Well that is heavy duty good news. Shutting down India and Nord Stream constitutes two huge wins. The more back room methods Russia has for handling oil the better obviously. And Europe has been taking major, decisive steps that way. The shadow fleet watch party and cutting out India will have Putin grinding his teeth and watching his back. The market cap on oil is going to send shockwaves through his coterie. But then the oil top bureaucrats in Russia seem to be suffering from the Moscow syndrome of window dysmorphia—the need to defenestrate oneself when the going gets tricky with the boss.
The EU is doing great things. Now we need to expose Trump’s bogus, unilateral promises of arms for Ukraine for what they are—not immediate solutions, everything bought and paid for (not aid), and subject to the whims of the U.S. unitary executive. This is not fun and games. Trump doesn’t seem to feel massive numbers of deaths as more than an accounting problem—a ledger sheet in Ukraine and the Middle East.He ultimately can’t bring himself to hurt Putin’s feelings. I hope the world recognizes this regime for its two-faced promises. We are not a reliable ally any longer. And the President’s word is not good for much.
Yea. Sorry for the delay. I couldn't hold back on the other ones.
Hold on with the Trump one. I understand and you know me as I was the first one to write that Trump and GOP will go after Medicaid and it did happen. Jan first week I think.
On the same breadth I am saying now Trump is highly likely to arm Ukraine. A lot depends on the next Trump Putin call. So, keep an open slate. As Trump has two generals who has got his ears and Trump is drifting steadily towards Merz.
Ok. You have never steered me wrong. Trump is just so duplicitous. I forwarded a post to you from a woman in Kyiv. Her frequent posts give a regular person’s look at the war. She spends most of her nights in the metro. The cruelty in Ukraine and Gaza makes me ill. I really think Trump is completely devoid of empathy.
What do you think of recent defenestrations? Does Putin have a goal other than collecting money from his oligarchs? I do hope he is grinding his teeth after the EU moves.
As far as I can make out, some of Trump’s recent announcements have been made without prior consultation with other parties involved. Is that your understanding? Sorry if I am telling you things you discussed—I have a bit of an info overload at the moment! I am so very grateful for all your terrific work. Sorry if it interferes with your sleep hygiene.
And yes, Trump himself did not make it to this spot three weeks ago. It all happened after the Colby guy opened the door for all of us. So, if Trump himself was not aware, how will anyone in Europe know. So, that is not an issue. When the war ends, and if it ends with Tomohawk missiles delivered to Ukraine, then we all have one guy to thank for.
Colby.
And by the way, dont tell anyone. US moved B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk,UK some time last week. First time in a very very long time. Putin got the message. Remember the doctrine of restraint..
Excellent. Mum’s the word. Wrote my last note before I read this one. Sorry.
And yes, you have indeed been prescient on many issues. I always stick with your guidance because you manage to weave together a massive number of inputs in a compelling way that tends to jive with what eventually happens. Was it Pistorius you wanted to work for? He would be lucky.
The situation is extremely complex inside Russia right now. Putin is not in full distress, but that day is not too far off. He has started cutting spending at an alarming speed. How and in what format that will filter down to the field, no one knows. The best path foward for Ukraine is to keep doing what they are doing right now.
Ukraine has been very clever in their choice of attacks. They appear to be strategically so far superior to Russia. I just hate to have the killing go on and on when it could be stopped relatively easily. But I suppose that is what war is all about.
I am always interested in the use of deception and alternate techniques in war. My great uncle was a Jedburgh. He was dropped into France just outside Paris. His job was to report on the Boche in Paris and help train the maquis. He was disguised as an Argentinian orange salesman. He died when a group of intelligence officers were blown up in their plane before takeoff to the Burma theatre.
Wow, what a smart comment. It showcased knowledge and EU Regions, essentially is why I commented - born and raised in Sweden, Stockholm City. Been a Democrat all trough my life, anyway that venue is my pov. Thanx
If not done, severely diminished. I am taken back to 2003 in Budapest (long before Orban), and talking with my European regulatory colleagues that they viewed Russian gas as a blessing still in the honeymoon period post Cold War. I reminded them of history and that Russia having a virtual monopoly will ultimately use it as a weapon. I was told that I was crazy. Things have changed. I insisted given my training as a historian specializing in Russia/USSR military and diplomatic history. I was met with further denials.
It took less than a decade to show that with cuts through Ukraine, yet nobody paid attention and the Nord Stream projects were built. So, 22 years later the lesson has finally been learned.
