Ukraine Dispatches Azov. Russian Breach Hammered.

Propaganda battle not going well for Putin's Russia

151 Russian troops confirmed dead. Seventy more wounded or missing. Eight captured.

As we outlined yesterday, Russian units have trickled through the breach north of Pokrovsk—one fighter at a time—only to be strengthened by waves of reinforcements. More than 200 enemy soldiers have lurked behind Ukrainian lines. Clearing operations are in full swing, but the full extent of the incursion is still being uncovered.

This battlefield report comes directly from Ukraine's combat-hardened Azov Brigade. Yes, that name carries a controversial legacy—but today's unit is a far cry from its origins. Integrated into the National Guard as the 12th Special Forces Brigade, Azov is among Ukraine's most lethal and structurally professional combat formations.

Reformed, vetted, and fully standardized within the Ukrainian military, the brigade has shed much of its earlier ideological baggage. Now, it serves as a model of elite training, NATO‑aligned operations, and tactical autonomy.

The mere presence of Azov at the Pokrovsk front has become a force multiplier—rallying morale and pivoting the momentum on the ground. Already, the encirclement of the Russian contingent deep behind Ukrainian lines is within reach. With that kind of cutting-edge capability in play, the area right behind the breach may soon become extra hot.

Some military bloggers reported that Ukraine had cut off the Russian troops and the encirclement is complete. After a few hours the status had changed. It's natural. I don't think the Russians will give up this opening very early. Certainly not when their mob boss is in Alaska trying to sell his strength to Trump.

The Alaska Factor

Putin won't speak of the Russian "meat" he's ground down for three years—but he would very much like Trump to walk into their meeting armed with the latest breach status.

Russia has already massed over 100,000 troops in the Pokrovsk sector. For Russian generals, ruining 5,000 more families is child's play—numbers on a ledger, nothing more. That's why they'll funnel everything they can into the pocket, applying maximum pressure where the fight is hottest. And with the battle inside the breach escalating, expect them to probe for new openings in the surrounding lines. They'll go all out to hold what they've taken.

Let them.

The move has already backfired, and media reports are starting to swing in Ukraine's favor. This isn't a military fight for land—this is a fight for propaganda. It won't end until Putin flies back to Moscow after his meeting with Trump.

What Ukraine and Europe do before Putin meets Trump in Alaska is more important than what they do after. The response to the Russian breach is Ukraine's statement. They are playing hard and it is working.

Ukraine's Tactical Imperative

Ukraine needs to launch massive aerial attacks on the immediate rear. Deploy Azov at the front with artillery and longer-range assets positioned right behind the entry point—this will be extremely important. For the next two days, Ukraine should stop counting bullets, shells, drones, and missiles.

Just unleash everything.

I know this sounds wasteful. These people are nuts about precision—there was one time in southern Ukraine when they spotted an air defense system. I forgot which one it was. The system was monitored by drones, miles behind the frontline. First artillery landed on the system, not a perfect hit. The system was slowly cooling down. Then one drone slammed against the spot for that direct hit, doing more damage, and after waiting for some time the next one slammed in.

Look at the time gap between the three hits. If the artillery had landed clean, Ukraine would have saved two drones. If the first drone was enough, then the next drone would have been wasted. Ukraine not only wants precision—they also want to conserve ammunition.

Please don't do that for another two days.

Dump everything you can find into the pocket and keep hammering until Putin is in Alaska. After this, do whatever.

It is sad. But it is reality. We can rationalize, we can walk away. But reality never leaves.

Europe's Strategic Chess Move

Europe, on the other hand, has done some good, sensible work too. Most importantly—Germany added half a billion dollars on top of the money already committed for buying Patriots for Ukraine, countering Putin's scheme that was designed to stop weapons sales to NATO countries.

Done…

I know—it's half a billion.

That's less than 150,000 artillery shells.

But it's not the size of the pot. It's where the pot will sit.

Getting that money parked with a tag reading "For American Weapons Sales" before Putin reaches Alaska is critical. This is the pot I've been begging, egging, and outright shouting at European decision-makers to clear since July 17th. It mattered then, and it matters even more now.

Think of it like this: having a handshake deal to buy a car arriving at the dealer next month is fine. But walking in with full payment before it rolls off the factory? That's how you make sure it's yours when it matters most.

• Let's say that Europe pools $5 billion to buy American weapons under the PURL scheme. Inside that $5 billion is a $3 billion order for Raytheon, $2 billion for Lockheed.

• Let's say Trump falls for Putin's tricks. His mind briefly wavers at the thought of stopping weapons sales to NATO.

• What will he do when the pot with $5 billion is sitting inside the Treasury?

• How do you think Raytheon and Lockheed will respond?

• And all the GOP congressmen & senators who were assisted by them during elections?

• 2026 ain't gonna be easy for the GOP. They have a man-child itching to end their political careers so that he and his buddy can get subsidies and government contracts.

—>Now is not the time to risk the support of defense manufacturers.

Germany committing closer to $3 billion (500 million for PURL, rest for Patriot air-defense systems) to buy American weapons now aligns US defense manufacturers, Germany and GOP senators in one single line.

The Trump-Putin Meeting: High Stakes Diplomacy

European leaders did not underestimate the gravity of the moment. Starmer, Merz, Macron, Meloni and Stubb participated in yesterday’s call with President Trump. I was not at all surprised that Trump actually showed a lot of understanding of the complexities of the situation. According to WSJ, Trump told European leaders that he does not expect Putin to agree to a ceasefire and that he will not negotiate territorial issues during the meeting.

From the start, my read on the situation was clear: This was a meeting foisted upon all of us because of Steve Witkoff's incompetence. Then comes the GOP's structural problem of expanding the scope of an error to avoid looking like you made a mistake. Trump admin is trying to salvage the situation.

But just because Trump is aware does not mean the danger is over. Putin will be coming into the meeting armed with this knowledge. The KGB would have already told him where Trump stands. He acutely understands Trump's weakness for optics and MAGA GOP's commitment to error.

He will try to exploit.

The Uncertainty Ahead

For the first time in a very long time I am not able to take a stand today. This can still go wrong and it can also go in the right direction. Most likely pick for me would be one where Trump comes out of the meeting and turns the whole thing into a big nothing burger. I mean he will make it feel like the biggest burger in the world. But if you open it there won't be even a patty inside.

Anyways.

Sadly, I can't pick a spot.

But I am ok if things go wrong from here. Ukraine has done what needs to be done. It committed to clearing the Russians inside the Pokrovsk breach. Europe has done the one thing I have been begging them to do.

If you take the effort and then things go wrong, it is absolutely fine. What is not fine is you not taking the effort and then things go wrong.

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I was pleasantly surprised that Germany moved money into the PURL scheme before the Alaska meeting. The Concis kept hammering on this for weeks. Maybe someone forwarded it to the right place. If that was the case, this will stand as the best outcome for The Concis ever. Yes, we did get Elbridge Colby into trouble with Trump in early July, but that moment comes nowhere near this one.

That half a billion announcement has changed the board—it complicates Putin's pitch in many different ways.