In a weird kind of way, Russia is now in a stage of siege. The oil embargo has some teeth and Russian oil refineries and depots continue to burn. Russian railway networks and Aeroflot are disrupted and the military/industrial complex are taking hits. Crimea is progressively becoming more isolated - military families have been evacuated.
All of the damage takes millions of roubles to repair at a time where Russia is ripping through its sovereign wealth fund like a drunken sailor in Portsmouth on pay night and many of the equipments needed for repairs are embargoed.
Russian aircraft have been moved east where they are safer from Ukrainian attack.
Ukrainian hackers have junked at least two vital Russian computer networks. They may well be inside others - their excellent battlefield intel suggests this (although the Ukrainians point to other intel sources).
Under these circumstances, any temporary ceasefire is only an opportunity for Russia to regroup and repair.
“The odds of anything good coming out of a Trump–Putin meeting are scraping zero. This is a global waste of time — a soup cooked in Witkoff’s kitchen and ladled out by the GOP’s brand of politics.”
And as advertised, the time between Trump’s announcement of a meeting, to the actual meeting in Alaska; gives Putin much needed time to regroup, while continuing his bombing of civilian targets, with no end in sight.
Personally, I believe Putin isn’t interested in a peace deal. His goal is the total occupation of Ukraine so it can continue to lay waste to Europe; until Europe becomes completely under his sphere of influence. Additionally, he’ll continue to undermine Europe’s democracy’s, until they are all controlled by autocrats loyal to him.
Furthermore, war with all of Europe isn’t his goal, but rather to use Ukraine’s vast oil and gas reserves, as well as its large wheat and grain stores, and other resources to control pricing, destabilize their economies, and ultimately replace the Democratic regimes throughout the continent.
Moreover, the US would take all of North and South America, while China gets Asia, with Africa up for grabs, as the US looks inward.
Therefore, I’d expect nothing substantial to come from this meeting. Just more delays, as well as more excuses by Trump for Putin as to why Trump will delay any further sanctions, even though his administration refuses to enforce most of the current ones.
Bottom line: Putin and Trump may not be successful in the end; however, it will be mostly because Russia’s military has proven itself to be a paper tiger, and hardly the might of a country bestowed the title of a superpower. While Trump’s ignorance and domestic issues at home, make him less of a brilliant strategist, and more like a flailing idiot incapable of completing a fools errand.
Therefore, Europe must resist, threaten to retaliate economically, and never give into Trump and Putin’s threats and demands. This isn’t Ukraine’s war, it’s a war against democracy, and Europe is the front line…IMHO!…:)
Witkoff has less than zero credibility as an envoy for the United States. It was a disgusting distraction at best that he went to Moscow and pretended that he and Putin could resurrect the 28 April Ukraine surrender terms and sell them this time.
Putin is hearing the cracks in the ice he’s walking on. Ukraine is landing the long range punches on legitimate targets, Russia’s war machine is misfiring on almost all cylinders, the Russian economy is circling the drain faster.
This farcical meeting in Alaska was never going to be about peace in Ukraine. Putin knows Ukraine would not accept any deal he was going to put on the table. Putin is manipulating trump as he can do so well, with trump being his cultivated admirer. He can make it look like it’s Ukraine’s intransigence that is blocking trump’s Nobel Peace prize. The goal for Putin is still maximum conquest of Ukraine, reduction of U.S. participation in sanctions and forestalling any hint of trump getting tough on Russia. Ukraine and European unity is correct, good to hear and the only path forward, but it does not preclude Putin from achieving HIS goals at this meeting.
Putin wants to get Trump and Europe to fights that is his first objective.
Trump desperate for a deal thinks if he does a 5 minute dance Putin will agree.
He wont.
He will give him deal that will be impossible for Ukraine to agree.
Trump will try to bully Ukraine. Repeat of Feb 28. Only catch here is both Europe and Ukraine are in a much better position to resist this time. So it is right now a game of who blinks first between Trump and Europe. I dont have a pick at this point. Because Trump can be pushed back because the US defense industrial complex is active for some time. They have a 20 to 50 billion order on the line. So, extremely tricky landscape. Have to read after things move. But situation is certainly not as alarming as it was in March 2025. But it is bad because Putin is playing Trump and he still has no clue who he is dealing with
It is not as straightforward. First money is not in one place, most of that is in Belgium. Then there are Belgium laws, then EU laws. A ton of hoops to jump. That moment came and went when the Biden admin pushed for it. Right now they are taking loans out interest payments. And that money will never get to Russia. We have already maxed out of what can be done with it.
