Ukraine Pounds Frontline Russian Air-Defenses in Three Days

Are they leveling the ground to host the Mirage jets from France?

Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian air-defense systems with remarkable vigor following the Biden administration's approval of long-range ATACMS missile deliveries in February last year. While Ukraine's targeting of these assets is not new—being a continuous aspect of the ongoing conflict—the scale of destruction achieved in the past three days is unprecedented.

If you're near a seat belt, now might be a good time to buckle up. The recent tally of decimated units includes one S400 system, two S300 systems, one OSA, several BUK-M3s, two Buk-M2s, one Buk-M1, two Pantsir-S1s, two TOR-M2s, and a few radar units.

The destruction of these air-defense units did not occur in a single region or location. Instead, the attacks spanned from Kursk at the northernmost end of the frontline to Kherson Oblast at the southernmost edge. All these incidents took place within the last three days. While global attention was fixated on Ukraine’s strikes against some of Russia’s largest refineries deep within their territory, a significant number of frontline air defenses were simultaneously targeted and destroyed.

Euromaidan press reporting on the attacks from the frontline said that the “Ukrainians accomplished this through the work of resistance groups, like Atesh, operating behind enemy lines, providing real-time intelligence on Russian defenses. They relay precise coordinates for strikes and document results, ensuring no Russian system is truly safe”.

In certain areas, particularly in the south, resistance groups have significantly aided Ukraine in strategizing its operations. However, the rapid succession of these attacks suggests they were the culmination of extensive, months-long intelligence gathering involving multiple elements. Surveillance drones, on-the-ground intelligence, satellite imagery, and Western intelligence support all likely played crucial roles. The extensive destruction at the frontline underscores the highly planned and coordinated nature of these attacks, indicating a complex preparation process that spanned a considerable duration.

Ukraine appears to be systematically dismantling Russia’s air-defense capabilities at the front, potentially paving the way for the anticipated arrival of Mirage fighter jets from France.

A French Air Force Mirage 2000C

There have been rumors that Ukraine will soon receive an unspecified number of these jets, with delivery expected by the end of January or perhaps before March 2025. While the exact details remain unclear, the strategic removal of air defenses could be a preparatory step for their deployment. Personally, I prefer to discuss these developments post-action, particularly after the first French SCALP missile or AASM hammer glide bomb strikes enemy positions from a Mirage jet.

How does this affect the battlefield?

This certainly creates a lot of problems for the Russian forces. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have mutually denied space for air-force operations. Neither dares to cross the frontline. It's not simply a hostile environment for combat operations from the air; it would be a one-way suicide mission.

Russian S400 and S300 air-defense systems are extremely vulnerable to ATACMS strikes. They are practically defenseless. However, they remain extremely effective against fighter jets. If they weren't, the Ukrainian Air Force would be running regular sorties inside Russian-held territories. To date, I don’t recall a single instance where Ukrainian pilots ventured across the frontline to take out Russian military positions. Their strategy has always involved launching long-range strikes.

The SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles that destroyed Russia’s Naval Headquarters in Sevastopol in 2023 were fired from fighter jets hundreds of kilometers away. Since Ukraine has very few fighter jets, they do not take unnecessary risks and keep as far away as possible from Russian air-defense assets.

But they want to get closer.

France has been supplying Ukraine with 50 AASM Hammer glide bombs every month since the beginning of 2024. Ukraine barely uses them. Most of the strikes have occurred in the Kursk region, as far as I've seen. Once the Mirages are in position, Ukraine would want to use the stockpile of AASM Hammer Glide bombs against Russian ground forces near the frontline.

AASM Hammer Glide Bombs. Range +70kms

This will closely mirror the Russian strategy. These aren't stand-off weapons that can be launched from hundreds of miles away. The jets need to approach within 40 kilometers of the frontline to deploy them effectively. Clearing Russian air-defense assets at the frontline not only diminishes their overall air-defense coverage but also creates tactical openings that the Mirage jets can exploit.

If the Mirages start dropping glide bombs at the frontline every day, it will create the kind of problems the Kremlin does not want to handle at this point. Casualty rates will see an uptick.

And no, Ukraine will not deploy the F16s to the front lines. They will remain in the rear and may be used for selective missions.