Ukraine Strikes Moscow's Oil Lifeline
The depth and intensity of Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure continues to grow.
For years, and to be exactly specific, up until the day two Storm Shadow missiles whistled past an S-400 battery and lodged themselves into the Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea in September 2023, I kept thinking that Russia's size and its breadth was a huge advantage.
The distance from the frontline to the Black Sea Fleet (former) headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea is easily 250 kilometers. The Storm Shadow missiles didn't just beat one or two air defense systems – they evaded every layer of the air defense network the Russians had built in occupied territory.
That was the first day it became clear that Russian air-defense is incapable of handling Western missiles, and by extension their size is – as a result – their biggest weakness.
The proof kept coming.
After striking Russian oil refineries at regular high-frequency intervals this month, Ukraine has now turned their attention to Russian pipelines carrying oil. First to burst was the Druzhba pipeline that carried oil to Hungary and Slovakia – struck multiple times in August, with the latest attack on August 18 hitting the pumping station in Russia's Tambov region.
Next to break down was the Ryazan-Moscow main oil pipeline, which exploded on August 26 near the village of Bozhatkovo in Ryazan Oblast, disrupting petroleum product supplies to Moscow for an indefinite period.
Had this happened in 2023, Jake Sullivan would have called his counterpart in Germany and together they would have told Ukraine: stop it – or else. They would have most likely left the sentence there and let Ukraine fill the gap.
Wasn't that exactly what happened with the Patriot air defense systems?
Ukraine knocked out more than five Russian aircraft and helicopters in May 2023 and then suddenly stopped using the Patriots for offensive operations.
After attacking Russian refineries at a relentless pace in March 2024, there was barely any attack at all afterward.
The pattern was clear: threatening aid was how the USA controlled the war. They sat there hoping Putin would magnanimously withdraw his troops on his own. It never happened. All that happened was Putin found new ways to escalate and Ukraine kept losing lives for no reason, other than a flawed strategy by its key ally.
But that dynamic is shifting. Now the US barely supplies anything.
Exactly one year—
That is all that is left before Patriot air defense missiles roll out of German production lines. As of today, the United States has very little leverage over Ukraine. That loss of leverage is now starting to show. I also think that the time has come for Ukraine to draw its line. No need to take advice from the United States on what to attack and what not to.
Let us not forget. The United States is not sending military aid to Ukraine. You don't sell me a washing machine, take full payment, include a fee for lifetime service, allow me to sign a paper for additional costs for spares to be borne by me and then call me one month later and ask me why am I using the machine every day.
They are a seller. The demanded being called as seller. So treat them like one. Don't say it in public – because that is what Putin would want. But do it in practice. Let the seller know there are boundaries.
Ukraine is now executing these attacks on assets inside Russian territory using their drones. I am not sure if they have deployed (or planning to deploy) their long-range missiles. If they start deploying long range missiles the impact will be many times higher.
Germany can give Ukraine a huge lift. If they start manufacturing Taurus missiles at volume, it will not only help Ukraine, but it will also help Europe in the long run. The US is now selling 3,350 ERAM missiles to Ukraine. Germany has a total of 600 Taurus missiles in its warehouse.
It makes no sense that Germany has yet to place an order to manufacture thousands of Taurus missiles. I think it is the SPD – Scholz's party – trying to protect its face for refusing to supply the Taurus missiles to Ukraine, that is now blocking Merz from placing a massive order. Since Merz needs their support in the Bundestag, he is not moving against their decision.
This is freakin' stupid. Bad for Germany in the longer run. It is ok if you don't want to send them to Ukraine. But it is not ok to not address the need for thousands of missiles. The SPD has to change its stance. Find a way to frame the decision, cut losses, and move on. What they are doing is absolutely stupid, reckless and frankly dangerous.
Meanwhile, Belgium, one of the sideline players – a truly selfish one at that, one that milks every advantage from hosting both EU and NATO headquarters, one with an economy of nearly €750 billion (GDP-PPP) – has announced that they will send F-16s to Ukraine next month.
But before we get to their plan, let us first take a look at Belgium's effort to support Europe in its fight for survival.
In three years, Belgium has sent €3.4 billion in aid to Ukraine. That is a grand total of €1.13 billion per year. In 2024 alone, Belgium collected €1.7 billion in tax on the profits generated by the frozen Russian central bank assets in Euroclear.
