Best read ever with my morning coffee. And thank you for not being one of “those” who brushes by Canada’s commitments. I know, we have a lot to regain after the Justin era. He meant well, but he just didn’t have the mileage.
I was channeling a Vulcan mind meld between Merz and Carney for months. Phew!
An aside: I trust Starmer almost less than I trust the US. And I’m proud that we stepped forward.
Nah. I can't stand Starmer, and think the Labour govt is worse than the Tories. But buttering up Trump is just an act. He understands how Trump needs to be handled to keep him onside. Trump is just too stupid to understand that none of the fawning is real. Starmer and his European colleagues are fully aware they're dealing with a narcissistic nincompoop who is compromised by Russia. They'll do anything they can to ensure the safety of Europe, even if it means making a fool of themselves by sooking up to the diapered tyrant in public. I certainly couldn't do his job. Even if I was saying the nicest things to mango mussolini, my face would have subtitles! 😂
I worked with men like Starmer all my professional career and I think you seriously underestimate his abilities. Grabbing camera time with an extrovert personality is not what the UK needs right now. However, time will tell which of us is right.
“If Putin once dreamed that Western support would dry up, those dreams are over.”
Even before Carney’s move, when we had just seen the strong moves from Europe’s key leaders that made clear that the essential support in relation to Ukraine’s weapons would continue, it was IMO quite clear that it was no longer plausible for Putin’s strategy to work out. I mean the strategy of just keeping things going until Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s will to resist crumble. If that continues to be Russia’s strategy, that is likely to lead to Putin’s front lines collapsing and his fiscal options running out.
What we IMO don’t know yet is whether Russia’s current government still has the capability of accordingly adjusting their strategy. This depends not only on Putin personally; I’d say that it depends primarily on whether he still has analysts telling him what he needs to hear even if it’s things that he doesn’t like to hear. It also depends on whether Putin and his advisors see actions by countries like Canada and those in Western Europe as potentially significant and therefore worth talking and thinking about. If on the other hand, they look at the US only, the result of their analysis will be quite wrong and it might support a continuation of the current strategy and the now clearly-foolish dreams that it’s based on.
I agree that Carney’s move is quite significant in regard to finally providing leadership in regard to building the necessary deterrence-based security framework that can be activated after the current round of hostilities ends.
IMO the most likely scenario for how an armistice can come about is still not Putin having a change of mind so that he’d suddenly be willing to negotiate a reasonable and acceptable armistice, but a military putsch that puts a junta in power which wants to focus initially at least on preventing Russia from falling apart and on preserving the Russian state’s ability and willingness to pay its military personnel—in which context continuing to fight a war that they cannot win would be seen as an obstacle to their main goals.
But once there is an armistice, either with the current government of Russia or with the next one or with whoever can be negotiated with if Russia disintegrates, it will be crucial for the free world to be ready with a security framework that can then be moved into place so that the war will not resume after there is again a government in Moscow with economic and military strength.
I once had the good fortune to have a front row seat when Carney delivered a globally important speech on interest rates.
The first 20 minutes was a skit on the British economy in the first few years of the century, all taken seriously until a mischievous smile revealed he was talking about the thirteenth century (it was the Magna Carta address in Lincoln Cathedral in 2015).
Then he turned to the then current British and global economic conditions and I listened to every word, delivered clearly, cleanly and without ambiguity. As a Brit, I was delighted when the punch line came from a Canadian using one of those peculiar British expressions that says what it exactly means, but others may struggle to follow.
By the time I was home 40 minutes later, global financial press (including WSJ, NY Times, Sydney Morning Herald, etc) had completely rewritten what he said, and changed what was to be a 6 months away decision into a direct certainty.
Putin et al would do well to ready Carney's words very precisely, and follow them literally.
Thanks so much for that Shankar - my first Substack go to every morning - it’s great about Carney and it’s fascinating how different chain reactions work - if Trump had not gone mad to claim Canada as 51st state - Carney may not have gotten into leadership of Liberal party and Conservatives would have won easily the election - hopefully this action will also prompt a positive chain reaction
Excellent Shankar, great news. On the bright side, what are the chances if Canada does become the 51st state, Carney can be our president? Just asking for a friend…:)
Peacekeeping is in Canada's DNA. My father was part of Canada's peace-keeping operation in Cyprus at a time where tensions were very raw between the Greek and Turkish factions on the island.
