Agree. I've said from the beginning...and I still say: "Rus delenda est". There is no other way to guarantee Ukraine's and Europe's long term safety. Putin must be removed and if the surviving Russian state fractures, all the better. Russia, as presently constituted, is a malignant "cancer" that will consume everything around it if not fully excised.
“There has been some movement on the bipartisan sanctions bill. If tabled, it will clear the Senate in no time—filibuster-proof with 85 votes. Yes, eighty-five. It will clear the Senate in record time, and the House too, without delay. And then it will sit—glowing, loaded, and full of political consequence—on Trump’s desk.”
Excellent Shankar, although sanctions are always the tricky part. We talked about how Trump keeps moving the line in the sand on Putin’s behalf. Now people say Trump finally got the message and is moving away from Russia; Frankly, I’m not buying it.
Yesterday I learned that even though Trump has agreed to send some defensive missiles and Patriot Batteries (small quantities), he is still refusing to send the missiles earmarked by Biden and already in Poland that were supposed to be released.
Additionally, what good are new sanctions if Trump refuses to enforce the existing ones? Trump isn’t following up on the existing sanctions and making the necessary adjustments. Russia is brilliant at finding new contractors, suppliers and banks to their bidding, and Trump is just ignoring these glaring facts and allowing Russia to continue to break the sanctions with impunity.
Therefore, to me, it’s all smoke and mirrors. Congress already ceded its authority to Trump, and regardless of whatever they tell you, they will not vote against any of his policies or political views. We’ve seen this movie before, and it’s getting stale! IMHO…:)
I agree with all of the above and admire your moral clarity that Russia has no scruples and will continue to be an aggressor. Not sure what it will take for Europe to not act like establishment US Dems and snatch defeat from victory.
One way Ukraine can quickly ruin Russia’s economy. Sending drones around Moscow and St. Petersburg airports, every day, closing civilian airspace, and incurring hundreds of millions in cancelled and delayed flights. The long range ground missiles will help with that effort. This is a psychologial operation showing Putin is powerless to protect the homeland. That is a major reason Russia tolerates him. Lose that and it is he on the slippery slope.
Essentially since Trump became president, signals have come quite regularly that the US *might* finally shift away from the very much pro-Russian stance that has characterized this government so far. Alas those signals haves never been followed up on by the US with significant pro-Ukraine actions. I’ll treat any further such signals as mere noise until something significant changes in the actual actions of the US.
Brilliant analysis as always. And I continue my happy dance. Was very depressed about the White House. At least for a minute or two the scales are tilting in Ukraine’s direction. It is my understanding that some defensive hardware was currently in Poland but had been stopped by Colby. God knows Ukraine needs all the help it can get right this very second. I presume Putin is getting desperate so he is ramping up his attacks.
I agree that anyone who thought something less than destroying the Russian war machine would suffice is out of their minds. Putin will continue to enlist help from other countries. He still has sneaky ways of selling oil I believe, although at a vastly reduced rate. And he is driven by a desire to stay alive.
Trump's habit is to indulge whomever he believes is "stronger" (whatever stronger means to trump). Trump's heavy lean towards Putin indicates who and what Trump favors. Trump has spent the past 5 months granting Putin the "Time" he needs to destroy Ukraine, and risk a broader war with Europe.
S 1241, the Senate Bill, has been sitting in limbo for much of this time. According to Politico, Graham updated the bill to give Trump more flexibility over how or whether the sanctions contained in the bill might be levied. There is nothing that compels Trump to act.
Trump will likely continue to grant Putin "Time". Putin is seen (erroneously) by Trump as a gateway to immediate riches. Ukraine is seen by Trump as a nation that will require effort to rebuild. Trump is allergic to effort. And the GOP Senate is allergic to pressuring Trump.
Expect stalemate.
Fingers are crossed that this Bill will spark sanity in US support for Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting the war the Sudetenland never got a chance to wage - with mass death as a result. That Trump did not fire anyone over the halt in deliveries to Ukraine is telling. Trump likes to fire people, but for some reason, not these who so publicly compelled him to doom Ukraine. Interesting.
Isn’t sanctions-lite better than the United States reducing sanctions?
And that is even supposing that it means less sanctions rather than using language to assuage the U.S. and avoid giving a gift to Putin’s worldwide propaganda machine.
"Make no mistake: if it is sanctions lite, then Europe will stay in war mode for a very long time. Not months. Years."
I don't disagree with you on a human level. But unfortunately, power, especially raw military power between States, has little - nothing - to do with human empathy, or human life, nor the value of it.
As Gandalf says in one of the Lord of the Rings movies: "Things have been set in motion that cannot be undone."