Talk about skimming the difference.
I really don't know where to keep Belgium. They make money and won't even give that to Ukraine. So when these people said we are going to send F-16s to Ukraine – all I could hear in my head was Belgium asking: can we make some money out of it?
They have 53 F-16s. By virtue of being the HQ of NATO, they are well protected. They announced yesterday that they will deliver a batch of F-16s next month. I hope that they do.
It will be good, actually great if it happens.
I hope the EU applies intense pressure on the Belgian government to follow through on its promises, because Ukraine is staring at a massive opportunity. If Belgium follows through and the next batch of F-16s arrives, it will provide a huge lift for Ukraine's air force, perfectly timed to match the delivery of 3,350 ERAM missiles the Trump administration is selling to Europe. .
The arrival of ERAMs and F-16s will not change the way Ukraine attacks assets inside Russian territory. These bombs have a range of 450 km, and Ukraine will most likely lay back deep inside its own territory and attack Russian logistics, troop concentrations and even key Russian frontline positions in occupied territory using these bombs.
Russia will counter by attacking any airbase they consider important for Ukraine. It will be a bit of cat and mouse. Ukraine needs to massively improve its defense of airbases deep inside its territory.
I am decently confident that the bro gang inside the Pentagon will not have a 'review mechanism' for attacks inside Russian-occupied territory. It is Ukrainian land, by the way. But their loyalty could run so deep that they may have done something to control the pace of the war and to make sure Ukraine does not get on top even when fighting against Russian troops occupying their land.
So, sadly I can't rule that out – but if we do witness a blistering pace of ERAM drops inside Ukrainian land occupied by Russia, then we'll know. I hope that key GOP senators take a closer look at this and make sure that the three bro loyalists in the Pentagon do not stop Ukraine from bombing enemy forces occupying their land.
The broader picture is clear: Ukraine is staring at a strategic inflection point and that date is not too far out. The pressure on Russian ground forces will mount when Ukraine gets its hands on the ERAMs.
With a 450-kilometer range, these precision weapons will allow Ukraine to strike deep from the safety of its own territory, hitting Russian logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and troop concentrations that have been safely out of reach. Russian forces that have grown comfortable operating from what they thought were secure rear positions will suddenly find themselves under constant threat.
This isn't just about tactical advantages – it's about fundamentally shifting the strategic calculus. Russia will be forced to pull back critical assets, extend already strained supply lines, and defend territory it thought was secure. Every forward position becomes vulnerable. Every staging area becomes a potential target.
If Ukraine keeps targeting Russian refineries while also keeping the frontline under pressure, they will have a real shot at catching Putin during his most vulnerable moment – the transition period from high wartime spending to a lower, sustainable spending level that can still fund the war long-term.
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I am so ashamed that we are supporting a genocide in Gaza and failing Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
Dear Shankar,
Every now and then I pause to wonder what on earth world I have happened upon. A world where two successive US governments have purposely and deliberately carried out acts to substantially damage the integrity of NATO, and the security of Europe. Without telling us so; that shrewd observers like yourself have had to deduce from events that these have been their undeclared strategies to their partners, who have also been major paying customers for much of their defence needs for many years.
This much from your reports and others was even the case before Trump returned to the White House and by his avoidance of topics left us to realise that in all but names we are just paying customers and can expect no better than what comes in the warranty, and possibly not even timely in the events of war.
And words like treachery or treason never appear. Not least in the nation whose right wing brought us McCarthyism and similar delights.
I have virtually given up any form of trust or interest in the UK’s paper or broadcast media because without the material I receive through Medium and Substack contributors like yourself I would have virtually no inkling of what is really going on, just a collection of day-to-day trivia. That is, I’d be in the same condition as the innocent, trusting people around me. Even the public are so obsessed with immigration that they haven’t been led to connect it and right wing parties growing around them with Putin’s activities.
Am I somewhere off the beam in the above?
Thanks Shankar for all your efforts.
PS. As an aside I’m not half as interested in these passing things as I am fearful of the awful things coming down the road through neglected measures to save your generation and following from climate change. I won’t see much of them, but as a retired meteorologist/ scientist I know where to place my trust. 400 years of unrivalled progress. Where else do you see it?