Canada has participated in over 50 UN peacekeeping missions since 1947. In fact, our Prime Minister at the time, Lester Pearson, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1957 for organizing the United Nations Emergency Force to resolve the Suez Canal Crisis. He played a pivotal role in establishing the concept of UN peacekeeping during the 1956 Suez Crisis by proposing the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF). His leadership in creating this multinational force, is what earned him the 1957 Nobel Peace Prize and set a precedent for future UN missions, cementing Canada's reputation as a leader in peacekeeping.
Finally, some good news! Day after day, Trump edges closer to autocracy. His wavering stance on the Ukraine invasion a clear indicator of his envy of and desire to become a dictator himself.
Agree, excellent leadership by Carney on Ukraine. Provides cover for European allies, brings Canada closer to EU, and puts Putin in a difficult spot. I worry about the UK. Domestically, Labor is cutting services while funding Ukraine. They refuse to raise taxes. That won’t last. France’s parliament dissolved by the far left and far right via a confidence vote.
I hope Carney reaches the same level of leadership on Palestine and Israel, soon. Western governments lose credibility the more the genocide goes on, lessening the value to Ukraine of security guarantees.
"Canada cannot look the other way when Europe and Ukraine are under threat."
Neither can the United States! But, dang us, we do.
The United States has unwise voters who think that an election is an opportunity to express one's self and send government a message, rather than to make a real choice about the future. Couple that with our warped laws and electoral system, and Trump get into power, twice. I, and more Americans than you may be able to believe, are grateful to have our Canadian and European friends assume the leadership of the free world during these terrible times. We hope, someday, that our country will rejoin you in building a better world.
Best read ever with my morning coffee. And thank you for not being one of “those” who brushes by Canada’s commitments. I know, we have a lot to regain after the Justin era. He meant well, but he just didn’t have the mileage.
I was channeling a Vulcan mind meld between Merz and Carney for months. Phew!
An aside: I trust Starmer almost less than I trust the US. And I’m proud that we stepped forward.
I recommend you read about Starmer's NSA. He is the whole reason we reached this spot. I will soon write about it. He is excellent.
I feel he goes back and forth.
I will read. Thank you.
he is very much into the taco guy, always buttering him up
Nah. I can't stand Starmer, and think the Labour govt is worse than the Tories. But buttering up Trump is just an act. He understands how Trump needs to be handled to keep him onside. Trump is just too stupid to understand that none of the fawning is real. Starmer and his European colleagues are fully aware they're dealing with a narcissistic nincompoop who is compromised by Russia. They'll do anything they can to ensure the safety of Europe, even if it means making a fool of themselves by sooking up to the diapered tyrant in public. I certainly couldn't do his job. Even if I was saying the nicest things to mango mussolini, my face would have subtitles! 😂
I worked with men like Starmer all my professional career and I think you seriously underestimate his abilities. Grabbing camera time with an extrovert personality is not what the UK needs right now. However, time will tell which of us is right.
I look forward to being enlightened, then. Because I agree with JBO.
... and me with my Canadian whisky laced with a drop of maple ...
How else can we help you, Canada?
Help us?
Buy more whiskey…
“If Putin once dreamed that Western support would dry up, those dreams are over.”
Even before Carney’s move, when we had just seen the strong moves from Europe’s key leaders that made clear that the essential support in relation to Ukraine’s weapons would continue, it was IMO quite clear that it was no longer plausible for Putin’s strategy to work out. I mean the strategy of just keeping things going until Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s will to resist crumble. If that continues to be Russia’s strategy, that is likely to lead to Putin’s front lines collapsing and his fiscal options running out.
What we IMO don’t know yet is whether Russia’s current government still has the capability of accordingly adjusting their strategy. This depends not only on Putin personally; I’d say that it depends primarily on whether he still has analysts telling him what he needs to hear even if it’s things that he doesn’t like to hear. It also depends on whether Putin and his advisors see actions by countries like Canada and those in Western Europe as potentially significant and therefore worth talking and thinking about. If on the other hand, they look at the US only, the result of their analysis will be quite wrong and it might support a continuation of the current strategy and the now clearly-foolish dreams that it’s based on.
I agree that Carney’s move is quite significant in regard to finally providing leadership in regard to building the necessary deterrence-based security framework that can be activated after the current round of hostilities ends.
IMO the most likely scenario for how an armistice can come about is still not Putin having a change of mind so that he’d suddenly be willing to negotiate a reasonable and acceptable armistice, but a military putsch that puts a junta in power which wants to focus initially at least on preventing Russia from falling apart and on preserving the Russian state’s ability and willingness to pay its military personnel—in which context continuing to fight a war that they cannot win would be seen as an obstacle to their main goals.
