Zelensky Pulls Trump Back to the Middle

Two Days, Two Blows to Putin

The pendulum has swung back again—not all the way, but close to the middle.

Details of the Ukraine-United States minerals deal continue to trickle in, and it’s nothing like the proposal Wall Street presented to Ukraine’s president two weeks ago. This version is drastically different and far from finalized. Instead, it serves as more of a framework, outlining the boundaries of a future agreement.

CNN reported Monday, citing a Ukrainian source familiar with the negotiations, that some of the thornier details about the resources deal would be negotiated in subsequent talks, and that the US and Ukrainian presidents might discuss the security guarantees in person.

Speaking to Ukrainian TV, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that United States and Ukraine have reached preliminary agreement to establish an "investment fund." According to Shmyhal, Kyiv and Washington would manage the fund as equal partners. Ukraine's contribution would come from 50% of future revenues generated by state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas, which would then be reinvested into domestic projects.

President Zelensky has acknowledged the fund but also added that it was "too early to talk about money."

The Trump administration has dropped its demand for $500 billion from Ukraine, while Ukraine has softened its stance on security guarantees. Based on statements from various Ukrainian officials, it seems this is why Zelensky wants a direct meeting with Trump—to understand exactly what kind of security assurances he’s willing to make, whether written or verbal. Some guarantees Trump might put in writing, others he may only agree to informally. But Zelensky likely wants to hear it from Trump himself, as that clarity would help both Ukrainian and American teams refine the details.

For example, if Trump tells Zelensky directly, "I’m fine with that request," it could prevent his Wall Street allies from steering the deal in a different direction later. Zelensky can’t achieve that level of certainty if he’s only communicating with Trump through intermediaries. A face-to-face discussion would cut through the noise.

Trump’s stance on Ukraine has noticeably softened since the minerals deal started taking shape. Instead of the "hundreds of billions" he once demanded, his Truth Social post yesterday mentioned "tens of billions"—a major shift.

And then, earlier today, something else caught my attention. When reporters asked Trump what Ukraine would receive in exchange for the minerals deal, he pointed to the aid the U.S. has already provided, mentioning "lots of ... military equipment and the right to fight on."

In other words, Ukraine can keep using American weapons until a deal with Russia is reached.

Phew...

Whatever framework is ultimately agreed upon, there’s one crucial request Zelensky must make: Trump needs to commit that he will not lift sanctions on Russia until a deal with Moscow is fully finalized.

Russia will be working every possible angle to pressure the Trump administration into easing sanctions, using both direct and indirect influence. While discussions about sanctions can take place, they cannot be lifted under any circumstances until the very end. That has to be the final piece of any negotiation.

If Zelensky can secure that concession—and I believe it’s very doable—it would be a major win. Putin has spent years feeding Trump the narrative that Russia’s economy is booming and that he’s stronger than ever. Trump, likely believing this, may not see any urgency in lifting sanctions early. Zelensky must ensure that Trump’s misplaced confidence in Putin works in Ukraine’s favor.

It’s also critical for Ukraine to lock Trump into a clear position. And for that, Zelensky needs to handle it personally. This is not a negotiation that can be effectively managed through intermediaries—it requires a direct, one-on-one conversation.

His upcoming visit to Washington, D.C., is a good move. It gives him the chance to engage with key Republican leaders who have already distanced themselves from Trump’s stance on Putin. That kind of political backing could make a difference.

It will help.

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