“Trump should have studied the Indian government's playbook and worked those angles to get what he wanted. A transactional approach would have delivered results.”
You’re right, but of course any potential path of action that would start with Trump studying something is doomed to fail right at the start.
Yes, the mistake is in attributing some sort of strategy to Trump's actions, there is none. He operates on "feelings" alone, he is 100% transactional, it isn't US interests, it is Trump's interests, it is whatever he thinks will benefit him, personally, he couldn't care less whether it is good for America or not. Despite already being president once, he has zero experience, because he doesn't care about any of it, I doubt he could point to ANY of these countries on a map. He is simply "looting America", that's it, he has exactly two interests, Trump, and money....
Shankar-good write up I think it will be interesting to see how the US reacts to this…India’s stance is understandable. Trump is stupid and he will let everything slip through his hands. Dump is having a hard time controlling things-I am hoping that Zelenskyy starts lobbing a few flamingos and getting serious about taking the next step at destroying Putin.
Total power shifts-in the end it is a good thing because Europe needs to stand on its own just as you have said.
This is just logical conclusion of a bully, who has no “leverage.” I guess Trump confused Zelenskyy and Ukraine with himself.
Furthermore, it was apparent Trump’s strategy, or lack thereof, would come back to haunt the Military Industrial Complex. I’m just shocked we haven’t seen their lobbyists go into overdrive already.
Bottom line: hundreds of thousands of jobs, in hundreds of congressional districts are at stake, with red states taking a good chunk of the hits. It actually speaks volumes that they haven’t flexed their muscles: Yet!
Furthermore, as far as Modi is concerned, I am not shocked. They had reinforced their ties with Russia back in 2021 with a military and technical cooperation pact. So Modi learning from Erdogan is almost a decade in the making; at least.
That said, Trump is putting the final nails in America’s coffin; although, India is still dependent on the West for a large portion of their GDP, so like you so eloquently stated, they have a foot in every door, and playing both sides against the middle.
And as far as trade, we import about $80 billion in goods and services and export approximately half of that. And considering India is still considered a leading emerging market (as evidenced by their 7.85% growth), it’s a bit overblown trying to claim that we have a bad trade deal with India. India is our eight largest trading partner, and there are mitigating circumstances for the differentials. They allow our major manufacturers to bring products to market far cheaper than we could produce on our own; especially when it comes to pharmaceuticals.
Additionally, as of today, India ranks 3rd in terms of Purchasing Power Parity to GDP, behind China (40%), US (30%), and India (18%), respectively. Therefore, their influence around the world is gaining traction, while the US’s economy is experiencing slower growth, and unbearable debt burdens.
Bottom line: Trump is still under the illusion of US hegemony, while all evidence points to the contrary.
And if there is one thing we can be sure of, it’s that while Heritage, The Federalist Society, Trump and the rest of the religious fascists he’ll belt on taking this country back to the 1950’s and 60’s; Trump still thinks we are the same dominating powerhouse in years gone by; to the detriment and peril of this nation. IMHO…:)
I agree with a lot of your analysis but I think the Modi miscalculated in the performative warmth with Putin. Ukraine will have taken note and India will find itself struggling with Europe and Ukraine when Ukraine wins.
Particularly when done within the context of the SCO summit.
Trust me, we won't forget. We are keeping a sharp eye on Modi's authoritarian tendencies anyway.
We hardly need to actively do anything, by the way. If Modi continues stoking religious strife, insurance of European investment in India will either become too costly, or it'll be killed altogether.
This happened to Turkey, and it'll happen to India. The noose around both Erdogan's and Modi's neck is of their own making...
I’m not ‘into’ military strategy or anything military really, but I still found this, and the comments, an interesting and educational read. Thank you.
I’m interested to see Trump’s reaction to the high stakes meeting of dictators to which he was not invited. Thanks for the thoughts on Modi’s approach. I know the least about him—-and must remedy that.
Thank you as always for the crystal clear explanations.
Trump is dementing so rapidly it's impossible to predict what "reaction" he'll be capable of. The rest of his administration is busy acting out their varied authoritarian delusions or enriching themselves - while maintaining a hyper-focus on the knife fight amongst the contenders to take over the MAGA cult. There will be no American foreign policy that doesn't flow from Trump's dissolving hindbrain from now to the end of his life.
That is in no way to deny or disrespect the sacrifice made by so many servicemen and women who risked their lives and spilled their blood on European soil battling for that very freedom against the tyrannies of Germany, Italy and Soviet Union.
Plus the dedication and extent of financial resources to rebuild those countries out of the rubble of fascism.
These are the sorts of things that this camaraderie is all about. The USA and its citizens are full of this stuff. They really are, and they can continue to be that beacon of hope for many.
