Putin was probably lying in wait for the arrival of Steve Witkoff — Trump’s envoy, and a man who once relied on Kremlin translators to discuss global affairs directly with Moscow. At the same time, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was also heading to Russia, with Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar expected later this month.
The message was clear: the Indian government is carrying some form of communication from the Trump administration to the Russians.
In the end, Witkoff met with Kremlin officials — and Trump publicly praised the outcome, and said “great progress was made.” Whatever was discussed in that meeting, one thing is obvious — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was absolutely not pleased.
Here’s what he wrote:
Right on my way from our brigades here in Sumy region, I spoke with President Trump. This conversation happened after President Trump's representative, Steve Witkoff, visited Moscow.
Our joint position with our partners is absolutely clear – the war must end. And it must be done honestly. European leaders were on the call, and I am grateful to each of them for their support. We discussed what was spelled out in Moscow.
Ukraine will definitely defend its independence. We all need a lasting and reliable peace. Russia must end the war that it itself started. Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine.
I think Zelensky’s last paragraph said everything we needed to hear: Ukraine will definitely defend its independence. We all need a lasting and reliable peace. Russia must end the war that it itself started.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has made a flurry of moves since July 11th. Close to $1 billion in foreign military sales was approved in the final week of July. Five Patriot systems have been cleared. The contract is still pending, but Germany has already delivered two systems — meaning the full batch is likely going through.
On the oil front, Saudi Arabia has led a production surge, bringing an additional 1.8 million barrels online since May. And in a sharp turn, the administration has raised tariffs on India to 50%, citing its continued purchase of Russian oil.
From Putin’s perspective, this is going in the wrong direction. So what can he do to slow it down? According to reports, he’s now floating a truce on aerial attacks.
If granted, it would be a strategic win for Moscow. He’d get breathing room to protect key oil refineries and reduce the economic bleeding as his state machinery creaks under pressure. More importantly, such a truce would be designed to block the U.S. from delivering long-range weapons to NATO and Ukraine — the kind that could devastate Russian military production, infrastructure, and potentially the state itself.
This is exactly why I’ve been insisting that Europe needs to mobilize the $10 billion immediately and lock in the weapons orders. It’s been nearly three weeks since the admin signaled that it is ready for a large order, and Europe is still talking. So far, only $5 billion has been committed — and the weapons list likely isn’t even finalized.
The odds are high that Putin will offer to halt aerial attacks. And why wouldn’t he? He gets everything: a tactical pause, stop additional sanctions, and a delay in lethal weapons transfers into NATO.
We’re not yet back at the “holy-shit, it can’t get any worse” moment we hit in mid-April 2025— when the Trump administration floated the idea of recognizing Russian-occupied territories as legitimate. But a direct meeting between Trump and Putin still carries enormous risk. It could go completely off the rails. Or, maybe, it could lead somewhere else. There’s simply no way to predict it.
Putin likely walks into that room thinking: I’ve fooled the Trump team for six months — I can do it for six more. Trump likely walks in thinking: I’ve shown my cards, strengthened NATO, punished India, pulled in Saudi — now Putin will backpedal.
So who wins?
Only one of them has everything to lose: Putin. If he ends the war and his economy collapses, he’s finished. That’s why any attempt to negotiate before his combat power is significantly degraded is dangerous territory.
A lot now depends on Chancellor Merz as this period unfolds.
But there’s still a chance things could tilt the other way.
After months of quiet coordination — including a series of phone calls with Putin that triggered much of the chaos we’ve seen since February — Trump finally broke off on July 3rd. Since then, his administration has pivoted hard: toward NATO, and away from Russia.
If talks over the next few weeks fail, that drift will accelerate.
Britain, Germany, France, the Netherlands — they all need to be on the phone with their ministers and GOP senators, locking down what’s about to happen. There’s still time to get the $10 billion in place and secure the weapons orders. Every minute they stall, they expose themselves to greater danger.
This is a variable still fully within Europe’s control. They need to act — now.
And once that’s done, they’d better hope Marco Rubio prepares the President properly for any potential talks with Putin.
Better yet, make sure that meeting never happens at all. A lot will depend on Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He is the first key to navigate this period.
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I don’t like the idea of Putin meeting with our 6th grader. I’m not much comforted by Rubio either. Let’s hope the European leaders and the serious American military advisors aid these two in resisting Putin’s wiles. I’m glad you give Rubio some cred as a statesman. That’s hopeful. I have trouble thinking of him as anything other than a rubber stamp with no independence and no agency.
What I feared is now a real possibility. Someone has the persuade Trump he’s being played again. An arrogant fool who is destroying the U.S. will now proceed to destroy democracy around the world. Unbelievable. He must be persuaded to stop.