My reaction comes from Keith Olbermann, Countdown, Aug 11, 2025. ARREST PUTIN when he is here.
WHILE HE'S HERE, LET'S ARREST PUTIN - 8.11.25 | Countdown with Keith Olbermann
SEASON 4 EPISODE 3: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN
A-Block (1:45) SPECIAL COMMENT: Hey! While Putin is here in Alaska so Trump can kiss his fanny, let's arrest him on behalf of the International Criminal Court and its member states Canada and Mexico who want to try him for kidnapping Ukrainian children and lying that they're orphans and forcibly converting them into Russians!
The willingness to let this scum set foot on American territory is all part of Trump's desperate need to win an award. A major award. A major award like the one the father wanted in the movie "A Christmas Story." He wants what his idiot press secretary Karoline Leavitt calls "The Noble Peace Prize." He'll do anything to get it. Because he needs it to distract you from Trumpstein.
Europe is finally finding its spine. By that I mean other than the Nordics and Baltics and Poland. Put the money down, ask for Patriot systems, ATACMS to be used without restrictions. Let’s see if this abomination of an administration puts up or shuts up.
Or perhaps Trump is giving Vance enough rope to hang himself. I can’t see any positives coming from this negotiation, so someone is going to take the fall, and it won’t be Trump!…:)
Beautifully written. Your prose is always so engaging. I really appreciate your updates.,
I don’t know if there is really any point to this summit. I sincerely doubt Putin will come if the EU is there.
I don’t think a lot of people realize how incredibly rich Ukraine is in natural resources, food production, etc. Putin would be getting a great deal for any of it. Crimea is both important for fruit and veg growing, but it is a feather Putin wants in his cap because it is a favorite holiday site—not to mention the Yalta Summit site. And Yalta is rather nice if I do say so myself.
Agree. One item I'd add to the "list" is a delivery schedule both plausible and immediate.
On the general list of possible EU actions, I'd kick up the process of sending frozen Russian assets to Ukraine on a defined schedule. To ensure the process is real and understood by all sides, along with the announcement, include the first $25 billion at the time of the announcement.
Neutralizing the corrosive Trump-Putin negotiations and eroding the value of the Trump-Putin machinations generally, is necessary to opening the "negotiating table" up to EU and Ukrainian participation, and to any viable negotiations.
Wait, wait--is there the merest flicker of a flicker of hope that Vance might prove to be a less impaired, less immoral head of state than our current POTUS? Hmm. We know he's beholden to a shadowy cabal of tech bros, Peter Thiel prominent among them--but still. It's harder to go any lower on the scale of depravity than Trump, who many predict is so trapped in a mire of his own making that he will, one way or another, be booted from office before the end of his term. Vance has been an enigma within an enigma folded inside the guacamole topping of the Trump Taco. How is the EU feeling about him?
But the reason you are asking that Q is more about the possiblity of weapons delivery continuing from here.
On that front...
Yes. He said it twice. Once in the UK and then in the US. And the one in the UK came when he was right next to David Lammy. From here if this does not close, it will be Europe's fault. I just hope they close this gap ASAP.
In a weird kind of way, Russia is now in a stage of siege. The oil embargo has some teeth and Russian oil refineries and depots continue to burn. Russian railway networks and Aeroflot are disrupted and the military/industrial complex are taking hits. Crimea is progressively becoming more isolated - military families have been evacuated.
All of the damage takes millions of roubles to repair at a time where Russia is ripping through its sovereign wealth fund like a drunken sailor in Portsmouth on pay night and many of the equipments needed for repairs are embargoed.
Russian aircraft have been moved east where they are safer from Ukrainian attack.
Ukrainian hackers have junked at least two vital Russian computer networks. They may well be inside others - their excellent battlefield intel suggests this (although the Ukrainians point to other intel sources).
Under these circumstances, any temporary ceasefire is only an opportunity for Russia to regroup and repair.
Thanks again Shankar for providing the news we get from nowhere else. This would be a good one for all European policy makers to see ASAP.