They will still try to supply to Turkey. But here is the problem. Once you lose the pipeline, the competitive advantage is gone. The pricing power flips the other way like a switch. That is the real killer of the future for Russian gas.
This was the “old model” of gas in the US way back. The pipeline also controlled the gas giving it market power. That changed with wellhead deregulation which opened up commodity to competition. Gazprom will now face true competition for gas selling elsewhere. Plus they will be constrained by pipeline capacity that may be reserved by others selling elsewhere.
Well me either my friend, and I live in the EU capital IT FEELS LIKE at least, living in Stockholm,Sweden. Im exhausted by the rot thats now even more free to dance trough every GOP on earth with Mr.Dumps Ludacris regulations and what not. He really set his sights on eradication of My Class of Peers - 'The Middle Class'. And Im not poiting any unnecessary fingers at any specific person, given the fact that I live in Sweden. Thanx for reading my comment! Robbie of Stockholm, Sweden. 🩵💙🩵💦✌️🙏
I am speechless! I have to absorb all this. I will go back and read it and reread it- news that just seems too good to be true. Finally, the world is beginning to pay attention the way it should have for what seems to be an excruciatingly long time!
Thanks for taking the time to respond. Very helpful.
I didn't know that Russia was pressing for Nordstream re-opening as part of their negotiations. That detail puts clarity into your praise for the EU actions, and importance for cutting off that Russian approach.
Similarly your reply below about the utility of lowering the oil price cap yielding results over time provides some "why" to your praise of the action. I'd like to see you report on how the oil sanctions actually work sometime.
Your reply below about India wanting Western support when they executed Operation Sindoor doesn't appear in the article, and you state there that no response from the west was appropriate. So I missed the connection you point out below that India keeps buying Russian oil which supports terrorism and the Ukraine War. And it's great the the EU took unilateral price sanctions that apply to the Indian oil market. Perhaps it will help bleed Russia.
Will do now because I was so pissed off with the EU and would have gone on a rant. So kept away to keep my anger down. Now will be a good time to open that box..
Thank you for your most excellent insights. I am just an old retired woman, but I have followed Putin with trepidation and growing horror, since he first stepped out of the shadows. The news regarding oil is long awaited.
I like your reporting, especially on Ukraine, and am happy to support your journalism. I'm not so impressed with this piece however. I think sleeping on it another day might have caused you to rewrite it for clarity. The thesis of Gasprom dying because the EU placed sanctions on maintenance contracts belies the fact that Nordstream 2 never piped any gas and Nordstream 1 shut down deliveries in September 2021. It would also be helpful to remind us of the underseas explosions in September of 2022 destroying the pipelines, which seems to me makes the touted EU Nordstream maintenance sanctions moot. Or at least less warranting of high praise. No individual or collective EU member(s) would take on the pipeline repair anyway due to the immense cost you noted, at this time anyway. And the successful development of alternate gas supplies make the pipelines far less relevant. Who knows about the future though....
The EU dropping the Rosneft price cap 15% below market cap could use some perspective of how the price cap is enforced. "Shadow" tankers moving Russian oil have been consistently in the news evading sanctions. Do you expect a crackdown on that evasion?
I don't see a connection between the EU's oil sanctions and India's anti-terrorism actions in Pakistan. Seems like a separate story.
I have to respectfully disagree with the concerns raised here.
Nord Stream hasn’t pumped anything for over two years, so why bother with sanctions now: The reason is that this move puts any effort to resurrect Nord Stream permanently out of reach. The Kremlin has been trying to make the pipeline’s revival a key part of its negotiations with the United States.
Enforcement has always been a challenge for Europe—they tend to play around the edges. But lowering the price cap encourages many buyers to voluntarily reduce the price they pay. Over time, this exerts pressure on Russia and pushes them to offer discounts themselves.
The third point is far more interconnected than it seems on the surface. This is geopolitics. India wants EU support when it goes on the offensive, but refuses to return the favor when Europe is under pressure? This isn’t a situation where you ask for permission—you push for reconciliation between the two wants.
My understanding from the post is that russia can no longer use the reopening of nord stream as a negotiating tactic which seriously weakens Russia’s hand
I think Xi no longer selling drones to Ukraine or Europe bc they’re going to russia is now out in the open. Plus Xi said China can’t afford for Russia to lose the war!!! Now we need to move on China before it moves on Taiwan.
