The Trump-GOP Coalition Collapses Under the Weight of Dobbs.
The Iowa poll that shocked the nation is not an anomaly; it simply reflects the undercurrent.
Who would have thought that the whitest part of the nation would drift so strongly toward the Democrats in the final stretch? Trump and Musk keep pushing the idea that Democrats can’t win without people of color, but if you look closely, it’s actually the heavily white states that are strengthening their support for Harris.
Donald Trump is doing reasonably well in the more diverse Sunbelt states, like Hispanic-heavy Texas and Florida, but he’s struggling significantly in Wisconsin, Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and even Nebraska. His margins have fallen sharply in these states compared to his own past performances.
At first glance, it might seem like the Midwest is going through a realignment, but look a bit deeper and focus on what’s driving this change, and a surprising observation emerges.
The core driver of this shift away from Trump and the GOP in Midwestern states and Pennsylvania is White Senior Women. This is the one thread connecting these states.
Why would they now break in favor of the Democrats? They voted for Trump in 2016. They did it again in 2020. But now, in 2024, they’re turning away?
What changed?
Dobbs.
The gift from the Supreme Court of the United States. And yes, this court will keep on giving. They’re just warming up. This court must fully own its role in fracturing the Republican coalition.
I don’t think the Democrats have done such a great job that Republican women would decide to vote for Kamala Harris after supporting GOP candidates for the past four decades. This shift has everything to do with the Supreme Court’s decisions and the Republican Party’s push to enforce anti-abortion measures across various states.
This isn’t a realignment of the Midwest and Great Lakes bloc; it’s a very public rejection of the Republican Party’s attempt to drag America back into the past and infringe upon women’s rights.
The GOP may have assumed that senior women wouldn’t be too concerned about the Dobbs decision. I’m sure some data analyst told them that, with the Christian Right and senior women in their corner, they could afford draconian measures to control women’s rights. After all, it would solidify their Christian Right base.
Wrong. They were absolutely mistaken.
The proof is right there in the Iowa poll published yesterday.
In Iowa, Harris has garnered 20% of Evangelical support.
In Pennsylvania, 36% of Protestants support Kamala Harris.
Across all age groups, including seniors, women prefer Harris over Trump.
Harris is drawing around 10% of Republican votes in both Iowa and Pennsylvania.
Ouch.
The source of these GOP defections is clear: it’s largely white women over 65, and a good number of them are Evangelical Christians.
Double ouch.
This shift is problematic for both Republicans and Democrats. For Republicans, it spells disaster, as it has already destabilized Trump’s campaign and paved the way for Harris’s victory. For Harris, though, it’s a mixed blessing. If she fails to address this growing resentment over Dobbs, she risks losing this coalition back to the GOP in the midterms and beyond, potentially jeopardizing her re-election chances.
So, she needs to find a way to respond—or at the very least, she needs to prove to these women that she is fighting tirelessly to restore their rights. To be honest, people don’t expect their leaders to win every battle, but they do expect them to fight sincerely.
The GOP’s coalition has fractured in the Midwest and nearby states. But this is likely a one-time phenomenon. The impact will be strongest this year, as it’s the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision, and women are determined to make their voices heard. They’ve made up their minds to support Harris.
Now it’s up to her to find a way to keep them. How she’ll do this, given all the challenges she faces, is anyone’s guess. But she has to do something.
She has to address the Supreme Court. And she is going to need a very strong Democratic congress to do that. We senior white women are as concerned about Chevron, and about SCOTUS clear corruption and bias toward cruelty, as Dobbs. And that is MASSIVELY concerned. I do believe that if anyone can make this happen, it's Harris.
Excellent point. In the rural states, doctors are moving out and clinics are closing because they can't do birth control...and losing doctors is a catastrophe for older white women.