Trump is inherently impossible to predict. Strongmen cannot stand to be tied to any notion of weakness. Ukraine is going to be framed in this light for months to years under Trump’s watch. As a comparison, Hitler stopped the bombing on Britain’s RAF just as they were about to lose operational capacity, all because a British bomber got separated from its squadron and bombed Berlin civilians. Hitler had assured the people of Berlin that they would never be touched in this way. So when it happened he reacted wildly, irrationally, diverting resources away from an RAF on the cusp of complete collapse to instead bomb Britain’s citizens in turn. Strongmen are weak men.
This article gives me the first real hope I have had for Ukraine in months. If Walz is this savvy about handling Putin, we are lucky. Putin has been hoping for Trump and hoping that Ukraine would be abandoned by the U.S. But that gives Putin power over the U.S. and power globally. He is facing serious trouble at home as he devotes more and more of the GDP to the war. He has done his best to suppress talk of the conflict internally, but without the North Koreans he will need another call up Russians are getting angry. The war propaganda is wearing thin. And he is showing them no benefit for the sacrifices of people and money. He cannot hope to keep word of these extraordinary numbers of deaths from leaking out. And I doubt Kim Jong Un will see his way to losing much of his army. He boasts of his huge army, but he won’t have one if Russia is killing 2,000/ day. The original deployment was only some 10,000 I believe—that is 5 days worth of cannon fodder.
Ukraine cannot be forced to give up large portions of its territories. On principle this would merely embolden Putin. But as a practical matter, Ukraine was the bread basket of Russia. Putin wants a major and conveniently located food source back in his power along with the strategic location of Crimes which doubles as a favorite vacation location for Russians.
In my career as a city planner, I had a saying for people when they faced the intricacies of the zoning code: The angels are in the details. As intimidating as the code was, there would be answers deep inside that often solved people's problems. Now that am I somewhat over the shock of Trump's victory, I am looking for angels in the details. Your comments regarding Waltz' appointment may be the first one.
Trump is inherently impossible to predict. Strongmen cannot stand to be tied to any notion of weakness. Ukraine is going to be framed in this light for months to years under Trump’s watch. As a comparison, Hitler stopped the bombing on Britain’s RAF just as they were about to lose operational capacity, all because a British bomber got separated from its squadron and bombed Berlin civilians. Hitler had assured the people of Berlin that they would never be touched in this way. So when it happened he reacted wildly, irrationally, diverting resources away from an RAF on the cusp of complete collapse to instead bomb Britain’s citizens in turn. Strongmen are weak men.
This article gives me the first real hope I have had for Ukraine in months. If Walz is this savvy about handling Putin, we are lucky. Putin has been hoping for Trump and hoping that Ukraine would be abandoned by the U.S. But that gives Putin power over the U.S. and power globally. He is facing serious trouble at home as he devotes more and more of the GDP to the war. He has done his best to suppress talk of the conflict internally, but without the North Koreans he will need another call up Russians are getting angry. The war propaganda is wearing thin. And he is showing them no benefit for the sacrifices of people and money. He cannot hope to keep word of these extraordinary numbers of deaths from leaking out. And I doubt Kim Jong Un will see his way to losing much of his army. He boasts of his huge army, but he won’t have one if Russia is killing 2,000/ day. The original deployment was only some 10,000 I believe—that is 5 days worth of cannon fodder.
Ukraine cannot be forced to give up large portions of its territories. On principle this would merely embolden Putin. But as a practical matter, Ukraine was the bread basket of Russia. Putin wants a major and conveniently located food source back in his power along with the strategic location of Crimes which doubles as a favorite vacation location for Russians.
In my career as a city planner, I had a saying for people when they faced the intricacies of the zoning code: The angels are in the details. As intimidating as the code was, there would be answers deep inside that often solved people's problems. Now that am I somewhat over the shock of Trump's victory, I am looking for angels in the details. Your comments regarding Waltz' appointment may be the first one.
Very hopeful summary -great reading!