The Rear Is No Longer Safe: Ukraine’s Missile Strategy Takes Hold

From Khartsyzk to Izhevsk, a new phase of the war is underway—one where no Russian depot is beyond reach.

Last night, a Ukrainian strike lit up an ammunition depot in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, sending fire and shrapnel skyward. The blast echoed more than 70 kilometers behind the active frontline—a sharp reminder that even Russia’s rear logistics hubs are now in reach.

This location sits right behind the front.

A front crawling with tens of thousands of troops. Checkpoints. Radars. Drone teams scanning the sky. The entire layered defense between trenches and command posts. This isn’t soft territory—it’s hardened. Slow-moving drones don’t stand a chance here. Even regular troops can knock them down.

Which is why this wasn’t a drone. It was a missile. British Storm Shadow. French SCALP. Ukraine’s own Hrim-2. We don’t know which. But we know what it wasn’t: loitering. It struck—precisely, decisively.

That’s what makes this strike so significant: Ukraine used a missile to hit what was effectively a last-mile depot—an ammunition hub directly feeding the frontline.

Ukrainian missiles are now flying almost every few days.

Back on June 22, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told reporters that Ukraine would begin increasing both the scale and depth of its strikes against Russia. This appears to be exactly that.

Between June 27 and July 2, Ukraine launched a sweeping series of long-range strikes—drones and missiles, every day. Morinovka airbase inside Russia. Kirovske in Crimea. Targets across Donetsk, Luhansk, Rostov. Air defense sites near the Kerch Bridge. And a key military plant in Izhevsk, 1,300 kilometers inside Russia.

The damage has been significant. You’ve seen the image of the Khartsyzk ammunition depot—every round turned to smoke. The Kupol Electromechanical Plant in Izhevsk, located roughly 1,300 kilometers from the front, manufactures air defense systems and drones for the Russian military. It burned for hours after Ukrainian drones struck, suggesting substantial destruction. Meanwhile, missile strikes in Crimea have destroyed multiple air defense systems, three helicopters, and critical radar infrastructure.

On the surface, Ukraine appears to be continuing its established playbook: long-range drone strikes into Russia, precision missile attacks on Crimea. But something new is happening. For the first time, Ukraine is using missiles to hit targets in the 70 to 150 kilometer band—command posts and ammunition depots feeding directly into frontline operations. And more importantly, these attacks are happening nearly every day since June 27.

That kind of consistency isn’t just tactical—it’s psychological. Russian units now operate under the daily expectation that the next strike could be theirs.

For months, Ukraine used its Western-supplied long-range missiles sparingly. Suddenly, they’re flying on a regular basis. There are a few possible explanations. Ukraine may have stockpiled Storm Shadows and SCALPs for a concentrated campaign. It’s also possible that the Ukrainian-built Hrim-2 ballistic missile has quietly entered serial production.

Both France and the UK—after years of inaction—announced last year that they will restart production of Storm Shadow and SCALP. Given their track record, it’s hard to believe missiles are already rolling off assembly lines. But if Ukraine maintains this pace of strikes, we’ll know soon enough.

Until now, London and Paris had only provided missiles from existing stockpiles—a dwindling resource. In the past ten days alone, Ukraine has likely fired more than six cruise missiles, possibly up to ten. If this tempo continues through July, it will be undeniable: either Storm Shadow, SCALP, or Hrim-2 is now coming off the shelves in real time.

And that spells serious trouble for Russia’s ground forces.

Why?

Because the entire foundation of Russia’s war strategy rests on depth—on stretching supply lines far enough behind the front to keep them out of reach. Ammunition depots, repair facilities, staging areas, air defense batteries—they're all placed 70 to 150 kilometers behind the frontline because that’s where, until now, they’ve been relatively safe.

Missiles change that.

If Ukraine can reliably strike within that 70–150 km buffer zone—and do it repeatedly—then the last-mile supply chain collapses. Russian forces at the front no longer have guaranteed access to steady resupply. Trucks slow down. Command posts get jumpy. Artillery loses its volume. Air defenses fall out of sync. Everything downstream—movement, coordination, endurance—begins to fray.

It’s not just tactical.

It’s systemic.

This isn't a one-off ATACMS strikes like we saw in the past. This is sustained missile pressure at operational depth. If Ukraine can keep this tempo through July—daily or near-daily missile strikes on Russian logistics nodes—it would force the Russian army to pull its storage and command hubs even farther back. But that slows everything down. And on a static, trench-heavy battlefield where artillery volume and logistics speed decide outcomes, that kind of slowdown bleeds directly into vulnerability.

More importantly, Ukraine doesn't need to destroy every target. Just hitting enough to inject uncertainty is enough. A battalion that’s not sure whether its ammo truck will arrive today or be vaporized by a Storm Shadow in transit is a battalion that loses initiative.

In other words: if Ukraine now has a reliable supply of missiles, Russia no longer has a safe rear. And that’s a strategic game-changer.

This is exactly why the U.S. administration resisted sending ATACMS to Ukraine for so long. And it’s why I’ve said from the very beginning: ATACMS are war-winning weapons.

They are.

These missiles are ground-launched, highly mobile, and can be fired from dispersed positions across the country. That makes the launchers nearly impossible to suppress without full air superiority—something Russia doesn't have. And once they're flying, they can reach deep into the enemy's logistical spine.

You don’t win wars by trading artillery shells trench-to-trench.

You win by collapsing the system that feeds the guns.

I don’t know the exact size of Ukraine’s missile inventory. But whatever it is today, I’m confident it’s going to grow. Germany is directly funding Ukrainian missile production. If Britain and France can finally open their eyes and ramp up Storm Shadow and SCALP manufacturing, then maybe—just maybe—Europe can stop wasting time reacting to every reckless stunt pulled by two Pentagon bureaucrats trying to halt congressionally approved supplies to Ukraine.

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