“The odds of anything good coming out of a Trump–Putin meeting are scraping zero. This is a global waste of time — a soup cooked in Witkoff’s kitchen and ladled out by the GOP’s brand of politics.”
And as advertised, the time between Trump’s announcement of a meeting, to the actual meeting in Alaska; gives Putin much needed time to regroup, while continuing his bombing of civilian targets, with no end in sight.
Personally, I believe Putin isn’t interested in a peace deal. His goal is the total occupation of Ukraine so it can continue to lay waste to Europe; until Europe becomes completely under his sphere of influence. Additionally, he’ll continue to undermine Europe’s democracy’s, until they are all controlled by autocrats loyal to him.
Furthermore, war with all of Europe isn’t his goal, but rather to use Ukraine’s vast oil and gas reserves, as well as its large wheat and grain stores, and other resources to control pricing, destabilize their economies, and ultimately replace the Democratic regimes throughout the continent.
Moreover, the US would take all of North and South America, while China gets Asia, with Africa up for grabs, as the US looks inward.
Therefore, I’d expect nothing substantial to come from this meeting. Just more delays, as well as more excuses by Trump for Putin as to why Trump will delay any further sanctions, even though his administration refuses to enforce most of the current ones.
Bottom line: Putin and Trump may not be successful in the end; however, it will be mostly because Russia’s military has proven itself to be a paper tiger, and hardly the might of a country bestowed the title of a superpower. While Trump’s ignorance and domestic issues at home, make him less of a brilliant strategist, and more like a flailing idiot incapable of completing a fools errand.
Therefore, Europe must resist, threaten to retaliate economically, and never give into Trump and Putin’s threats and demands. This isn’t Ukraine’s war, it’s a war against democracy, and Europe is the front line…IMHO!…:)
Couldn’t of said it better
Thank you…:)
Like this assessment a lot !
Witkoff has less than zero credibility as an envoy for the United States. It was a disgusting distraction at best that he went to Moscow and pretended that he and Putin could resurrect the 28 April Ukraine surrender terms and sell them this time.
Putin is hearing the cracks in the ice he’s walking on. Ukraine is landing the long range punches on legitimate targets, Russia’s war machine is misfiring on almost all cylinders, the Russian economy is circling the drain faster.
This farcical meeting in Alaska was never going to be about peace in Ukraine. Putin knows Ukraine would not accept any deal he was going to put on the table. Putin is manipulating trump as he can do so well, with trump being his cultivated admirer. He can make it look like it’s Ukraine’s intransigence that is blocking trump’s Nobel Peace prize. The goal for Putin is still maximum conquest of Ukraine, reduction of U.S. participation in sanctions and forestalling any hint of trump getting tough on Russia. Ukraine and European unity is correct, good to hear and the only path forward, but it does not preclude Putin from achieving HIS goals at this meeting.
trump is putty in Putin’s hands.
I don't get it, and correct me if I'm wrong or missing something.
A cease fire = giving up Ukrainian territory.
So, what's the idea behind a cease fire? To continue fighting a year from now? Two years from now?
Sometime in the unforeseeable future?
A cease fire would formalize the status quo. And therefore the handing over of Ukrainian land to Putin. Period.
If the stance is that Putin cannot walk away with land gains, there can be no talk of cease fire, or 'freeze' of the conflict...
Putin wants to get Trump and Europe to fights that is his first objective.
Trump desperate for a deal thinks if he does a 5 minute dance Putin will agree.
He wont.
He will give him deal that will be impossible for Ukraine to agree.
Trump will try to bully Ukraine. Repeat of Feb 28. Only catch here is both Europe and Ukraine are in a much better position to resist this time. So it is right now a game of who blinks first between Trump and Europe. I dont have a pick at this point. Because Trump can be pushed back because the US defense industrial complex is active for some time. They have a 20 to 50 billion order on the line. So, extremely tricky landscape. Have to read after things move. But situation is certainly not as alarming as it was in March 2025. But it is bad because Putin is playing Trump and he still has no clue who he is dealing with
Why europe doesn’t use the russian frozen assets to buy weapons? It would be so easy and no burden on european taxpayers. I just don’t get it..
It is not as straightforward. First money is not in one place, most of that is in Belgium. Then there are Belgium laws, then EU laws. A ton of hoops to jump. That moment came and went when the Biden admin pushed for it. Right now they are taking loans out interest payments. And that money will never get to Russia. We have already maxed out of what can be done with it.
