Ukraine Exploits Breakthrough on Pokrovsk's Right Flank

Ukrainian Forces Also Seize Key Settlement of Udachne on Left Flank

Every inch lost or gained near Pokrovsk carries the weight of kilometers elsewhere. The sheer concentration of forces in this sector tells the story—Ukrainian and Russian troops amassed in numbers that likely exceed a quarter million soldiers, all compressed into this critical battleground.

Ukraine lost close to 3,000 square kilometers of territory in 2025, with a significant portion bleeding away from the Pokrovsk front. But the tide began shifting after the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, when Ukraine launched its methodical campaign to reclaim lost ground.

The breakthrough came when Ukrainian forces punched through the right flank of Russian defensive lines near Pokrovsk. What began as the capture of isolated settlements evolved into something more systematic—a deliberate expansion of the breach that culminated in the seizure of Malynivka, a key node that widened the gap in Russian defenses.

The advance from Myrne to Malynivka, visible in the tactical map below, represents more than territorial gain. It signals Ukraine's ability to exploit Russian vulnerabilities and transform localized successes into operational momentum along this fiercely contested front.

To complicate Russian response, and to make sure that they not fully concentrate their recovery efforts on the right flank, yesterday, Ukraine took control of a key frontline settlement in the left flank - Udachne.

Multiple sources, including the ISW have confirmed the liberation: "Geolocated footage from the Ukrainian General Staff published on September 2 shows Ukrainian forces raising a flag in western Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk), indicating that Ukrainian forces recently liberated the settlement".

As usual Russian military bloggers paid by the Kremlin are still crying over the loss of the settlement, which proves how much the loss of a little settlement in this sector stings their feelings now.

So, what's next for Pokrovsk?

Ukraine's recent push back of the frontline in the Pokrovsk sector has significantly diminished the immediate threat to the city, buying crucial breathing room in what has become one of the war's most intense battlegrounds.

The Russian obsession with Pokrovsk spans nearly 18 months, dating back to Avdiivka's fall. In that time, Moscow has thrown every conceivable tactical approach at the problem—frontal assaults, flanking maneuvers, siege tactics, you name it. Each failure only seemed to fuel their desire to capture the town. Eventually, after this litany of setbacks, Russian command settled on a two-pronged strategy:

1. Present overwhelming amount of manpower to the section - more than 120k troops

2. Advance around the town and cut the supply routes and then close in on the town from three directions.

This playbook mirrors their Avdiivka approach almost exactly, but with one critical difference. When Russia finally broke Avdiivka, they unleashed a devastating aerial campaign alongside their ground offensive—wave after wave of glide bombs pummeling the pocket while forces closed in from multiple directions. Ukraine's artillery shortage at the time only compounded the nightmare.

The dynamics around Pokrovsk tell a different story. Ukraine's enhanced air defenses have severely curtailed Russian air support, while Western ammunition deliveries have replenished artillery stockpiles that were dangerously depleted during the Avdiivka siege. Yes, Russia still enjoys a significant manpower advantage, but raw numbers alone won't overcome these defensive improvements.

Given these shifted circumstances, I'm confident that Pokrovsk will remain in Ukrainian hands for the foreseeable future.

Ukraine has to continue their push back. They need to get the lithium mines back. It is only a few miles from the current frontline, but it will take a gargantuan effort to claw them back.

Lithium mines are just 2 miles from the current fronline near Pokrovsk

Ukraine can start planning these attacks because the weapons Europe ordered from USA have started arriving. We don't know the full details yet, and it is not a bad thing. NATO chief Rutte announced yesterday that $2 billion worth of offensive and defensive weapons Europe paid for, have arrived.

That list was prepared by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, so I am extremely confident that it would be the ones that Ukraine needs, and not the ones politicians in the USA needs to market their support for Ukraine.

Ukraine is also not sitting still.

The much-anticipated drone swarm attacks may finally be approaching reality. What has puzzled me is why this capability took so long to materialize on the battlefield. By the end of 2023, Ukraine had already ramped up production to manufacture millions of drones, with current capacity exceeding 8 million units annually—though actual production runs at roughly half that rate.

Yet despite this industrial capacity, the largest coordinated drone strike I've documented was a 60-long range drone attack on a military facility in Rostov-on-Don. Even that wasn't a true swarm attack—it was more like a sustained stream, with Ukrainian drones arriving sequentially rather than simultaneously overwhelming the target.

What I expected to see was something far more devastating: 100 long-range drones converging on a single military asset from multiple vectors simultaneously. The mathematics are compelling. Let us assume a penetration rate of 25% on a 100 drone swarm attack—even 25 drones carrying 50-100kg payloads each would deliver 750kg to 2,500kg of explosive force.

Scale that to 200 drones if the target warrants it.

The tactical logic seemed sound. While frontline positions bristle with electronic countermeasures and dense air defenses that make FPV drone swarms vulnerable, rear-area military facilities are far more exposed. Large-scale coordinated strikes on these targets should have been not just possible, but inevitable.

So why didn't it happen?

I could only speculate: perhaps cost-benefit analysis favored other weapons systems, or production constraints forced difficult prioritization decisions. There may have been technological gaps Ukraine wanted to close before committing to such operations.

Whatever the reason, that hesitation appears to be over. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Ukraine has begun testing AI-powered drone swarms—suggesting the era of true autonomous swarm warfare is finally at hand.

And I saved the best news for last.

Chancellor Merz has finally called out what many in Brussels have been thinking but afraid to say: Viktor Orbán's systematic obstruction of Ukraine support now constitutes a direct threat to European security.

According to Átlátszó, a respected Hungarian investigative outlet, Germany has fundamentally shifted its approach—"Germany now sees Orbán's anti-Ukraine stance as a security threat and Berlin is considering freezing €43 billion in EU funds and pushing to suspend Hungary's EU voting rights under Article 7."

This isn't diplomatic posturing; it's a strategic recalibration that reflects Berlin's growing frustration with Budapest's Putin-friendly policies.

The timing aligns perfectly with Merz's hardened position yesterday, when he declared: "He (Putin) is a war criminal. Perhaps the most serious war criminal of our time, whom we are now seeing on a large scale. And we simply have to know exactly how to deal with war criminals. There is no room for compromise here."

The logic is crystal clear: if Putin is a war criminal deserving of no compromise, then those who enable him—like Orbán—cannot be treated as normal democratic partners. Germany appears ready to treat Hungary's obstructionism as what it actually is: not legitimate political dissent, but active sabotage of European security interests.

Merz needs to follow through on both fronts. Strip Orbán of his veto power through Article 7 proceedings, and simultaneously cut off the €43 billion funding lifeline that allows Budapest to play spoiler while living off EU taxpayers. You can't have it both ways—either you're a constructive EU member or you're not.

Finally, the two largest European powers have taken a bold step toward strategic data sovereignty.

Link

On August 29, 2025, France and Germany signed a letter of intent to launch JEWEL—a jointly developed missile early-warning system independent of NATO, NORAD, and U.S. systems. The initiative pairs over-the-horizon ground-based radars with a cutting-edge satellite constellation—ODIN’S EYE—built with Infrared sensors to detect ballistic and hypersonic threats, much like the U.S. Resilient Missile Warning & Tracking architecture.

A baby step, yes—but a vital one. It reduces Europe’s reliance on American weapons and data, and, more importantly, it plants the seed for a future where the world can begin to free itself from the Pentagon’s grip.

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