Unfortunately, the USA just seems to have lost its way a bit, and yes, some European countries needed reminding instead of taking its friends for granted.
I have every confidence all the dots will join up happily again soon.
Thanks as always for your analysis Shankar. I’ve been telling my partner abt all the good news from Russia and the Pentagon “bro gang,” iow good for us, bad for them. When we need a pick-me-up we read how UKR has destroyed 17% 20% of RU’s refineries! I hope your faith in Rubio is well-placed. Slava Ukraine ❤️ 🇺🇦💪🏻
India is never going to open up the farm or dairy sector to GMO inputs. It has to be protected. Majority of India’s farmers are subsistence farmers and forcing them to buy GMO seeds from Cargill for every new planting is a non starter.
The botching of the US-India and US-Europe relationships makes sense if Trump acts as Moscow West. Doesn’t matter if it is by command or self-motivation, the result is the same.
The US Defense industry is cooked anyway. They focused on expanding profits and not production. US arms flow to enable Israel’s genocide.
We will soon get to the point other than air defense and fighter jets that the world boycotts US weapons as unreliable and for supporting Israel. Next will be the divestment from US assets, as has started for Israel.
Behind Russia, US, and Israel, China has major trade with all 3.
We do not understand other cultures, especially ones that predate our independence for thousands of years. Muslims/Democracy. Are you kidding? The have the Koran and hadith, no need for countries or laws. India as a rising power? Why try to bully them over what $10 billion of grifting over cheap oil? How much has Trump grifted?
“Trump should have studied the Indian government's playbook and worked those angles to get what he wanted. A transactional approach would have delivered results.”
You’re right, but of course any potential path of action that would start with Trump studying something is doomed to fail right at the start.
LOL. I did not factor that angle in.
Trump doesn’t study. Period. If it’s not on Fox, he doesn’t know anything.
Yes, the mistake is in attributing some sort of strategy to Trump's actions, there is none. He operates on "feelings" alone, he is 100% transactional, it isn't US interests, it is Trump's interests, it is whatever he thinks will benefit him, personally, he couldn't care less whether it is good for America or not. Despite already being president once, he has zero experience, because he doesn't care about any of it, I doubt he could point to ANY of these countries on a map. He is simply "looting America", that's it, he has exactly two interests, Trump, and money....
Well said…:)
My immediate reaction
Pretty much what I was about to post. I doubt Frump has studied anything, ever. Narcissistic sociopaths never do, because they’re always right.
Shankar-good write up I think it will be interesting to see how the US reacts to this…India’s stance is understandable. Trump is stupid and he will let everything slip through his hands. Dump is having a hard time controlling things-I am hoping that Zelenskyy starts lobbing a few flamingos and getting serious about taking the next step at destroying Putin.
Total power shifts-in the end it is a good thing because Europe needs to stand on its own just as you have said.
Brilliant analysis Shankar,
This is just logical conclusion of a bully, who has no “leverage.” I guess Trump confused Zelenskyy and Ukraine with himself.
Furthermore, it was apparent Trump’s strategy, or lack thereof, would come back to haunt the Military Industrial Complex. I’m just shocked we haven’t seen their lobbyists go into overdrive already.
Bottom line: hundreds of thousands of jobs, in hundreds of congressional districts are at stake, with red states taking a good chunk of the hits. It actually speaks volumes that they haven’t flexed their muscles: Yet!
Furthermore, as far as Modi is concerned, I am not shocked. They had reinforced their ties with Russia back in 2021 with a military and technical cooperation pact. So Modi learning from Erdogan is almost a decade in the making; at least.
That said, Trump is putting the final nails in America’s coffin; although, India is still dependent on the West for a large portion of their GDP, so like you so eloquently stated, they have a foot in every door, and playing both sides against the middle.
And as far as trade, we import about $80 billion in goods and services and export approximately half of that. And considering India is still considered a leading emerging market (as evidenced by their 7.85% growth), it’s a bit overblown trying to claim that we have a bad trade deal with India. India is our eight largest trading partner, and there are mitigating circumstances for the differentials. They allow our major manufacturers to bring products to market far cheaper than we could produce on our own; especially when it comes to pharmaceuticals.
Additionally, as of today, India ranks 3rd in terms of Purchasing Power Parity to GDP, behind China (40%), US (30%), and India (18%), respectively. Therefore, their influence around the world is gaining traction, while the US’s economy is experiencing slower growth, and unbearable debt burdens.
Bottom line: Trump is still under the illusion of US hegemony, while all evidence points to the contrary.
