The last 24 hours of campaigning by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris provide significant insight into their strategies.
It matters a lot.
Time is the most valuable asset both candidates possess—more valuable than money and more effective than ads. Time brings energy to a campaign. I learned the importance of the final day of campaigning from none other than Donald Trump. On Election Day in 2016, he held a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, with just hours left before voting began. This last-minute effort was crucial in mobilizing voters.
Although Trump’s message was familiar, his presence commanded attention, prompting local newspapers, journalists, and others to cover him. He seized more screen time and dominated discussions in Michigan, helping him gain greater visibility across the Midwest. In contrast, Hillary Clinton’s campaign had her spread across multiple locations in the final nine days.
Trump, however, was laser-focused on his targets.
Take a look.
In the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, Donald Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by narrow margins:
Michigan: Trump won by 10,704 votes.
Pennsylvania: Trump won by 44,292 votes.
Wisconsin: Trump won by 22,748 votes.
These slim margins in the three states were crucial to Donald Trump's Electoral College victory. In the final stretch, he expended twice the amount of energy in these states compared to Hillary Clinton. This effort was enough to carry him over the finish line. However, this doesn’t guarantee victory ten out of ten times. The state Clinton visited most during this period, Florida, ultimately voted for Trump.
Coincidentally, Trump made one additional visit to Florida than Clinton did during this time. This clearly indicates that Trump's choice of states was spot-on during the 2016 election cycle, while Clinton’s choices were not; she was in the wrong places.
From day one of this election cycle, I was extremely curious about what both candidates would do in the last 24 hours, as it would reveal a lot about their campaign operations.
Donald Trump spent his time in Raleigh, North Carolina; Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania; and Grand Rapids, Michigan. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, spent the entire day in Pennsylvania.
In my view, Trump should have replaced Michigan with Georgia; that was the only mistake I can see. Visiting North Carolina and Pennsylvania was the right move. He needs North Carolina to stay in the race, as it is one of the states that will deliver its results early—potentially as soon as midnight. If he loses North Carolina by that time, all his backup plans will fall apart, raising significant doubts about his claims of winning the race. Therefore, North Carolina was a must-win state for him. He also needs Pennsylvania because it is critical for breaking Kamala Harris’s strategy of reaching 270 electoral votes by winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
But why did Harris spend the entire day in Pennsylvania?
Harris will spend the day in Pennsylvania and start the day in Scranton before delivering remarks in Allentown. Joined by her husband, Second Gentlemen Doug Emhoff, she'll attend rallies and concerts in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Lady Gaga, Kate Perry, Ricky Martin, The Roots, and remarks by Oprah Winfrey.
I did not expect that. I thought she might spend most of her time in Pennsylvania and then make a jump to Wisconsin, then to Michigan, and reach Pennsylvania by night fall. But I did mention yesterday that Kamala Harris's campaign is going all-in on Pennsylvania, so she is following through on her strategy to concentrate on PA.
One thing I forgot to note in yesterday’s assessment of Pennsylvania is that Harris needs a strong Election Day turnout in the state. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, approximately 6.9 million votes were cast in Pennsylvania. However, the number of early votes cast in the state this year is only 1.7 million, which represents just 24% of the total turnout in 2020.
Compare that to the numbers in Georgia and North Carolina:
Georgia: 76% of the total votes counted in the 2020 election.
North Carolina: 77% of the total votes cast in the 2020 election.
I almost wanted to write, "Houston, we have a problem," but I won’t, because Democrats do have a solid early voting lead in Pennsylvania. Registered Democrats have cast over 400,000 more votes than registered Republicans. And PA is not very good at early voting. In 2020, right in the middle of the pandemic, they cast a massive 62% of their vote, 4,288,688 votes on election day.
They are mad, and they are making us mad. This year, they need to do slightly better than the 2020 Election Day turnout. I think Pennsylvania is going to struggle a bit to reach 2020 turnout. Let’s see. Hopefully, they will get closer. That should be enough.
This is why Harris's campaign has been door-knocking in the state as if their lives depend on it. I believe it was a smart decision for Kamala Harris to anchor herself in Pennsylvania and not move around. She could very well win all seven battleground states, but as we learned from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, you need to spend your time in the right places.
Harris needs Pennsylvania more than any other state. It was their campaign strategy on day one, and it remained their strategy on the final day.
Staying in Pennsylvania on the final day of campaigning was a wise move. It allows her ground troops to hit the doors hard, forces local newspapers and journalists to cover her, increases her screen time in the state, and boosts turnout. If the state comes down to the wire due to low turnout, the time Harris spent there will be invaluable.
Both campaigns performed well on the last day of campaigning, demonstrating smart location selection with no major mistakes.
Very enlightening.