Ukraine Shows Europe the Way—While Europe Shows Putin Its Weakness

Sumy shows Russia's weakness, Poland shows Europe's—Ukraine sees the connection.

• The UK slapped sanctions on a good chunk of Russia's shadow fleet and the businesses feeding its military industrial complex.

• Japan and New Zealand joined the EU/UK/Canada coalition to drop the Russian oil price cap to $47.6, leaving the United States as the lone holdout in the Western world, clinging to the old price cap.

• Meanwhile, Ukraine's drone strike at Primorsk port forced Russia to suspend oil loading operations for its shadow fleet.

And I'm still scraping the bottom of the Russian barrel—so much happened in the last few days that everything feels critical, making it damn near impossible to leave anything out.

President Zelensky announced yesterday that Ukrainian "forces have completely thwarted the Russian offensive in Sumy. The enemy's assault has lost its offensive potential."

What the hell is that supposed to mean?

The Institute for the Study of War shed some light: A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson operating in the Sumy direction reported that Russian offensive activity has dropped due to successful Ukrainian defensive operations. The spokesperson noted that an unspecified Russian motorized rifle regiment and two airborne (VDV) regiments are conducting assaults using small fire teams of four infantrymen—without armored vehicles.

Translation: Russia is trying to hold Sumy positions with cannon fodder. They're sending men on foot, in small groups, to hold the line. Look at the map and you'll see how Ukraine has already pushed Russian troops closer to the border. The Russian Northern Group, which once fielded upwards of 50,000 troops, has shrunk and spread thin across a vastly expanded front. Most of that old concentration sat inside Kursk oblast; now this depleted force is stretched across a massive area.

Russia hasn't just pulled troops from the sector—they've gutted the combat power of the remaining forces. They've deprioritized the entire front as Pokrovsk continues devouring resources like a black hole. With Syrskyi pressing relentlessly on the Russian right flank around Pokrovsk, Russian troops in Sumy are practically sleepwalking through their defensive positions.

Since the odds of meaningful reinforcement remain virtually zero, Zelensky is declaring that Russia has lost its offensive potential in Sumy. There are still Russian troops on the Ukrainian side of the border. If Syrskyi wanted to clear them out, he could do it quickly.

But what's the point?

He'd rather drag this out. He's taunting Russian commanders to reinforce the sector, making it easier to bleed their cannon fodder capacity dry.

Pressure on France and the United Kingdom continues mounting as key European leaders push the bloc toward strong kinetic action against the Kremlin for its decision to attack Poland.

I'm sorry, but treating this as a "drone incursion" is dead wrong. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already declared this was "intentional"—and if it was intentional, then it makes zero sense to call it an "incursion." Words matter. The Kremlin attacked Polish territory with drones. Full stop.

Immediately after the attack, The Concis made several key recommendations: deliver long-range drones to Ukraine and grant permission to take out the drone manufacturing facility that built the weapons that entered Poland.

The Concis, Sept 11 2025.

The Chairman of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Thomas Röwekamp, pushed for similar measures. In a war, he believes, "the best way to combat drones is to destroy their production facilities and launchers." Therefore, NATO partners must "quickly equip Ukraine so that it can also take action against these targets on Russian soil." He added: "It must be possible, with the consent of the affected country such as Ukraine, to neutralize drones that endanger NATO territory, even in their airspace."

Earlier today, Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski pushed allies to deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine: "To help Ukraine win, we need to give them long-range missiles to continue their successful campaign of strikes on Russian refineries."

Sikorski's focus on refineries makes strategic sense—economic warfare through energy infrastructure has proven effective. There's definitely a time and place for that kind of pressure on the Kremlin, and economic damage is often more valuable than direct military damage in wartime. But right now, Europe needs a show of strength.

Russia is now marching toward an annual production rate of 30,000 drones. They're cheaper than missiles and, considering the dire state of the Russian economy, more drones is a box Putin will automatically check. He launched 19 drones into Poland and discovered there's practically no air defense or anti-drone equipment protecting the border.

