Why Russia Fears Ukraine will Achieve a Critical Breakthrough
Putin’s commanders are inching closer to the panic button
If you remember, there was quite a stir from the western front, thanks in part to Russian propaganda machinery, when Ukraine had its first encounter with a group of western-supplied armored units in battle near Mala Tokmachka. Unfortunately, they ended up losing those units.
The Kremlin took an excessive delight in disseminating this information, which led US Defense Secretary Austin to remark that the Russians were sharing the same set of photos from a thousand different angles. While it is accurate that Ukraine did indeed lose those vehicles, the Western world became overly engrossed in the notion that the offensive was somewhat of a failure, and they are still grappling to move past that perception.
Just yesterday, Ukraine dealt a significant blow to a Russian army near Avdiivka. Ukraine had the potential to share an array of images from various angles and declare a resounding victory, but they chose not to do so. Surprisingly, the Western world has shown little interest in covering the developments in the Avdiivka region. It appears that Ukraine’s victories may not be as captivating as Russia’s successes, or perhaps there’s a deep desire to push the perception that Ukraine is facing a stalemate.
Ukraine refrained from prematurely declaring victory and boasting about the destruction of a substantial number of Russian armored vehicles in this battle, recognizing that the conflict in Avdiivka is far from over. The situation remains dynamic, with many variables yet to be taken into account before any potential triumph can be announced.
Before delving into Ukraine’s strategy in Avdiivka, it’s essential to navigate through the occupation map, gaining insight into the objectives and intentions of the Russian army.
Ukraine is at an extremely critical point near Bakhmut
On the 18th of September, Ukraine successfully reclaimed Klishchiivka, just a few days after liberating Andriivka. Both of these villages are situated less than ten kilometers from Bakhmut. This achievement marked a notable victory, prompting an immediate response from President Zelensky.
“Today, I would like to particularly commend the soldiers who, step by step, are returning to Ukraine what belongs to it, namely in the area of Bakhmut,” said President Zelensky
As evident in the image provided, it has been nearly a month, and Ukraine’s progress has been limited, with its forces making slow headway beyond Andriivka and Klishiivka. This sluggish advance is primarily due to the Russians’ determined and fierce resistance, as they have been exerting every effort to prevent Ukraine from gaining control of the crucial railway line linking to Bakhmut. Ukraine’s strategic objective is to secure the railway line and subsequently gain control of the nearby highway located a few kilometers to the east.
Russia is determined not to relinquish control of these essential supply routes since losing them would render the defense of Bakhmut city exceedingly challenging. In theory, one might argue that they could maintain some control from the southern approach to Bakhmut. However, relying solely on a single supply route to sustain their troops would pose a considerable risk. Such reliance is akin to a precarious journey down a treacherous path. Ukraine could easily position its artillery at critical intersections along this route, employ a small drone unit for continuous surveillance, and persistently disrupt the flow of supplies.
Earlier today the Institute for the Study of war reported, “The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved some unspecified successes east of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and east of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut). Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and have advanced several hundred meters in unspecified areas”.
Few hundred meters is a lot of distance from where Ukraine is currently positioned near Klischivka and Andriivka. In terms of liberated territory, it may not mean much, but taking control of that railway line will be the first step to knock Bakhmut out of Russian control. With the potential to reinforce this sector with additional units, Ukraine could intensify its efforts and potentially achieve a breakthrough.
How can you stop that from happening?
You start attacking at some other place.
This is one of the reasons Russia suddenly started counter-attacking near Avdiivka, at a scale we have not witnessed since June. (not to be confused with Andriivka near Bakhmut)
If Russia has the troops to attack Avdiivka, then why not move them all the way to Bakhmut to stop a vital Ukrainian breakthrough? That is because of the tactical brilliance of Ukrainian armed forces.
How Ukraine complicated things for Russia
It’s not only Bakhmut; Ukraine is also on the cusp of a crucial breakthrough in the Robotyne axis. This impending advancement may not result in a substantial expansion of liberated territory, but its significance lies in the fact that Ukraine will establish a secure position behind the Surovikin line, which is the paramount defensive barrier in Southern Ukraine.
The Surovikin line constitutes the initial and most formidable set of defensive fortifications constructed by the Russians. Ukraine has been engaged in a game of cat and mouse with this defensive line for nearly three weeks. Despite Russia’s extensive efforts to hinder Ukraine’s progress and safeguard the line, none of their strategies have proven effective.
Russia has two weaknesses, Bakhmut and Robotyne. Both lines can break down any time. The distance between the two spots is 250 kilometers. Enter Avdiivka, which is around 50 kilometers from Bakhmut and 150 kilometers from Robotyne.
Moving Russian troops to Robotyne would have made them vulnerable in Bakhmut. Moving troops to Bakhmut would have made them vulnerable in Robotyne. Russia is already running out of reserves and they do not have the cushion, or confidence to stop Ukraine from breaking through in Bakhmut and Robotyne. As a result, they chose to attack Avdiivka.
This move, if successful, will allow Russia to draw more Ukrainian troops to Avdiivka, reliving the pressure they are facing in Robotyne and Bakhmut. I should also note here that a Russian victory in Avdiivka, will also reduce the bite of losing Bakhmut or a Ukrainian breakthrough in Robotyne.
You can never remove optics from Russian strategists.
Under duress, it appears they may have selected an unfavorable location to draw the Ukrainian troops. Avdiivka happens to be one of the most fiercely contested areas on the occupation map. Ukraine’s well-fortified defensive positions within the town, combined with their improving grasp of the terrain, are becoming increasingly evident.
Russia lost a huge number of vehicles and personnel during the Avdiivka counterattack in the last 48 hours.
Russian forces have not secured any major breakthroughs near Avdiivka as of October 12 and are unlikely to immediately cut off Ukrainian forces in the city.
Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion tactical group’s (BTG’s) worth of armored vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka.
The Russian assault on Avdiivka presents a potential pitfall for both sides, as the first to yield could encounter significant repercussions. At present, it appears that Russia aims to open a fresh front in the conflict to alleviate pressure on existing fronts. However, it remains premature for me to conclude whether Russia will push their tactics too far.
The Russian assault on Avdiivka somehow brought to mind the Battle of the Ardennes during the Second World War.
The Battle of the Ardennes was a major battle fought during World War II between the German army and the Allied forces. The battle took place in the Ardennes Forest in Belgium and Luxembourg, from December 16, 1944 to January 25, 1945.
The German military strategy was to launch a surprise counterattack through the Ardennes Forest, which was a heavily forested region that was thought to be impassable for tanks. The Germans hoped to split the Allied forces in two and capture the port city of Antwerp, which was a vital supply line for the Allies.
The Germans chose to counterattack because they were in a desperate situation. The Allied forces had been advancing on all fronts, and the Germans were facing defeat. The Germans hoped that a successful counterattack would turn the tide of the war. The Allies were initially caught off guard by the German counterattack. However, they quickly recovered and were able to resist the German advance. The Allies also received reinforcements from the United States and Britain.
The Battle of the Ardennes was a major defeat for the German army. The Germans lost over 300,000 men, and they were forced to retreat.
While it’s still possible to make such a mistake, the Russian army, for all its tactical stupidity, has not performed like a like a group of amateurs. They haven’t consistently compounded their strategic errors. Whenever things spiraled out of control, they opted for a slowdown, grinding it out for the next few weeks or the next month.
So, I don’t anticipate them repeating the mistake made by the Nazis in the Ardennes, but there’s always an element of uncertainty. Nonetheless, I genuinely hope they do.