And if there is one thing we can be sure of, it’s that while Heritage, The Federalist Society, Trump and the rest of the religious fascists he’ll belt on taking this country back to the 1950’s and 60’s; Trump still thinks we are the same dominating powerhouse in years gone by; to the detriment and peril of this nation. IMHO…:)
I agree with a lot of your analysis but I think the Modi miscalculated in the performative warmth with Putin. Ukraine will have taken note and India will find itself struggling with Europe and Ukraine when Ukraine wins.
Particularly when done within the context of the SCO summit.
It runs a lot deeper. Some of the largest Indian firms, that support Modi, are making a ton of money using Russian oil.
The Ukrainians won't forget.
I hope the Europeans don't forget.
Trust me, we won't forget. We are keeping a sharp eye on Modi's authoritarian tendencies anyway.
We hardly need to actively do anything, by the way. If Modi continues stoking religious strife, insurance of European investment in India will either become too costly, or it'll be killed altogether.
This happened to Turkey, and it'll happen to India. The noose around both Erdogan's and Modi's neck is of their own making...
Modi's government is well past "tendencies," with our Dear Leader trying to catch up.
Meanwhile, Russkiy Mir Substack (and their worker bees) are LOVING this. Suddenly BRICS seems like more than a tee-shirt logo.
Ukrainians won't let them forget.
I’m not ‘into’ military strategy or anything military really, but I still found this, and the comments, an interesting and educational read. Thank you.
I’m interested to see Trump’s reaction to the high stakes meeting of dictators to which he was not invited. Thanks for the thoughts on Modi’s approach. I know the least about him—-and must remedy that.
Thank you as always for the crystal clear explanations.
Trump is dementing so rapidly it's impossible to predict what "reaction" he'll be capable of. The rest of his administration is busy acting out their varied authoritarian delusions or enriching themselves - while maintaining a hyper-focus on the knife fight amongst the contenders to take over the MAGA cult. There will be no American foreign policy that doesn't flow from Trump's dissolving hindbrain from now to the end of his life.
Thanks Shankar; masterful as ever… luckily for us, you haven’t been headhunted (yet?) for a top-level political job somewhere else!
The Free World is at last finding its freedom, and leaving the USA to eat itself until it rediscovers its part in it.
That is in no way to deny or disrespect the sacrifice made by so many servicemen and women who risked their lives and spilled their blood on European soil battling for that very freedom against the tyrannies of Germany, Italy and Soviet Union.
Plus the dedication and extent of financial resources to rebuild those countries out of the rubble of fascism.
These are the sorts of things that this camaraderie is all about. The USA and its citizens are full of this stuff. They really are, and they can continue to be that beacon of hope for many.
Unfortunately, the USA just seems to have lost its way a bit, and yes, some European countries needed reminding instead of taking its friends for granted.
I have every confidence all the dots will join up happily again soon.
Shankar, the bottom line on t***p’s tariffs: “You escalated this. You find the exit ramp. “
Trump and his administration are a bunch of incompetents who think they’re smarter than everyone else . They ain’t.
Thanks as always for your analysis Shankar. I’ve been telling my partner abt all the good news from Russia and the Pentagon “bro gang,” iow good for us, bad for them. When we need a pick-me-up we read how UKR has destroyed 17% 20% of RU’s refineries! I hope your faith in Rubio is well-placed. Slava Ukraine ❤️ 🇺🇦💪🏻
India is never going to open up the farm or dairy sector to GMO inputs. It has to be protected. Majority of India’s farmers are subsistence farmers and forcing them to buy GMO seeds from Cargill for every new planting is a non starter.
The botching of the US-India and US-Europe relationships makes sense if Trump acts as Moscow West. Doesn’t matter if it is by command or self-motivation, the result is the same.
The US Defense industry is cooked anyway. They focused on expanding profits and not production. US arms flow to enable Israel’s genocide.
We will soon get to the point other than air defense and fighter jets that the world boycotts US weapons as unreliable and for supporting Israel. Next will be the divestment from US assets, as has started for Israel.
Behind Russia, US, and Israel, China has major trade with all 3.
Thanks, Shankar!
We appreciate your discussion and analysis of important defense issues!
We do not understand other cultures, especially ones that predate our independence for thousands of years. Muslims/Democracy. Are you kidding? The have the Koran and hadith, no need for countries or laws. India as a rising power? Why try to bully them over what $10 billion of grifting over cheap oil? How much has Trump grifted?
There is absolutely no alliance or trust that Trump isn’t destroying
America’s preeminence on the world stage is rapidly shrinking and our exports reflect that and it’s only getting worse
This will greatly increase our cost to defend ourselves since the rest of the world is shifting to buying military gear elsewhere
Without military exports, the cost of research, development and manufacturing of our weapons will climb
Trump really can’t get anything right