I'm afraid the re-armament, and awakening, and strive for military independence of Europe, have been set in motion. But they can easily be undone. And they will be undone when Russia crumbles, and leaves Ukraine with its tale between its legs.
I'm not saying that'll make Russia less dangerous. Russia is Russia.
What I am saying - there is no way European citizens are willing to cough up 5% of their income on rebuilding European defence if Russia enters another period of chaos, like during the nineties, after which the emerging Russian ruling class will come begging for sanction relief, food and investments. So Europe better stay in war mode for the next couple of years, so that they can relax after they've built up their military, not before.
Yes, Ukrainian life is as valuable as our own.
But, I'm sorry to say, it isn't in the best interest of the future safety of Europe that Russia goes belly up financially in the next quarter. I'm not sure if that was the thinking behind Pavel's comments. But it should be.
That does not mean we should leave Ukraine out to dry. On the contrary. We should do everything in our power to provide Ukraine with the means to stop missiles from reaching Ukrainian cities, to stop Ukrainian soldiers from dying at the front. We should do everything in our power to provide Ukraine with the means to kill Russian and North Korean soldiers by the many thousands, each and every day.
We should do everything in our power to provide Ukraine with the means to slowly bleed Russia to the point of a coma. Emphasis - slowly.
As far as Europe's interests are concerned - they do not align with Ukraine's when it comes to ending the war, simply because Europeans are not suffering the way Ukrainians are.
I don't say this because I like it, because I don't. I say it because there are bigger things at stake than even the future of Ukraine...
I did read the comment I replied to. Didn't make sense to me that Europe need to build defense supplies before doing anything. Why can't Russia just go belly up financially now?
I hear your frustration, Shankar. But could it not be, this is exactly what Pavel is doing? Not with Putin, but with Trump. Withholding vital air defence missiles in Putin's favour unless Ukraine capitulates on certain things. It stinks, but Pavel is holding a tiger by the tail, here.
What do Europeans fear if Russia collapses? An influx of refugees to Europe? Can't they plan now about how they would handle it if it came to that and explain it to everyone?
Agree. I've said from the beginning...and I still say: "Rus delenda est". There is no other way to guarantee Ukraine's and Europe's long term safety. Putin must be removed and if the surviving Russian state fractures, all the better. Russia, as presently constituted, is a malignant "cancer" that will consume everything around it if not fully excised.
“There has been some movement on the bipartisan sanctions bill. If tabled, it will clear the Senate in no time—filibuster-proof with 85 votes. Yes, eighty-five. It will clear the Senate in record time, and the House too, without delay. And then it will sit—glowing, loaded, and full of political consequence—on Trump’s desk.”
Excellent Shankar, although sanctions are always the tricky part. We talked about how Trump keeps moving the line in the sand on Putin’s behalf. Now people say Trump finally got the message and is moving away from Russia; Frankly, I’m not buying it.
Yesterday I learned that even though Trump has agreed to send some defensive missiles and Patriot Batteries (small quantities), he is still refusing to send the missiles earmarked by Biden and already in Poland that were supposed to be released.
Additionally, what good are new sanctions if Trump refuses to enforce the existing ones? Trump isn’t following up on the existing sanctions and making the necessary adjustments. Russia is brilliant at finding new contractors, suppliers and banks to their bidding, and Trump is just ignoring these glaring facts and allowing Russia to continue to break the sanctions with impunity.
Therefore, to me, it’s all smoke and mirrors. Congress already ceded its authority to Trump, and regardless of whatever they tell you, they will not vote against any of his policies or political views. We’ve seen this movie before, and it’s getting stale! IMHO…:)
I agree with all of the above and admire your moral clarity that Russia has no scruples and will continue to be an aggressor. Not sure what it will take for Europe to not act like establishment US Dems and snatch defeat from victory.
One way Ukraine can quickly ruin Russia’s economy. Sending drones around Moscow and St. Petersburg airports, every day, closing civilian airspace, and incurring hundreds of millions in cancelled and delayed flights. The long range ground missiles will help with that effort. This is a psychologial operation showing Putin is powerless to protect the homeland. That is a major reason Russia tolerates him. Lose that and it is he on the slippery slope.
“The United States might finally be catching up.”
Essentially since Trump became president, signals have come quite regularly that the US *might* finally shift away from the very much pro-Russian stance that has characterized this government so far. Alas those signals haves never been followed up on by the US with significant pro-Ukraine actions. I’ll treat any further such signals as mere noise until something significant changes in the actual actions of the US.
Brilliant analysis as always. And I continue my happy dance. Was very depressed about the White House. At least for a minute or two the scales are tilting in Ukraine’s direction. It is my understanding that some defensive hardware was currently in Poland but had been stopped by Colby. God knows Ukraine needs all the help it can get right this very second. I presume Putin is getting desperate so he is ramping up his attacks.
