Ukraine Takes a Major Step Toward Challenging Russian Air Superiority

Begins to Take Out Russian Glidebombs

F16 launching a glide bomb

A few weeks ago, a Ukrainian military blogger reported a sharp reduction in Russian glide bomb attacks, but the reason was unclear. At first, I assumed the slowdown was linked to the Biden administration’s decision to relax long-range missile restrictions on Ukraine, leading to Russian jets retreating to deeper bases. The assumption was that the Russians were adjusting to flying from these bases, and glide bomb attacks would pick up again after a brief lull.

However, it seems the decline in glide bomb attacks is due to Ukraine's innovation. The Institute for the Study of War reported earlier today that “Ukrainian forces are using machine guns and electronic warfare (EW) to down and divert guided glide bombs, as their lack of a thermal signature prevents portable air defense systems from targeting them.”

Russian glide bomb attacks markedly slowed down since mid November. Source: Vitaly

Russian glide bomb strikes have devastated Ukrainian frontlines, marking one of the few areas where Russia has consistently innovated since launching its first glide bomb in March 2023. They started on a small scale, gradually ramping up to over 150 bombs dropped in a single day.

Glide bombs are essentially non-powered bombs that rely on aerodynamics to glide toward their target once released from an aircraft. Unlike regular bombs, they are equipped with wings, guidance systems, and sometimes control surfaces, allowing them to "glide" to their target. Some use advanced guidance systems that combine inertial guidance with GPS for improved accuracy.

These glide bombs differ significantly from missiles launched by fighter jets.

Missiles are self-propelled and designed for long-range precision strikes, while glide bombs have a shorter range of around 70 to 80 kilometers. This limited range forces Russian jets to get closer to the frontline before launching their bombs. Typically, Russian jets approach within 40 kilometers of the Ukrainian front, release the bombs, and then scramble back. The glide bombs' lack of a thermal signature makes them difficult for air-defense systems to target.

The best option for Ukraine would be to take out the fighter jets, rather than trying to intercept the glide bombs themselves.

However, Russian fighter jets remain 40 kilometers inside enemy territory, out of range of Ukraine's short-range air-defense systems. To counter this, Ukraine would need to deploy long-range or medium-range air-defense systems closer to the frontlines. Given that the front stretches over 800 miles, Ukraine would need a substantial number of these systems to effectively challenge Russian jets.

While the West could provide Ukraine with more air-defense systems, doing so would grant Ukraine greater control of the skies, ultimately leading to Russia’s defeat—an outcome unimaginable for many. As a result, Ukraine’s air-defense capacity remains less than optimal, allowing Russia to maintain air superiority and continue its glide bomb attacks.

This leeway has enabled Russia to relentlessly drop glide bombs, with an average of 100 bombs a day this year. These attacks played a crucial role in Russia's capture of Avdiivka in February 2024. Russian forces pounded Ukrainian defensive positions in the pocket, while ground troops encircled the area from three directions. The Ukrainian defense, already weakened by a lack of ammunition, could not hold the line. Cracks appeared, and the Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat. Without the continuous glide bomb attacks, Russia would not have been able to take control of the town and may not have pushed further into the Donetsk region.

Glide bombs have allowed Russia to impose a heavy cost on Ukrainian armed forces, and until now, Ukraine had no effective counter. That helplessness has now ended. Ukraine is using electronic warfare equipment and mobile machine gunners to bring down the glide bombs.

This shift will have a significant impact on the number of casualties among Russian forces. Without the constant pressure of glide bomb strikes, Ukraine can strengthen its ground defenses. Due to a severe shortage of armored personnel carriers and vehicles, Russia is relying on dismounted assaults to engage Ukrainian frontlines. Soldiers often advance on foot, in golf carts, motorcycles, or even vans. Ukrainian defenders, now free from constantly fearing the sound of incoming glide bombs, can destroy these forces from their fortified positions.

The situation will improve even further once Ukraine receives its first squadron of Mirage jets. The Ukrainian Air Force will be able to use the Mirage 2000s to target Russian fighter jets, which have been getting closer to the frontline to launch glide bombs. With ground forces countering the glide bombs and the Air Force engaging Russian jets, Russian glide bomb sorties will be under pressure, alleviating some of the strain on Ukrainian troops in the trenches.