It was clearly impossible for Europe to completely wean themselves off of Russian oil so I guess the fact that it has happened could be considered a true miracle.
Your simple sentence put my heart at ease James. As I am a swedish democrat living in Stockholm. So uttermost affected by this Ukraine/Russia war and living so close next to a STILL LIVING Dictator feels not only backwards, but stagnant now as well. So your simple sentence put me at ease. Thanx!!!
Russian gas was a godsend for us Europeans: it was cheap, of good quality, and—above all—convenient to have.
The myth of Germany's economic strength was, for many years, built precisely on this cheap gas.
However, as you also pointed out, relying on a single supplier is incredibly risky. In fact, Germany was hit hard when Russian gas was banned from Europe, and little by little we almost completely stopped using it.
As an Italian, I can say that we were very smart in securing deals with other countries, and today Russian gas accounts for an insignificant percentage of our supply—possibly even zero.
American gas, on the other hand, is more expensive and more difficult to transport. It’s simply not convenient for us to use.
By abandoning Russian gas, we ultimately hurt ourselves—but it had to be done. Russia must be weakened, and the fewer resources it has, the better.
To me, the real alternative is not buying gas from the Americans. The real alternative is switching to nuclear energy, as France has done.
We already have the technology within the European Union—we don’t need anything more than to start building reactors everywhere and electrify everything.
That would also have a positive impact on air quality and pollution.
I've been advocating for nuclear energy in Italy for years, but unfortunately, we don’t have it. And in other countries, like Germany, they’ve even decided to phase it out.
Sometimes, we Europeans are just plain stupid. Stupid, us!
Well that is heavy duty good news. Shutting down India and Nord Stream constitutes two huge wins. The more back room methods Russia has for handling oil the better obviously. And Europe has been taking major, decisive steps that way. The shadow fleet watch party and cutting out India will have Putin grinding his teeth and watching his back. The market cap on oil is going to send shockwaves through his coterie. But then the oil top bureaucrats in Russia seem to be suffering from the Moscow syndrome of window dysmorphia—the need to defenestrate oneself when the going gets tricky with the boss.
The EU is doing great things. Now we need to expose Trump’s bogus, unilateral promises of arms for Ukraine for what they are—not immediate solutions, everything bought and paid for (not aid), and subject to the whims of the U.S. unitary executive. This is not fun and games. Trump doesn’t seem to feel massive numbers of deaths as more than an accounting problem—a ledger sheet in Ukraine and the Middle East.He ultimately can’t bring himself to hurt Putin’s feelings. I hope the world recognizes this regime for its two-faced promises. We are not a reliable ally any longer. And the President’s word is not good for much.
Yea. Sorry for the delay. I couldn't hold back on the other ones.
Hold on with the Trump one. I understand and you know me as I was the first one to write that Trump and GOP will go after Medicaid and it did happen. Jan first week I think.
On the same breadth I am saying now Trump is highly likely to arm Ukraine. A lot depends on the next Trump Putin call. So, keep an open slate. As Trump has two generals who has got his ears and Trump is drifting steadily towards Merz.
Ok. You have never steered me wrong. Trump is just so duplicitous. I forwarded a post to you from a woman in Kyiv. Her frequent posts give a regular person’s look at the war. She spends most of her nights in the metro. The cruelty in Ukraine and Gaza makes me ill. I really think Trump is completely devoid of empathy.
What do you think of recent defenestrations? Does Putin have a goal other than collecting money from his oligarchs? I do hope he is grinding his teeth after the EU moves.
As far as I can make out, some of Trump’s recent announcements have been made without prior consultation with other parties involved. Is that your understanding? Sorry if I am telling you things you discussed—I have a bit of an info overload at the moment! I am so very grateful for all your terrific work. Sorry if it interferes with your sleep hygiene.
And yes, Trump himself did not make it to this spot three weeks ago. It all happened after the Colby guy opened the door for all of us. So, if Trump himself was not aware, how will anyone in Europe know. So, that is not an issue. When the war ends, and if it ends with Tomohawk missiles delivered to Ukraine, then we all have one guy to thank for.
Colby.
And by the way, dont tell anyone. US moved B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk,UK some time last week. First time in a very very long time. Putin got the message. Remember the doctrine of restraint..
Excellent. Mum’s the word. Wrote my last note before I read this one. Sorry.
And yes, you have indeed been prescient on many issues. I always stick with your guidance because you manage to weave together a massive number of inputs in a compelling way that tends to jive with what eventually happens. Was it Pistorius you wanted to work for? He would be lucky.
