With 40 days until the election, Harris and Trump chart different paths to victory.
Both sides are trying to minmize direct contact
The presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is unfolding in a way I have never witnessed before. Typically, campaigns compete in all battleground states, though the intensity may vary depending on the importance of each state. Of course, some states are considered must-win.
However, I have never seen both sides so actively strategizing to avoid a direct confrontation as much as they are now.
The Kamala Harris campaign is aiming to reach 270 electoral votes by focusing on Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is targeting North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona to reach 270. North Carolina and Pennsylvania appear to be the only two states that both campaigns are seriously trying to stop the other side from winning. Even then, it seems that the Trump campaign is content to keep PA competitive but not willing to fight tooth and nail to win it.
This strategy could work for both campaigns, but the issue is that it will bring both sides very close to 270, leaving just one or two states to push one of them over the finish line. It’s going to be a nerve-wracking experience for all of us. If you’re surprised by the Harris campaign’s apparent weakness in Georgia and Arizona, don’t be. It’s partly due to the strategic approach Harris is taking to reach 270.
Both Arizona and Georgia rank low on the Harris campaign’s priority list at the moment.
Pennsyvlania
Michigan and Wisconsin
North Carolina
Nevada
Arizona and Georgia
Not a bad plan, as winning North Carolina would effectively end Trump’s 2024 dreams. However, the issue with this path to 270 is that it keeps Donald Trump in the race until election day, leaving a path to victory open for him.
I think Harris needs to ramp up her efforts in Arizona. The state isn’t beyond her reach. Democratic Senate candidate Gallego is comfortably leading Kari Lake, which provides some tailwinds for Harris. Arizona is winnable, but I’m still not seeing much effort from the Harris campaign to secure the state.
Will this doom her campaign? No.
But I do believe the Harris campaign needs to be a bit bolder. They’ve prioritized safety, and so has the Trump campaign.
Trump has no choice but to take a cautious approach since he’s significantly behind in campaign funds. Harris doesn’t face that constraint. Some level of risk could benefit her campaign, but I’m not seeing it. They are working hard — much harder than the Trump campaign. I just wish they would take a few more calculated risks.
If they continue with their current strategy, we may end up seeing headlines like this one more frequently as the election cycle enters its final phase.
Think about it for a minute. If both sides focus on reaching 270 electoral votes by keeping Pennsylvania and North Carolina in the middle, what will happen? The race will remain deadlocked until election day, with the outcome hinging on those two states. Whoever wins them will win the election.
It won’t feel like an election for the entire United States; it will feel like a “PANC” election. But that’s where things stand right now. Unless the Harris campaign chooses to shift gears, this situation will continue. It’s going to be a nerve-wracking ride, so be prepared.
Where is the anti-Trump GOP vote?
I’m starting to get a bit worried about the polling numbers. Over the last two years, we’ve seen a significant number of anti-Trump voters within the GOP. Nearly 30% of residents in Wyoming voted for Liz Cheney despite Donald Trump campaigning against her. In many states, Nikki Haley garnered more than 20% of the votes. Of course, there are plenty of Mitt Romney-type voters in the GOP as well.
However, if you look at the polling numbers, you’ll notice that almost all of them indicate the entire Republican coalition is rallying behind Donald Trump, with some even showing him at 95%.
It is absolutely impossible to reach that level; it defies all logic.
Look at how much Republican support Trump had in 2016 and 2020. Pollsters are claiming that Donald Trump has improved his standing with Republican voters in 2024. I’m not suggesting that the entire 30% who voted for Liz Cheney during her GOP primary will switch their allegiance to Kamala Harris, but there’s no way that every single person in that 30% will back Donald Trump.
Let’s revisit this number after the elections are over. I believe Donald Trump's support among Republicans will likely fall below 92%, possibly even closer to 90%. This indicates that pollsters are overestimating his support levels in this election cycle. We’ll see. I’m extremely concerned that pollsters are suggesting there are no anti-Trump votes within the GOP.
This one figure remains a significant concern for me as I read the polls.