Why Wisconsin is the new Pennsylvania
Both sides will keep coming back to this state
Almost at the finish line yet seemingly back at the starting point—that’s exactly how it feels watching the Trump and Harris campaigns line up in Wisconsin to rally their voters.
Though Wisconsin has just ten electoral votes, it stands out among the crucial trio of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania as Trump's best chance to block Harris from sweeping the three states and reaching 270.
Compared to most battleground states, Wisconsin is smaller, except for Nevada. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Wisconsin cast a total of 3,298,041 votes. Trump won the state in 2016, then lost it by a narrow margin in 2020. In 2022, Republican Senator Ron Johnson won it again, marking another slim victory.
Trump’s 2020 loss was by 20,000 votes, while Johnson’s 2022 win was by 26,000. With numbers like these, Wisconsin holds enough voters to give both sides hope of a win.
After the MSG rally, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping away from the Trump campaign. This morning, I saw Elon Musk making the case that Trump will win bigly in Pennsylvania. But then, this is the same man who has been promising every year that Auto Pilot will soon be Auto Pilot. It's always just around the corner. Why not?
Talk about occupying Mars while occupying satellite internet.
Show them one thing while doing another.
Classic.
Pennsylvania is where the gender gap has been the widest among all the battleground states, and it’s also where Democrats have significantly outpaced Republicans in early voting. Despite this, early voting turnout is still relatively low—just 27.2% of the 2020 turnout, while Georgia and North Carolina are already approaching 80%.
The issue for the Trump campaign in PA is that the gap in early votes between Democrats and Republicans has already exceeded 400,000. Trump would need to win by the Election Day by a massive margin just to narrow this deficit. It doesn’t look likely.
Yesterday, I wrote that Trump and his amplifier would target Pennsylvania the hardest. And today, the amplifier did exactly that. So, don’t be surprised when both Trump and the amplifier keep this up. Be surprised if they don’t. A smart campaign that’s truly striving to win would be pouring resources into driving Republican turnout in rural Pennsylvania counties. But Trump has no ground game at all; he never invested in one.
The reason is simple: he didn’t have enough funding. That’s been a major problem. So, what options are left? One option is to attack Pennsylvania and lay the groundwork to contest the electoral slate. The other option is to look for a win in Michigan or Wisconsin. Harris’s lead has been the most stable in Michigan, so that’s unlikely to yield results.
As you can see from the image above, Trump needs to prevent Harris from reaching 270 electoral votes before she reaches North Carolina. This is why Trump has decided to focus his efforts on Wisconsin. Another factor influencing this decision is the GOP Senate arm, along with outside groups, investing $100 million into Wisconsin’s Senate race at the beginning of this month.
After the GOP cash infusion, the Democratic lead in the state started to waver, and the race tightened. Throughout October, the Senate race has been within one or two points for the Republicans. Now, they’re seeing if they can leverage this momentum and win the state by a narrow margin.
It’s not a bad plan. Given the current campaign cash flow and ground investments, it’s a realistic strategy under the circumstances.
The good news for the Harris campaign is that they’re fully aware of the Trump-GOP moves. Harris was in Wisconsin yesterday and is expected to return on Friday.
The battleground map has narrowed. This is the playing field now, and where most of the focus will stay in the coming days.
Focusing on Wisconsin isn’t a bad strategy for the Trump campaign. Harris needs to stay there until the last vote is cast. I believe she should concentrate most of her time on Wisconsin and Nevada. Nationally, she should ramp up her focus on the economy and border security.
She needs to ignore Trump and stay focused on her plan for the country.
Trump and Musk will continue with their usual playbook; they’re onto plan B now. Harris has just one plan: to win all seven battlegrounds.
Keeps things simple, if you ask me.
Really good - detailed and well thought through! The early voting in Wisconsin shows the Democrats in the lead by more than 10%; we'll keep our fingers crossed.
I’m thinking WI will fall - I don’t see MI, PA, and not WI , again vibes, genz , women, and even elders … plus Wikler . The more I’ve read , more Independent analysts are converging in their opinions now— a pseudo aggregate if you will. Some are rosier than others , but it’s all lining up nicely. I’d add that the entire month of OCT was daily gifts one after another , and now every step he takes, every word out of his mouth . And when he tours the states wearing his proud boys colors it makes me very angry. Take the loss and leave us alone .