen the air-defense layer first.
Two long-range air-defense units have already been delivered to Ukraine. The arrival of ERAMs and Belgium’s F-16s makes me believe that the next batch of Patriots (3 units) will arrive soon.
Caine consistently refuses to pick unwinnable fights, demonstrating his keen understanding that politics at this level is unavoidable. His restraint is driven by a clear desire to win.
The mathematics of victory would have been simple: deliver Tomahawk missiles and a dozen launchers to Ukraine. Money isn't the constraint, nor is stock availability. But this single move, despite being potentially war-winning, would have triggered a political firestorm that could have brought down his entire agenda.
So Caine has avoided that option—for now. But he's clearly keeping it in his sights, waiting for the right opening. With Tomahawks and other key surface-to-surface missiles temporarily off the table due to political constraints, he's pivoted to the next best strategic option: massively upgrading Ukrainian air force firepower. It's a calculated compromise that advances his objectives while preserving his political capital for future battles.
While Caine was orchestrating orders stateside, General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, was working his counterparts across the continent. His pressure campaign on Belgium finally paid off, securing their commitment to deliver the long-promised F-16s to Ukraine.
Belgium's track record has been frustratingly inconsistent from the start. Their initial announcement set a vague 2026 delivery target—so nebulous it seemed designed to delay until the war's end. Now, however, they're preparing to deliver a batch next month. The timing isn't coincidental: these F-16s will arrive simultaneously with the ERAMs. This coordination between Caine and Grynkewich represents the U.S. and NATO allies operating in perfect lockstep.
Picture the entire theater—Europe and Ukraine united against Russian imperialism—as a cube. All sides remain vulnerable until each is bolted securely into place. There are dozens of bolts to drive, but you can only work one side at a time, methodically building an unbreakable structure.
Yet significant obstacles remain. Trump himself poses a problem, believing he can secure a deal with Putin—while Putin wants anything but a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, certain factions within the administration actively resist locking the cube into place, understanding that success would end their dream of breaking the EU apart.
These factions exist inside the Pentagon itself. And then there's Tulsi Gabbard.
General Caine's only advantage is the decisive win he delivered to Trump on Iran—a clear, undeniable victory. During the planning phase for strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, intelligence assessments would have warned that Iran would likely close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. When Trump turned to his generals, most would have confirmed this probability. General Caine most likely presented Trump with a clear plan and timeline.
The operation required significant mobilization and presidential approval. Trump gave the green light. When the strikes hit, Iran never even attempted their Hormuz chokehold strategy—their most feared retaliation simply evaporated. Trump will never forget that moment of complete strategic dominance.
Trump operates in binaries—win or lose, success or failure. Caine delivered him a clean win on Iran, and Trump recognizes that if he listens to his general, he'll get the same result against Russia. Trump understands this capability sits in his hands, likely keeping Caine as his strategic fallback option.
Caine is leveraging that position methodically, closing the cube one side and one bolt at a time, building toward an outcome that neutralizes Russian imperialism while Trump still believes he's pursuing diplomacy.
Is there anything Europe can do to help the Generals?
Absolutely.
Their role is critical, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
The recent sale of 3,350 ERAMs represents a breakthrough—the first successful execution of the PURL scheme, where allies pool resources to purchase weapons for Ukraine. This model works, but it's just the beginning of what Europe must accomplish.
The most urgent priority is securing a steady pipeline of F-16s. The current approach—scattered, unpredictable deliveries with months-long gaps—offers Ukraine no operational clarity and undermines strategic planning. Delivering one batch in January, another in May, and a third in December creates the worst possible scenario: insufficient aircraft arriving at random intervals when Ukraine desperately needs predictable force buildup.
Europe must establish a regular, reliable stream of F-16 deliveries—ideally one substantial batch per quarter. This isn't just about numbers; it's about giving Ukraine the confidence to plan multi-phase operations and build sustainable air capabilities. The UK or France should step up to coordinate this effort, leveraging their diplomatic weight and military expertise.
More fundamentally, both London and Paris need to stop their practice of dumping responsibility on Germany's shoulders. This burden-shifting is not only unfair—it's strategically counterproductive. Chancellor Merz and Defense Minister Pistorius are performing excellently under enormous pressure, but they shouldn't be carrying the alliance's load alone while other major powers operate from the shadows.
It's time for the UK and France to fully own their share of this fight.
They must take direct responsibility for training Ukrainian pilots, coordinate aircraft procurement across NATO allies, and work relentlessly—every single day—to identify the next available F-16s that can be transferred to Ukraine. The cube Caine is methodically assembling requires every major European power pulling their full weight, not just Germany doing the heavy lifting while others offer moral support from the sidelines.
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Five stars. This analysis is a thing of beauty. You make everything from the political in Europe and the U.S. to th military considerations to the hardware production and delivery crystal clear. It all makes perfect sense. And you have answered all my annoying questions. This is good news indeed. Ukraine will be supported steadily by multiple sources. And the cube analogy of how this must happen step-wise makes perfect sense.
I had not realized that Caine had, of course, delivered the goods regarding Iran. That gives him serious credibility with the decision maker in chief.
Recent events with Russia bombing an EU building in Ukraine and with drone flyovers of EU territory should be ratcheting up the alarm in the EU and Britain. This is their fight and it is scheduled for the near term Clearly Canada stepping up in a big way right now sends a message to the EU (and tremendous support), and it sends a signal to the White House, despite Trump’s comments, that a win against Russia is possible. And Carney is a master of financial planning. He knows Russia cannot have breathing space.
I only hope Putin will cease to put everything on the line by bombing Ukraine so heavily in civilian areas..If he continues it will only strengthen the resolve of the opposition and the ferocity with which he will be taken down.
Thank you, Shankar for all your hard work. The world, at least the US, has seemed pretty dark recently. Now I have real hope.
This is a helpful and important review of the current military atmosphere around Ukraine’s defense. Understanding General Caine’s role in these shifts in the allied support for Ukraine helps me at least feel hopeful.
But I would differ with you over your more polite phrase “Trump deals in binaries” and instead better understand that Trump sees only zero sum games and actions where any time others win, either a point or an issue, he himself must be losing. And like the fool he is, he’s easily manipulated by Putin and cannot forgive Zelenskyy for being the leader he wishes others saw him as being.