Yes. I might ask him straight.
The situation is extremely complex inside Russia right now. Putin is not in full distress, but that day is not too far off. He has started cutting spending at an alarming speed. How and in what format that will filter down to the field, no one knows. The best path foward for Ukraine is to keep doing what they are doing right now.
Ukraine has been very clever in their choice of attacks. They appear to be strategically so far superior to Russia. I just hate to have the killing go on and on when it could be stopped relatively easily. But I suppose that is what war is all about.
I am always interested in the use of deception and alternate techniques in war. My great uncle was a Jedburgh. He was dropped into France just outside Paris. His job was to report on the Boche in Paris and help train the maquis. He was disguised as an Argentinian orange salesman. He died when a group of intelligence officers were blown up in their plane before takeoff to the Burma theatre.
Wow, what a smart comment. It showcased knowledge and EU Regions, essentially is why I commented - born and raised in Sweden, Stockholm City. Been a Democrat all trough my life, anyway that venue is my pov. Thanx
"One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic."
Attr. to Stalin.
What a freaking evil of a human being.
Yes, he was.
If not done, severely diminished. I am taken back to 2003 in Budapest (long before Orban), and talking with my European regulatory colleagues that they viewed Russian gas as a blessing still in the honeymoon period post Cold War. I reminded them of history and that Russia having a virtual monopoly will ultimately use it as a weapon. I was told that I was crazy. Things have changed. I insisted given my training as a historian specializing in Russia/USSR military and diplomatic history. I was met with further denials.
It took less than a decade to show that with cuts through Ukraine, yet nobody paid attention and the Nord Stream projects were built. So, 22 years later the lesson has finally been learned.
They will still try to supply to Turkey. But here is the problem. Once you lose the pipeline, the competitive advantage is gone. The pricing power flips the other way like a switch. That is the real killer of the future for Russian gas.
This was the “old model” of gas in the US way back. The pipeline also controlled the gas giving it market power. That changed with wellhead deregulation which opened up commodity to competition. Gazprom will now face true competition for gas selling elsewhere. Plus they will be constrained by pipeline capacity that may be reserved by others selling elsewhere.
I couldn't believe it when the EU did that. I'm sure greed was a large part of that decision.
You misspelled “Germany.”
😆
Greed and convenience...
Well me either my friend, and I live in the EU capital IT FEELS LIKE at least, living in Stockholm,Sweden. Im exhausted by the rot thats now even more free to dance trough every GOP on earth with Mr.Dumps Ludacris regulations and what not. He really set his sights on eradication of My Class of Peers - 'The Middle Class'. And Im not poiting any unnecessary fingers at any specific person, given the fact that I live in Sweden. Thanx for reading my comment! Robbie of Stockholm, Sweden. 🩵💙🩵💦✌️🙏
I am speechless! I have to absorb all this. I will go back and read it and reread it- news that just seems too good to be true. Finally, the world is beginning to pay attention the way it should have for what seems to be an excruciatingly long time!
yes. good one.
Concur, but I also think you got it backwards to some extent.
Democratic politicians don't undertake anything unless they're convinced they have the backing of their voters.
And their voters wanted cheap energy.
The politicians, in other words, were very much aware of the dangers of dependency on Russian gas.
Good politicians can change the perspective of their people.
Mediocre politicians just build pipelines and buy Russian gas. And then they wait until Russia invades another country, and kill the pipelines...
True..
Good politicians can change the perspective of their people. Very true!
Thanks for taking the time to respond. Very helpful.
I didn't know that Russia was pressing for Nordstream re-opening as part of their negotiations. That detail puts clarity into your praise for the EU actions, and importance for cutting off that Russian approach.
Similarly your reply below about the utility of lowering the oil price cap yielding results over time provides some "why" to your praise of the action. I'd like to see you report on how the oil sanctions actually work sometime.
Your reply below about India wanting Western support when they executed Operation Sindoor doesn't appear in the article, and you state there that no response from the west was appropriate. So I missed the connection you point out below that India keeps buying Russian oil which supports terrorism and the Ukraine War. And it's great the the EU took unilateral price sanctions that apply to the Indian oil market. Perhaps it will help bleed Russia.
Will do now because I was so pissed off with the EU and would have gone on a rant. So kept away to keep my anger down. Now will be a good time to open that box..
