Ukraine Darts to the Future

Launches a Successful All-Robotic Offensive

Ukraine and Russia have been at war for nearly three years. The average lifespan of a Russian conscript has plummeted from three months to less than three weeks. Despite a population of 140 million, offering salaries ten times the average and promises to wipe out loans, Russians are refusing to fight for Putin in his war against Ukraine.

The available talent pool for conscription is nearly exhausted. Coercion remains the cornerstone of Russia’s military recruitment strategy, but even that is falling short as Russia loses more soldiers daily than it can recruit across its vast territory. Putin is now turning to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to fill his manpower gaps.

Ukraine, in contrast, is a much smaller country. Before the war, its population was 41 million, of which only 19 million were men. The 30 to 50 age group accounted for just 11 million, and nearly a million from this group have already been mobilized. They are fatigued. Unlike Russia, Ukraine is not a dictatorship. Zelensky is steadfastly refusing to lower the conscription age to 18 to draft younger Ukrainians. Western nations, unwilling to send sophisticated weapons from their stockpiles, expect him to send his youth to fight instead.

I can fully understand his resistance. His stubborness deserves respect.

The need to reduce human losses at the front has driven Ukraine to innovate. Recently, Ukraine mounted an all-robotic attack—no humans on the frontlines. Operators flew first-person-view drones and controlled unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) from the rear.

Below is an image of the Ukraine’s GNOM, a versatile robotic vehicle capable of performing multiple functions.

Ukraine has been testing these unmanned ground vehicles for some time now, and they finally decided to mount a full-fledged attack in the Kharkiv sector this month. The Institute for the Study of War shared some details about this attack in its assessment two days ago:

• The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on December 20 that Ukrainian forces conducted their first ground attack exclusively using robotic systems instead of infantry on an unspecified date near Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and successfully destroyed unspecified Russian positions during the attack.

• The spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces conducted the attack with dozens of UGVs equipped with machine guns and also used the UGVs to lay and clear mines in unspecified positions in the area.

• Ukrainian officials have repeatedly highlighted Ukraine's efforts to utilize technological innovations and asymmetric strike capabilities to offset Ukraine's manpower limitations in contrast with Russia's willingness to accept unsustainable casualty rates for marginal territorial gains.

This will not turn the war around overnight or lead to a Ukrainian victory in a few months. However, Ukraine has combat-tested its weapons, giving it momentum in this direction. Step by step, they can reduce the human cost of this war.

Despite the immense pressures of war, Ukraine has innovated at a breakneck pace over the past two years. Naval drones were unheard of before this conflict, but now many question the logic of investing in massive naval fleets. In just over a year, Ukraine’s naval drones have evolved into sophisticated weapons systems capable of dominating vast stretches of the Black Sea. Developing a force capable of deploying ground robots at scale will still take considerable time.

Ukraine must plan for the current war but also prepare for the future. To bolster its deterrence capabilities post-war, several steps are crucial:

1. Become Europe’s Drone Hub: Ukraine should position itself as Europe’s drone factory, establishing the entire supply and production chain domestically. The goal should be 80–100% in-house production, including explosive materials.

2. Expand Long-Range Missile Programs: Ukraine must aggressively advance its long-range missile development while building robust production capacity. Before the war, the U.S. was producing fewer than 500 Patriot air-defense missiles annually—less than 50 per month. Russia, by contrast, has a capacity of 100–130 missiles monthly. In Europe, missiles like Storm Shadow, SCALP, and Taurus existed only in stockpiles, as production lines were dormant. The West has been complacencent; Ukraine cannot afford to repeat that mistake. Ukraine must build for itself and for its allies in Europe.

3. Scale Up Robotic Warfare: Unmanned ground vehicles are no longer a concept—they’ve already seen combat. Ukraine must continue advancing in this field. It will benefit Ukraine directly, support Europe, and increase the cost of future conflicts for Russia.