"Peace Through Weakness" is the new Trump doctrine. The US is flailing in indecision and fear. Putin has Trump right where he wants him.
My reaction comes from Keith Olbermann, Countdown, Aug 11, 2025. ARREST PUTIN when he is here.
WHILE HE'S HERE, LET'S ARREST PUTIN - 8.11.25 | Countdown with Keith Olbermann
SEASON 4 EPISODE 3: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN
A-Block (1:45) SPECIAL COMMENT: Hey! While Putin is here in Alaska so Trump can kiss his fanny, let's arrest him on behalf of the International Criminal Court and its member states Canada and Mexico who want to try him for kidnapping Ukrainian children and lying that they're orphans and forcibly converting them into Russians!
The willingness to let this scum set foot on American territory is all part of Trump's desperate need to win an award. A major award. A major award like the one the father wanted in the movie "A Christmas Story." He wants what his idiot press secretary Karoline Leavitt calls "The Noble Peace Prize." He'll do anything to get it. Because he needs it to distract you from Trumpstein.
https://youtu.be/rHQuS3eyvRI?si=mIR1wCzzKprmYd_8
Trumped never intended to send the goods. Afraid Putin will make public everything they have on him and his buddy Epstein.
Europe is finally finding its spine. By that I mean other than the Nordics and Baltics and Poland. Put the money down, ask for Patriot systems, ATACMS to be used without restrictions. Let’s see if this abomination of an administration puts up or shuts up.
Trump is a moron. No good will come of this Alaska meeting. Only ignominy and a lasting stain on American prestige.
It’s shameful that Trump would allow Putin to set foot on American soil.
“The slow backpedal from the Witkoff mess has landed in J.D. Vance’s lap. Why him? Hard to say.”
Could it be that (unlike some others in the current US government) Vance is capable of strategic thinking?
Not very sure. I think Vance is insecure about Marco's growing influence.
Or perhaps Trump is giving Vance enough rope to hang himself. I can’t see any positives coming from this negotiation, so someone is going to take the fall, and it won’t be Trump!…:)
I don’t think so, but he is sly and a survivor.
Beautifully written. Your prose is always so engaging. I really appreciate your updates.,
I don’t know if there is really any point to this summit. I sincerely doubt Putin will come if the EU is there.
I don’t think a lot of people realize how incredibly rich Ukraine is in natural resources, food production, etc. Putin would be getting a great deal for any of it. Crimea is both important for fruit and veg growing, but it is a feather Putin wants in his cap because it is a favorite holiday site—not to mention the Yalta Summit site. And Yalta is rather nice if I do say so myself.
Got up early today.
They can work something out, but it is a heavy lift. If something comes out of this, it will be Rubio. Let's see.
But there is someone inside the admin who will be sitting there waiting and watching that this fails. I mean gloriously fails.
Agree. One item I'd add to the "list" is a delivery schedule both plausible and immediate.
On the general list of possible EU actions, I'd kick up the process of sending frozen Russian assets to Ukraine on a defined schedule. To ensure the process is real and understood by all sides, along with the announcement, include the first $25 billion at the time of the announcement.
Neutralizing the corrosive Trump-Putin negotiations and eroding the value of the Trump-Putin machinations generally, is necessary to opening the "negotiating table" up to EU and Ukrainian participation, and to any viable negotiations.
Yes. It is moving. Last friday I think, 3 billion was delivered from the EU
Great news!
Any idea if Patriots were among these?
Wait, wait--is there the merest flicker of a flicker of hope that Vance might prove to be a less impaired, less immoral head of state than our current POTUS? Hmm. We know he's beholden to a shadowy cabal of tech bros, Peter Thiel prominent among them--but still. It's harder to go any lower on the scale of depravity than Trump, who many predict is so trapped in a mire of his own making that he will, one way or another, be booted from office before the end of his term. Vance has been an enigma within an enigma folded inside the guacamole topping of the Trump Taco. How is the EU feeling about him?
Well the first part I can't assure you.
But the reason you are asking that Q is more about the possiblity of weapons delivery continuing from here.
On that front...
Yes. He said it twice. Once in the UK and then in the US. And the one in the UK came when he was right next to David Lammy. From here if this does not close, it will be Europe's fault. I just hope they close this gap ASAP.
One step at a time, in time, is my prayer for now.