Two Weeks to Early Voting: Senate Majority Still Up for Grabs
GOP likely to win
From now until November 5th, I will release my forecasts and nationwide analysis every 14 days. Doing it daily would be somewhat pointless and would hinder our ability to properly absorb the changes. Yesterday, I shared my forecasts for this year’s presidential race along with the reasoning behind them. Today, we’ll take an objective look at the state of the Senate race in 2024.
Democrats are facing a very challenging map this year. They are defending multiple swing states, as well as seats in red states that consistently vote for the GOP in presidential races. In stark contrast, all the states the GOP is defending are what you would call safe red states.
Thankfully, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu chose not to throw his hat into the Senate race. Had he done so, Democrats would have faced yet another challenge.
As you can see, Democrats entered the 2024 Senate race with eight vulnerable states, all of which are winnable for Republicans. Meanwhile, Democrats have no easy pickup opportunities from the Republican side, as they are competing in solid red states — the kind of states where Donald Trump is expected to win by double-digit margins in 2024.
These are the states the GOP is defending this year. Are there any that look like openings for Democrats? No. The closest margins Trump had were in the twin battlegrounds of Texas and Florida. In reality, there’s no opportunity for Democrats to flip anything from the Republican side this year. That’s the starting point.
As for the red state defense, West Virginia is a lost cause. Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who had strong name recognition in the state, has retired. There’s no way Democrat Glenn Elliott is going to win against Republican Jim Justice.
Jim Justice has been the governor of West Virginia since 2017. Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell essentially secured this seat before the race even began. He understands the value of nominating winnable candidates. What can I say, the man plays for a win, unlike Trump.
Democrats currently hold 51 seats in the Senate, including West Virginia. Losing that seat drops them to 50.
Since they have no realistic chances of flipping any Republican seats, their best strategy is to hold onto all the seats they currently control.
Here’s the list of states they need to defend.
For obvious reasons, your attention will naturally be drawn to the red-state defense. And you’re right to focus there.
Surprisingly, incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is maintaining a decent lead over Republican candidate Bernie Moreno in Ohio. This lead has been stable since May 2024. Despite Trump having a solid lead over Harris in the presidential race, Democrats are likely to win Ohio.
Next up in the red-state defense is Montana. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by a massive 15 points in the state, which is close to the 16-point win Trump achieved in the 2020 presidential race. A solid red state in 2020, and a solid red state in 2024.
Unfortunately, there are no reliable polls coming out of Montana. The landscape has been dominated by Republican-leaning pollsters, showing a 6 to 8-point lead for Republican candidate Tim Sheehy over Democratic Senator Jon Tester. An August 5th poll by Emerson College/The Hill shows Tester trailing by 2 points. As an incumbent senator, being neck and neck with the challenger is a major red flag.
Tester is trailing, and I’m not seeing the Democratic Party rallying in his support. Kamala Harris should have visited the state by now. There’s still time, and hopefully her campaign managers will include Montana on their list. She needs to rally support. If they think her presence would only invigorate the opposition, they’re wrong. Democrats need to turn out as many voters as possible, keep the race close, and hope to pull through on election day. There’s nothing to lose by going to Montana since Tester is already behind.
I have to put some amount of blame on Senator Tester’s shoulders. Both Senators, Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Jon Tester (Montana) did not attend the Democratic National Convention. For some reason they both keep thinking that keeping a safe distance from Kamala Harris is a good idea. May be Senator Brown can thread the needle, but Tester is looking uncomfortable. He needs to change his strategy. Take the middle ground, if not a full embrace. But trying to avoid is not going to help him.
However, the good news for Democrats is that they are maintaining a comfortable lead over Republican candidates in the swing-state races.
The Democratic lead in all five swing states appears durable. The trend has been fairly stable over the last two months, even when Biden was running against Trump. It has only strengthened further after Harris secured the nomination.
Money isn’t the issue for Democrats; effort is. I have no idea why the Democratic Party isn’t taking Montana seriously. They can be frustratingly shortsighted at times, and I hope this isn’t one of those moments. There’s still time to change course. While they may not take the lead in Montana, closing the gap shouldn’t be that hard.
This brings me to the final question of the day: Can Democrats flip Texas or Florida, where both states are polling closer to the margin of error? I wouldn’t rule it out entirely, but I’d keep the odds close to zero — it’s an extremely difficult task. If they’re going to take that risk in Texas and Florida, spending all their energy to make them the 50th seat, they could use half or a quarter of that effort in Montana to help Senator Tester.
If I had the option to prioritize these three states to secure the Democrats’ 50th vote, my list would be Montana first, Florida second, and Texas third.
For the reasons outlined above, I am standing by my forecast for the 2024 Senate race: The GOP will win the Senate majority in 2024. It’s a race decided by just one seat.