The Kursk Trap: How Ukraine Is Bleeding Russia Without a Full Fight

The Art of War, Ukrainian Edition

Three years is a long time—long enough to learn a few things. And if there’s one thing I’ve figured out, it’s this: I can predict the Russians. They’re creatures of habit. When something works, they double down. When something fails, they adjust—slowly, methodically, within their own constraints. Their playbook isn’t infinite, and more often than not, I can see their next move coming.

Now, Ukrainians? That’s a different story. I gave up trying to predict them a long time ago. You can analyze the battlefield, run the scenarios, weigh the constraints—and they’ll still do the one thing no one saw coming. For nearly a year and a half, I haven’t even bothered to guess. It’s pointless. They are unpredictable by design.

Which is why whatever Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is doing in Kursk, the Russians are completely in the dark. Stuck. Guessing. And right now, that uncertainty might be Ukraine’s greatest weapon.

Kursk isn’t just a battlefield—it’s a distraction. A pressure point. One that forces Russia to waste time and troops while Ukraine makes real advances elsewhere.