Thank you for your most excellent insights. I am just an old retired woman, but I have followed Putin with trepidation and growing horror, since he first stepped out of the shadows. The news regarding oil is long awaited.
I like your reporting, especially on Ukraine, and am happy to support your journalism. I'm not so impressed with this piece however. I think sleeping on it another day might have caused you to rewrite it for clarity. The thesis of Gasprom dying because the EU placed sanctions on maintenance contracts belies the fact that Nordstream 2 never piped any gas and Nordstream 1 shut down deliveries in September 2021. It would also be helpful to remind us of the underseas explosions in September of 2022 destroying the pipelines, which seems to me makes the touted EU Nordstream maintenance sanctions moot. Or at least less warranting of high praise. No individual or collective EU member(s) would take on the pipeline repair anyway due to the immense cost you noted, at this time anyway. And the successful development of alternate gas supplies make the pipelines far less relevant. Who knows about the future though....
The EU dropping the Rosneft price cap 15% below market cap could use some perspective of how the price cap is enforced. "Shadow" tankers moving Russian oil have been consistently in the news evading sanctions. Do you expect a crackdown on that evasion?
I don't see a connection between the EU's oil sanctions and India's anti-terrorism actions in Pakistan. Seems like a separate story.
I have to respectfully disagree with the concerns raised here.
Nord Stream hasn’t pumped anything for over two years, so why bother with sanctions now: The reason is that this move puts any effort to resurrect Nord Stream permanently out of reach. The Kremlin has been trying to make the pipeline’s revival a key part of its negotiations with the United States.
Enforcement has always been a challenge for Europe—they tend to play around the edges. But lowering the price cap encourages many buyers to voluntarily reduce the price they pay. Over time, this exerts pressure on Russia and pushes them to offer discounts themselves.
The third point is far more interconnected than it seems on the surface. This is geopolitics. India wants EU support when it goes on the offensive, but refuses to return the favor when Europe is under pressure? This isn’t a situation where you ask for permission—you push for reconciliation between the two wants.
My understanding from the post is that russia can no longer use the reopening of nord stream as a negotiating tactic which seriously weakens Russia’s hand
A beautiful cooperation of NATO and EU! India already caved in as it 🇮🇳 should.
Now - what would China do???
Sell drone components to Russia
Artillery shells, too?
Only components. Anything bigger will invite sanctions. So they won't go..covert support for now is the plan
I think Xi no longer selling drones to Ukraine or Europe bc they’re going to russia is now out in the open. Plus Xi said China can’t afford for Russia to lose the war!!! Now we need to move on China before it moves on Taiwan.
Too many things for us - we have Israel and Iran, Ukraine and Russia- handful. I would personally just wait and watch China, which we already do.
It was clearly impossible for Europe to completely wean themselves off of Russian oil so I guess the fact that it has happened could be considered a true miracle.
Fireworks and sparklers! Finally, guts + grit = greatness.
the thing is the likes of spain who are importing a massive amount of gas, plus the little bits they have written in to the latest cuts
Nice! This is all good news.
Your simple sentence put my heart at ease James. As I am a swedish democrat living in Stockholm. So uttermost affected by this Ukraine/Russia war and living so close next to a STILL LIVING Dictator feels not only backwards, but stagnant now as well. So your simple sentence put me at ease. Thanx!!!
Russian gas was a godsend for us Europeans: it was cheap, of good quality, and—above all—convenient to have.
The myth of Germany's economic strength was, for many years, built precisely on this cheap gas.
However, as you also pointed out, relying on a single supplier is incredibly risky. In fact, Germany was hit hard when Russian gas was banned from Europe, and little by little we almost completely stopped using it.
As an Italian, I can say that we were very smart in securing deals with other countries, and today Russian gas accounts for an insignificant percentage of our supply—possibly even zero.
American gas, on the other hand, is more expensive and more difficult to transport. It’s simply not convenient for us to use.
By abandoning Russian gas, we ultimately hurt ourselves—but it had to be done. Russia must be weakened, and the fewer resources it has, the better.
To me, the real alternative is not buying gas from the Americans. The real alternative is switching to nuclear energy, as France has done.
We already have the technology within the European Union—we don’t need anything more than to start building reactors everywhere and electrify everything.
That would also have a positive impact on air quality and pollution.
I've been advocating for nuclear energy in Italy for years, but unfortunately, we don’t have it. And in other countries, like Germany, they’ve even decided to phase it out.
Sometimes, we Europeans are just plain stupid. Stupid, us!