But once there is an armistice, either with the current government of Russia or with the next one or with whoever can be negotiated with if Russia disintegrates, it will be crucial for the free world to be ready with a security framework that can then be moved into place so that the war will not resume after there is again a government in Moscow with economic and military strength.
One my readers. Paul Edwick:
I once had the good fortune to have a front row seat when Carney delivered a globally important speech on interest rates.
The first 20 minutes was a skit on the British economy in the first few years of the century, all taken seriously until a mischievous smile revealed he was talking about the thirteenth century (it was the Magna Carta address in Lincoln Cathedral in 2015).
Then he turned to the then current British and global economic conditions and I listened to every word, delivered clearly, cleanly and without ambiguity. As a Brit, I was delighted when the punch line came from a Canadian using one of those peculiar British expressions that says what it exactly means, but others may struggle to follow.
By the time I was home 40 minutes later, global financial press (including WSJ, NY Times, Sydney Morning Herald, etc) had completely rewritten what he said, and changed what was to be a 6 months away decision into a direct certainty.
Putin et al would do well to ready Carney's words very precisely, and follow them literally.
-------------
Wow....
Thanks so much for that Shankar - my first Substack go to every morning - it’s great about Carney and it’s fascinating how different chain reactions work - if Trump had not gone mad to claim Canada as 51st state - Carney may not have gotten into leadership of Liberal party and Conservatives would have won easily the election - hopefully this action will also prompt a positive chain reaction
True. Trump helped...
Just adding that Australian PM Albanese has also said his country will consider joining a peacekeeping force - if there is a peace to keep.
My favorite sentence:
“…and Europe's aid machinery now running independently of Washington's whims, Putin faces a grim calculus. ”
Excellent Shankar, great news. On the bright side, what are the chances if Canada does become the 51st state, Carney can be our president? Just asking for a friend…:)
Haha. Nooooooooo.
I was only joking. This is great news…:)
<shiver> Perish the thought!
I second that!
If you’re stuck with lemons, make lemonade…:)
Our northern neighbors, Canada and Norway, know Putin intends to dominate the Arctic with its nuclear submarines probing the open seas!
Perhaps Putin’s Ukrainian obsession is his Waterloo!
Peacekeeping is in Canada's DNA. My father was part of Canada's peace-keeping operation in Cyprus at a time where tensions were very raw between the Greek and Turkish factions on the island.
Canada has participated in over 50 UN peacekeeping missions since 1947. In fact, our Prime Minister at the time, Lester Pearson, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1957 for organizing the United Nations Emergency Force to resolve the Suez Canal Crisis. He played a pivotal role in establishing the concept of UN peacekeeping during the 1956 Suez Crisis by proposing the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF). His leadership in creating this multinational force, is what earned him the 1957 Nobel Peace Prize and set a precedent for future UN missions, cementing Canada's reputation as a leader in peacekeeping.
And THAT’S how you get a Nobel, Donnie.
Finally, some good news! Day after day, Trump edges closer to autocracy. His wavering stance on the Ukraine invasion a clear indicator of his envy of and desire to become a dictator himself.
Really enjoyed this read.
Agree, excellent leadership by Carney on Ukraine. Provides cover for European allies, brings Canada closer to EU, and puts Putin in a difficult spot. I worry about the UK. Domestically, Labor is cutting services while funding Ukraine. They refuse to raise taxes. That won’t last. France’s parliament dissolved by the far left and far right via a confidence vote.
I hope Carney reaches the same level of leadership on Palestine and Israel, soon. Western governments lose credibility the more the genocide goes on, lessening the value to Ukraine of security guarantees.
🇺🇦It’s time to end this evil war of Putin’s & begin the work of rebuilding Ukraine. Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦
OH CANADA! Excellent- many outloud WOW'S while reading your article today. Thank you Shankar!
Thanks Shankar, at last some positive news in recent days/weeks
"Canada cannot look the other way when Europe and Ukraine are under threat."
Neither can the United States! But, dang us, we do.
The United States has unwise voters who think that an election is an opportunity to express one's self and send government a message, rather than to make a real choice about the future. Couple that with our warped laws and electoral system, and Trump get into power, twice. I, and more Americans than you may be able to believe, are grateful to have our Canadian and European friends assume the leadership of the free world during these terrible times. We hope, someday, that our country will rejoin you in building a better world.