Why the Media Refuses to talk About Trump’s Weakness with Women?

Women vote, by a lot. (Licensed Image)

In 2020, the number of eligible women registered to vote reached 88.96 million, a full nine million more than men. Women didn’t simply register and stay home — they actually came out to vote. Since 1980, more women than men have cast their ballots in every presidential election. In 2020, the difference was 9.68 million.

9.68 million

The gap between men and women at the polls tends to narrow during non-presidential election years, but it widens significantly when a presidential race is at stake.

The 2024 election is unlikely to be any different.

Voter registration isn’t over yet, but this is already a record-breaking year for women, with 89 million registered to vote. Biden’s 2020 victory was partly due to his 11-point margin of support among women compared to Trump — 55% for Biden versus 44% for Trump.

So, however you analyze the election numbers, it’s clear that the level of women’s support for the presidential candidates is a crucial starting point. But the last time I heard a major news channel discuss women voters in detail was… hmmm… I actually don’t remember.

In a poll conducted by Echelon Insights in the last week of September, Kamala Harris maintained the same 11-point advantage with women — 54% for Harris and 43% for Trump. Interestingly, she also had a one-point lead with men, 49% to 48%. Trump won men by two points in 2020, but now he’s trailing by one. That’s a three-point swing in the opposite direction.

Oopsie. Credit: Echleon

It’s not very surprising that Kamala Harris continues to hold a national polling edge against Donald Trump. She took the national lead on August 1, 2024, and expanded it by September 1, 2024. The trendline is upward, and her lead is holding as we enter the final stretch of the election cycle.

Harris has maintained the traditional Democratic advantage with women while weakening Donald Trump’s support among them. If women increase their turnout rate this year, that alone could propel Harris over the finish line. Even a one percent increase over 2020 could make a significant difference.

The gap between men’s and women’s turnout in 2020 was 3.4%. If that increases by even one percent, Harris will win — and win big.

Women tend to vote thoughtfully. They strive to keep their homes in order, and that instinct often extends to their country. Decency resonates with them, which is why dictators often target women’s right to participate in governance. When women are empowered, they tend to support democracy.

So, I really don’t understand why the media avoids discussing women’s support for Harris or forecasting their turnout for this election. That single number is the most crucial factor in U.S. elections. Perhaps the fear is that highlighting it could motivate women to vote, potentially causing an outcome the media doesn’t prefer.

Personally, I’ve always seen the margin by which presidential candidates win over women as the top indicator for winning the White House. Every other metric comes after that — even battleground polling numbers.