If he launches hundreds of drones into NATO airspace paired with missiles, it will cause massive damage. Europe never developed an integrated air defense like Israel's Iron Dome. The best option is to remove Russian production capacity—take away that offensive firepower or keep it under relentless pressure while Europe builds its integrated air defense.

The optimal strategy: deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine and ensure targeting data is available for those strikes. You may have noticed I keep emphasizing why this decision must come from French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

This is the reason:

• They hold the weapons.

• They can deliver the targeting data.

• And they're the ones who can either stand up to American pressure or provide the necessary political cover Ukraine needs to take that forward step—before Putin starts factoring in European weakness as part of his plan for 2026.

Ukraine's Strategic Clarity

I think Ukraine now has a crystal-clear understanding of how to end this war. Something President Zelensky said yesterday made it obvious that Ukraine isn't looking at fighting man-to-man, holding static fronts, or sitting around planning their next counteroffensive breakthrough for the headlines. They're looking at their future—and they see that delivering a clear defeat to the Russian war machine isn't optional. It's existential.

Truth is, anything less than that gives Putin no reason to back off. He knows Xi will provide backup when needed. He knows he can keep playing games with Trump. He knows India's oil barons will keep Modi under pressure to buy Russian crude. The international dynamics work in his favor as long as his war machine keeps grinding.

So the odds of Putin voluntarily striking a deal to end the war hover around zero. He also fundamentally misunderstands economics, which compounds the problem. He'll keep pushing while his central bank chief finds creative ways to keep the economy afloat and his thugs cannibalize oligarch assets to prevent total collapse. Nothing represents a permanent fix, but each measure buys precious time. When you're broke, every hundred dollars feels like a thousand.

Ukraine understands this reality. They're clearly prioritizing deep strikes over everything else—territorial gains, defensive positions, even international optics. Zelensky spelled it out himself: "The Russian war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel. And Putin will begin to stop it himself when he truly feels that the resources for war are running out."

This isn't about Ukrainian bravado or Western wishful thinking. It's cold strategic calculation. Ukraine has realized that Putin's war machine operates on a simple principle: it continues as long as it can be fed. Cut off the fuel—literally and figuratively—and the machine stops. Everything else is just buying time for Russia to regroup, rearm, and try again.

Where is Europe Now?

Still pondering whether to cross the Rubicon. There's a patchwork of half-measures and announcements. Yesterday, NATO launched an "eastern sentry program" that will supposedly patrol the eastern flank and prepare for Russian threats. But come on—is that even remotely feasible? The border from Poland to Finland runs more than 2,000 kilometers. Only the border with Ukraine has any realistic potential to stop drone flows, and even that frontline is highly porous. If an active war zone packed with air defense assets can't stop everything, how the hell will an eastern sentry program with fighter jets and Patriot units handle swarms of drones?

Keep firing million-dollar missiles at hundred-thousand-dollar drones?

The math doesn't work.

Remove Ukraine from the equation, and Europe is in deep trouble. The sooner they accept this reality, the better their future becomes. It's painfully clear that NATO is extraordinarily weak without Ukraine as an active partner. Remember those big, bold security guarantees Europe and the United States talked about endlessly to deter Putin from attacking again?

Does their response to Putin's attack on Poland inspire any confidence they'll follow through? Hell no. The entire strategy has always revolved around making Putin himself decide not to attack. That approach doesn't work. It never worked in the past and it sure as hell won't work in the future.

If they don't deliver long-range weapons now, Ukraine and the Baltic nations should tell the Western world to fuck off with their security guarantees. If they can't step up when Putin attacks Poland—a NATO member—what's the point of any promises at all? The credibility gap isn't just embarrassing anymore.

It's existentially dangerous.

Let us end this on a positive note, as this is something that is going to materially impact the war in the next six months. Poland, which is the largest spender by GDP on defense in NATO, has announced that it will use EU funding programmes to supercharge joint defense production with Ukraine. I have exactly zero doubts that their focus is going to be on two things: Anti-drone warfare and long range missiles.

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