Charitably, I'd like to think that the NYT reports the bad news because of freedom of the press on the Ukrainian side. There are not many reporters operating in Russia. Also, in war, much like in boxing, whomever is throwing punches gets better commentary from observers than the one fending them off. Russia has been throwing punches and continues to throw punches, so the play by play will feel pro-Russian, but when one looks deeper, or listens in the quieter moments, there's plenty of evidence to see that the Russian offensives are ineffective and it's even clearer to anyone who has paid attention to the war from the first days of 2022 that Russia's "special operation" has been a staggering failure, but there's not much point in belaboring that in the daily news, since those of us who know already know, and those that don't, don't care, and if the Times put that forward, it wouldn't make any difference. As long as the Russians continue to "move the chains," "Russian offensive makes gains" will be the headlines because it's the most neutral and detached way to describe what's going on.
It's important to remember that the wheels may come off of the Russian army any moment, minute, hour, day, week, or month. It's happened before. 1917 comes to mind. If half of the conditions on the front for Russian soldiers are true, something inside Russia might trigger a collapse. It's fascinating that we seem to have forgotten Prigozhin actually lead a mutiny in 2023 that appeared to fail from a lack of will. Little by little I can see Russia cracking, and eventually, it ought to go all at once. This isn't to say that Russia still can't claw out a victory, but seriously, the last dictatorship that seems to have had a relatively decent outcome for the nation involved might have been Cromwell in England, so I hope the attraction wears off for another century after this current fit...
This war, unfortunately, has to continue until Russia is brought to its knees and can no longer make the demands it is currently making. Ukraine must have the upper hand, and the Western powers must help them get it. Russia cannot be rewarded for its aggression; Ukraine must recover its lost territories. Otherwise, Russia will continue its agression.
"European leaders don’t believe Vladimir Putin is sincere about a peace deal — so their strategy is to humor and praise Donald Trump until he finally reaches the same conclusion and realizes he will need to get tougher on the Kremlin."
It is important that Europe accept that Trump will NEVER come around. His belief that Ukraine & NATO caused the war has never wavered. Deep in his soul - well, lets say brain as the former is speculative - he believes Russia is big & strong and therefore entitled to prey on the weak. That is another constant.
Beneath the surface of bluster and posturing, Trump is remarkably consistent.
I would venture that brain is also speculative , Richard, although he is reptilian, so he does have instinctual behavior:
"The reptilian brain is often described as responsible for instinctual behaviors and survival functions, such as feeding, territorial defense, basic motor control, and reproduction—sometimes referred to as the "four Fs": feeding, fighting, fleeing, and reproduction"
Thank you so much for what you do Shankar. I have an American friend who has been totally taken in by Russian propaganda. He thinks the Russian army is powerful and Putin is just resisting the evil colonial powers who want to carve up Russia. He says that Navalny and Zelensky are CIA pawns. I guess he follows people like John Ritter and Jeffrey Sachs and Noam Chomsky, who seem to have lost their minds. It’s amazing to me that anyone could see Putin as anything other than a vicious murderous thug.
Taco Don moving towards harsher sanctions is an illusion. Taco Don's presidency would be over, instantly, if Putin published the Epstein files - all of them.
Europe should add another goal to their objectives - continue the war until a desperate Putin sees no other option than to threaten, and then release the Epstein files, out of spite if nothing else.
Don’t most American know that the Epstein files implicate Trump? I think it is likely that Putin has other receipts. Like money laundering? Or Melania?
“Any production drop triggers immediate supply disruptions, drives up gasoline prices, and feeds inflation—exactly the kind of economic pressure that erodes public support and strains government resources.”
I would think that in Russia, the military is likely to be a quite significantly large consumer of refined petroleum products. So I would think of reducing Russia refinery capacity as increasing how much it costs the Russian economy as a whole to continue using increasingly scarce fuel resources on continuing a war that they cannot win.
Thank you for this.
I make a point of reading your articles before going to the NYT.
The NYT reporting on Russia and the war is almost comically biassed.
Charitably, I'd like to think that the NYT reports the bad news because of freedom of the press on the Ukrainian side. There are not many reporters operating in Russia. Also, in war, much like in boxing, whomever is throwing punches gets better commentary from observers than the one fending them off. Russia has been throwing punches and continues to throw punches, so the play by play will feel pro-Russian, but when one looks deeper, or listens in the quieter moments, there's plenty of evidence to see that the Russian offensives are ineffective and it's even clearer to anyone who has paid attention to the war from the first days of 2022 that Russia's "special operation" has been a staggering failure, but there's not much point in belaboring that in the daily news, since those of us who know already know, and those that don't, don't care, and if the Times put that forward, it wouldn't make any difference. As long as the Russians continue to "move the chains," "Russian offensive makes gains" will be the headlines because it's the most neutral and detached way to describe what's going on.
