Trump Campaign has Messed Up. Big Time

There is no way they can explain what they are doing!

Among the seven battleground states, the margin between the two candidates has been the narrowest in North Carolina. Since August 14th, the average gap between them has been less than a point. Despite GOP-leaning pollsters frequently releasing their numbers, the figures haven’t shifted much, which leads me to lean slightly toward Harris winning the state. It will be a close race, and she won’t feel secure until the last vote is cast. However, North Carolina is not a must-win state for Kamala Harris — it is for Donald Trump and his Dark MAGA supporters.

Even GOP-leaning pollsters believe the race in North Carolina is extremely close. The latest poll from Quinnipiac shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by two to three points in North Carolina. Morning Consult poll released a day after Quinnipiac’s poll has Trump with a 1 point lead.

The candidates are being driven by a familiar gender divide. Women favor Harris by 14 points, while men favor Trump by 14 points. If this divide holds, Harris is likely to win the state, as there are more women voters than men in North Carolina. Just look at the 2020 numbers for reference.

2020 Election Results in North Carolina

Why is this not frontpage news?

Donald Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes runs through North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and one other state with more than eight electoral votes. He is currently running neck and neck with Kamala Harris in this must-win state. There is no path to the presidency for him without North Carolina.

With North Carolina, Trump can reach 262 electoral votes — but not without it.

And yet, the mainstream media won’t talk about Trump’s weakness in North Carolina. However, they won’t waste a minute discussing any poll that shows Harris’s lead dropping from three points to just one. “The race is close” has become their central theme, with everything else becoming secondary to that narrative.

Fine.

Donald Trump’s weakness with women is starting to hurt his campaign. In the 2020 election, I focused heavily on race-based permutations and combinations. This year, the first numbers I look at are related to the gender gap. What’s the gap with women? Where is it with men? How much has it shifted in the last two weeks? When I get to the race breakdowns, I find myself ready to move on. I still check them to ensure I don’t miss any major changes, but that’s about it.

The structure of this race is set: women and college-educated voters against men and non-college-educated voters. Both sides have made gains within these groups across all the swing states, but the fact that this gender gap has made its way to North Carolina is a devastating blow for Donald Trump.

Just take a look at the spending patterns in congressional races:

The toss-up districts are where both sides focus the most spending, and rightly so. These are the areas where both parties have a real chance to win, so it’s where you throw everything you’ve got. That’s exactly how it should be done.

If North Carolina is the ultimate toss-up state, then spending there should have skyrocketed. Being a must-win state for Trump, it should be at the very top of the list in terms of campaign focus. This is basic campaign strategy 101. Yet, I’m not seeing that level of effort from the Trump campaign. According to ad spending data from the Wesleyan Project, Harris has aired more ads than Trump in the Raleigh and Charlotte media markets.

From a campaign perspective, this makes no sense. Their spending seems scattered, as if they don’t view North Carolina as a priority. This is one of the most baffling strategies by Team Trump with just three weeks until Election Day.

Maybe it’s coincidence or just bad luck, but Trump’s campaign consistently struggles with financial management. In 2020, they overspent and entered the final stretch with an empty wallet. This year, they’re spreading resources thin with little regard for the electoral map.

Take a look at this and ask yourself — would you handle it this way if North Carolina were a must-win state?

I wouldn’t. If I were managing Trump’s campaign, my top spending priority would be North Carolina, followed by Georgia, then Arizona. I’d adjust the rest as needed.

One of my well-respected readers asked me to look at the betting numbers and questioned why gamblers are favoring Trump. I don’t know — maybe they’re influenced by the mainstream media. But as someone with a financial background from the trading world, I know one thing for sure: there’s a reason why there are millions of traders, but only one Warren Buffett.

You gotta filter out the noise, where ever it comes from. Data cannot lie on its own, even if some one is actively cooking it, you can easily spot it.

From a campaign spending strategy perspective, I’m not impressed with what Team Harris is doing in Arizona, nor with what Team Trump is doing in North Carolina. The key difference, however, is that Arizona isn’t a must-win for Harris — while North Carolina is absolutely critical for Trump.