Ukraine Shreds Putin’s Pokrovsk Gamble

Putin’s February 24 Trophy Slips Away – A Nightmare for Russian Commanders

Ukraine is on the move.

After punching five kilometers into Russian lines in Kursk Oblast last week, Ukrainian forces struck again—this time in the Pokrovsk direction. Yesterday’s advance wasn’t as deep, but it was far more devastating. Multiple settlements were liberated, unraveling Russian positions and shattering any illusion Putin had of securing a symbolic victory before February 24—the grim third anniversary of his war.

"We can now officially confirm the liberation of Pishchane, which is located about five kilometers south of Pokrovsk. It appears that a turning point has been reached—at least in the Pokrovsk sector. This can now be cautiously stated, even with reference to [President Volodymyr Zelenskyy], said Viktor Tregubov, Ukrainian armed forces spokesperson.

"This month, their advances have been largely stalled, and in some areas, they were even forced to retreat," he added.

This is true. Multiple military bloggers covering the war have reported that Russia’s February offensive has slowed significantly compared to last month. According to reports, Russian forces have captured less than 23 square kilometers in the past three weeks—barely one square kilometer per day.

It’s tempting to interpret this slowdown, combined with Ukraine’s weekly counteroffensives, as the beginning of a full-scale push to crush Russia’s ground forces. But it’s too early to make that call. What we’re seeing is Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi demonstrating a precise understanding of the enemy, the current political landscape, and how to deny the Kremlin any unnecessary advantage on the battlefield.

He is calculated. He is methodical. He has been slightly predictable in the last three weeks, but given what he has achieved on the ground, that’s a trade-off worth making. After Ukraine’s succesful counter attack in Kursk that pushed the enemy back by nearly 5kms and secured the anchor town of Sudzha, which Putin so badly wanted to capture before February 24th, I made the following assessment on February 9th.

I expect Ukraine to hold Sudzha when the (Feb 24th) anniversary arrives.

That leaves Putin with one real option—doubling down on his push for Pokrovsk. Under the circumstances, it’s his best bet. Hopefully, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is ready. He already forced Putin to downgrade his ambitions to trophy target number two. Now he needs to make sure that, when the time comes, he stops him again.

Pokrovsk is not an easy town to capture. Russians have been spilling around the town in multiple directions and their first aim is to cut off the supply routes leading to the town. With Russian forces just five kilometers away, the Kremlin can still dream of breaching Pokrovsk’s outskirts by February 24.

Yesterday, Ukrainians counterattacked and liberated multiple settlements in the area. But it is the liberation of Pishchane that has thrown a huge wrench into Putin’s advance towards Pokrovosk.

Pishchane’s liberation is a game-changer, shifting the battle lines away from Pokrovsk and forcing the Russians to recalibrate their offensive. (Image Credit: Deepstatemaps)