It's important to remember that the wheels may come off of the Russian army any moment, minute, hour, day, week, or month. It's happened before. 1917 comes to mind. If half of the conditions on the front for Russian soldiers are true, something inside Russia might trigger a collapse. It's fascinating that we seem to have forgotten Prigozhin actually lead a mutiny in 2023 that appeared to fail from a lack of will. Little by little I can see Russia cracking, and eventually, it ought to go all at once. This isn't to say that Russia still can't claw out a victory, but seriously, the last dictatorship that seems to have had a relatively decent outcome for the nation involved might have been Cromwell in England, so I hope the attraction wears off for another century after this current fit...
This war, unfortunately, has to continue until Russia is brought to its knees and can no longer make the demands it is currently making. Ukraine must have the upper hand, and the Western powers must help them get it. Russia cannot be rewarded for its aggression; Ukraine must recover its lost territories. Otherwise, Russia will continue its agression.
"European leaders don’t believe Vladimir Putin is sincere about a peace deal — so their strategy is to humor and praise Donald Trump until he finally reaches the same conclusion and realizes he will need to get tougher on the Kremlin."
It is important that Europe accept that Trump will NEVER come around. His belief that Ukraine & NATO caused the war has never wavered. Deep in his soul - well, lets say brain as the former is speculative - he believes Russia is big & strong and therefore entitled to prey on the weak. That is another constant.
Beneath the surface of bluster and posturing, Trump is remarkably consistent.
Yes and he’s a beta to Putins alpha.
I would venture that brain is also speculative , Richard, although he is reptilian, so he does have instinctual behavior:
"The reptilian brain is often described as responsible for instinctual behaviors and survival functions, such as feeding, territorial defense, basic motor control, and reproduction—sometimes referred to as the "four Fs": feeding, fighting, fleeing, and reproduction"
Thank you so much for what you do Shankar. I have an American friend who has been totally taken in by Russian propaganda. He thinks the Russian army is powerful and Putin is just resisting the evil colonial powers who want to carve up Russia. He says that Navalny and Zelensky are CIA pawns. I guess he follows people like John Ritter and Jeffrey Sachs and Noam Chomsky, who seem to have lost their minds. It’s amazing to me that anyone could see Putin as anything other than a vicious murderous thug.
Your analysis is clear and thoughtful,so much more informative than traditional media.
Taco Don moving towards harsher sanctions is an illusion. Taco Don's presidency would be over, instantly, if Putin published the Epstein files - all of them.
Europe should add another goal to their objectives - continue the war until a desperate Putin sees no other option than to threaten, and then release the Epstein files, out of spite if nothing else.
Best of both worlds...
Don’t most American know that the Epstein files implicate Trump? I think it is likely that Putin has other receipts. Like money laundering? Or Melania?
Putin has it all, and then some on his end.
And Taco Don cannot redact it. And he cannot go after Putin like he can after, say, Musk, if he were to release what he has.
That's why Taco Don fears Putin more than anyone. And that's why he will do Putin's bidding...
My only hope is that Putin’s delay tactics will not be sufficient to save him from losing this war.
“Any production drop triggers immediate supply disruptions, drives up gasoline prices, and feeds inflation—exactly the kind of economic pressure that erodes public support and strains government resources.”
I would think that in Russia, the military is likely to be a quite significantly large consumer of refined petroleum products. So I would think of reducing Russia refinery capacity as increasing how much it costs the Russian economy as a whole to continue using increasingly scarce fuel resources on continuing a war that they cannot win.
its nice to be able to sit back and watch russian transport coming to a stand still
Drone sanctions sounds good to me. Flamingo is being produced at 1x a day, ramping to 7x a day in October.
https://substack.com/@russiaanalyzed/note/c-147603208
Slava Ukraini!
Putin will flee Russia if he is forced to stop the war - I am hoping that day will come when the war is unsustainable for Putin
Where could he flee? And if he did find a refuge I'm certain that , like Trotsky, he'd be murdered, so he knows that fleeing is not an option.
Most Russians are fully behind the war. The Kyiv Independent has a Tshirt for sale that says it best: What the f*** is wrong with Russia?
This is not just Putin's war
Unfortunately, waiting for Trump to come to his senses and actually get tough on Russia and stand up to Putin, is a strategy doomed to failure.
Trump is the ultimate appeaser. I said back in 2015 that Putin has something on Trump, and controls him. And always will.
It’s only Trump’s quixotic quest for a Nobel Peace Prize that makes him even try to appear like he’s championing Ukraine in this war.
Good stuff.
Thank you Shankar!