I agree that anyone who thought something less than destroying the Russian war machine would suffice is out of their minds. Putin will continue to enlist help from other countries. He still has sneaky ways of selling oil I believe, although at a vastly reduced rate. And he is driven by a desire to stay alive.
Did Trump not lift some sanctions after all?
Trump's habit is to indulge whomever he believes is "stronger" (whatever stronger means to trump). Trump's heavy lean towards Putin indicates who and what Trump favors. Trump has spent the past 5 months granting Putin the "Time" he needs to destroy Ukraine, and risk a broader war with Europe.
S 1241, the Senate Bill, has been sitting in limbo for much of this time. According to Politico, Graham updated the bill to give Trump more flexibility over how or whether the sanctions contained in the bill might be levied. There is nothing that compels Trump to act.
Trump will likely continue to grant Putin "Time". Putin is seen (erroneously) by Trump as a gateway to immediate riches. Ukraine is seen by Trump as a nation that will require effort to rebuild. Trump is allergic to effort. And the GOP Senate is allergic to pressuring Trump.
Expect stalemate.
Fingers are crossed that this Bill will spark sanity in US support for Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting the war the Sudetenland never got a chance to wage - with mass death as a result. That Trump did not fire anyone over the halt in deliveries to Ukraine is telling. Trump likes to fire people, but for some reason, not these who so publicly compelled him to doom Ukraine. Interesting.
https://simplestufffirst.substack.com/p/trump-serves-ukraine-up-to-putin
Isn’t sanctions-lite better than the United States reducing sanctions?
And that is even supposing that it means less sanctions rather than using language to assuage the U.S. and avoid giving a gift to Putin’s worldwide propaganda machine.
"Make no mistake: if it is sanctions lite, then Europe will stay in war mode for a very long time. Not months. Years."
I don't disagree with you on a human level. But unfortunately, power, especially raw military power between States, has little - nothing - to do with human empathy, or human life, nor the value of it.
As Gandalf says in one of the Lord of the Rings movies: "Things have been set in motion that cannot be undone."
I'm afraid the re-armament, and awakening, and strive for military independence of Europe, have been set in motion. But they can easily be undone. And they will be undone when Russia crumbles, and leaves Ukraine with its tale between its legs.
I'm not saying that'll make Russia less dangerous. Russia is Russia.
What I am saying - there is no way European citizens are willing to cough up 5% of their income on rebuilding European defence if Russia enters another period of chaos, like during the nineties, after which the emerging Russian ruling class will come begging for sanction relief, food and investments. So Europe better stay in war mode for the next couple of years, so that they can relax after they've built up their military, not before.
Yes, Ukrainian life is as valuable as our own.
But, I'm sorry to say, it isn't in the best interest of the future safety of Europe that Russia goes belly up financially in the next quarter. I'm not sure if that was the thinking behind Pavel's comments. But it should be.
That does not mean we should leave Ukraine out to dry. On the contrary. We should do everything in our power to provide Ukraine with the means to stop missiles from reaching Ukrainian cities, to stop Ukrainian soldiers from dying at the front. We should do everything in our power to provide Ukraine with the means to kill Russian and North Korean soldiers by the many thousands, each and every day.
We should do everything in our power to provide Ukraine with the means to slowly bleed Russia to the point of a coma. Emphasis - slowly.
As far as Europe's interests are concerned - they do not align with Ukraine's when it comes to ending the war, simply because Europeans are not suffering the way Ukrainians are.
I don't say this because I like it, because I don't. I say it because there are bigger things at stake than even the future of Ukraine...
Why is it not in Europe's interest for Russia to go financially belly up?
Because that will end the threat, and subsequently Europe's re-emergence as a global military might.
Didn't answer the question and makes no sense
Did you even finish my forst comment?
The reasoning, and answer to your question is all there...
I did read the comment I replied to. Didn't make sense to me that Europe need to build defense supplies before doing anything. Why can't Russia just go belly up financially now?
Europeans are asked to spend 5% on their income on defence. They are willing, because they are afraid of Russia.
Take away the fear - Russia goes belly up - and Europeans will refuse the spending...
That's not what I said.
Read it again…
I am only seeing this comment, not an earlier comment.
"Why not open a credit line while we’re at it?"
I hear your frustration, Shankar. But could it not be, this is exactly what Pavel is doing? Not with Putin, but with Trump. Withholding vital air defence missiles in Putin's favour unless Ukraine capitulates on certain things. It stinks, but Pavel is holding a tiger by the tail, here.
What do Europeans fear if Russia collapses? An influx of refugees to Europe? Can't they plan now about how they would handle it if it came to that and explain it to everyone?