Trump Moves to Seal Deal with Zelensky, Extends Russian Sanctions

The Two Are Inseparable—One Can’t Happen Without the Other.

On January 24th, just four days into the new Trump administration in the United States, I sat down to draft a list of essential actions President Zelensky must take to win his war against the Kremlin. I explored countless angles, considering various strategies and options. Yet, no matter which direction I took, I always arrived at the same fundamental starting point.

After hours of analysis, the picture became clear. I had distilled it into a four-point to-do list for the President of Ukraine.

It was:

• Target 1: Keep the sanctions on day 1.

• Target 2: Keep the sanctions on day 30.

• Target 3: Keep the sanctions on day 90.

• Target 4: Keep the sanctions on day 180.

That will do. (You can read the story I published on January 24th, here)

We are on day 39, moving toward Target 3. Every inch that brings us closer to Target 4 also brings us that much closer to victory. And I’m not talking about a draw. I’m talking about breaking the Russian frontlines in Ukraine so decisively that the Russian armed forces are forced to recognize the defeat staring them in the face.

I’ve often described President Trump’s decisions regarding Russia and Ukraine as a pendulum—swinging from one extreme to the other, depending on which side of the bed he wakes up on. Will that change? Maybe. Maybe not. Can you make plans based on that? Unfortunately, you have to. And that is the challenge staring you down. This uncertainty was central to the development of the four targets I outlined earlier.

Since there is no way to trust that Trump will maintain a firm stance, your best option is to focus all your efforts on ensuring he keeps the sanctions on the Kremlin. By the end of 2024, it became abundantly clear that Putin is burning through the final reserves of Russia’s National Wealth Fund—his war chest, designed to sustain the economy under sanctions. It worked well for him, allowing Russia to run a deficit budget without external financing. But three years of war have proven too much for those savings to endure. Recently, Putin was forced to sell nearly 100 tons of gold just to keep going.

He is slashing state budgets, cutting spending on healthcare, education—every line item is being squeezed tighter and tighter. He cannot sustain this for another 180 days. That’s why Ukraine’s best path to victory is ensuring Trump does not lift the sanctions, preventing Putin from boosting his revenues, while simultaneously using long-range drones to degrade Russia’s production capacity.

Ukraine’s drone sanctions on Russia have already started to take a toll. Just yesterday, the Russian government extended its ban on gasoline exports through August 31, 2025—a clear sign of growing pressure. But that alone won’t be enough. It’s just one piece of the puzzle keeping the Russian economy from stabilizing and refueling its war machine. The other piece is the daily drawdown of Russia’s labor force—a relentless drain necessary to keep the war effort alive.

The pace of Russian casualties at the front must remain at its highest level—and any increase beyond the current rate of 1,500 to 2,000 troops per day will further drive up the Kremlin’s cost of war.

To accelerate Russia’s decline, Ukraine needs to focus on three key factors to box the Kremlin in:

1. Keep the sanctions in place. Preventing Russia from increasing its oil revenue and denying its financial institutions the breathing room to stabilize operations is critical.

2. Use drones to disrupt Russia’s oil production, especially its refining capacity. This will further cut revenue beyond its current levels, deepening the economic strain.

3. Increase frontline casualties. Raising the daily cost of war for Russia makes sustaining its offensive more difficult over time.

Do this for another two to three months, and Russia’s economy will run out of cash to sustain the war in the second half of 2025. Every passing day will be a struggle for them, and a collapse could be triggered by any sharp movement in the currency or oil markets. Russia’s economy is already too fragile to handle an oil price shock—if it happens, it’s game over for them. Right now, they’re praying nothing like that happens—that’s how desperate their situation is. Every day counts. And every day that the sanctions remain in place counts even more.

We are now moving from Target 2 to Target 3, from Day 39 toward Day 90. And there’s reason to believe we’re on solid ground to reach Target 3 with relative safety.

Yesterday, the Trump administration announced the extension of Russian sanctions for another year—a complete 180-degree reversal from Trump’s previous stance on Ukraine. After weeks of attacking Zelensky, calling for Ukrainian elections, and painting him as a dictator, Trump suddenly backtracked, even questioning a reporter on whether he ever said such things.

He will keep doing this. And it’s time to accept that reality. By now, Zelensky should have arrived in the United States. Trump has already marketed their upcoming deal on both social and national media, branding it as a huge win for America. So, he’s going to sign it—and he’ll keep selling it as a victory for the U.S.

The truth is, any Ukraine-U.S. partnership will benefit America more in the long run than it will Ukraine. But for Ukraine, this deal could mean the difference between having the option to win the war or not. Zelensky must choose the option that gives Ukraine a path to victory.

This deal keeps that option open.

I know it’s risky. But if I were advising the President of Ukraine, I’d tell him to gladly take that risk.