“The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia is facing a cascade of compounding material, industrial, manpower, and economic problems that directly threaten its ability to sustain this war. Instead of addressing any of them, Putin is banking everything on breaking Western resolve.”
Sounds like Putin might possibly be badly-informed by sycophants who don’t dare delivering uncomfortable information.
He does not understand economics. He thinks it is something that can be managed. And Elvira keeps feeding that overconfidence. She is exceptional. She is her last line of defense. He has no clue.
Russia did what it always does...threaten and crudely try to browbeat the opposition. They are not known for subtly. They are also teetering on the edge of the abyss and the sooner they go over it the better for the civilized world.
Not yet. Almost there. Europe still has work to do. They took one giant step. There are two more steps. Do that, then yes, I really dont see how Russia can wriggle out of this. It is the same as the soviet union. Two weeks before they broke apart, if you had called the Kremlin, they would have told you they are greatest superpower in the world.
Russia has to buy crude at the higher price, then sell at the ca price? Is that how that works?
Trump seems to remain a wild card. He is so sure that he is the only person who can negotiate with Putin. (Rubio was not impressed by Russia’s demands or by their diplomatic lack of politesse. But Trump nearly gave away the store once before. I don’t know why the EU is letting him anywhere near negotiations—particularly not since he gave Israel the back of his hand and started supporting Hamas’ bankers, who are also tied to 9/11 and the brutal killing of one of out journalists.
Comparing Trump turning off intelligence to Putin turning off gas is interesting, for what it says about them, and for why and how it backfired. Thanks for explaining these.
Russia has had a big stick to use for a very long time. They have lost their strength and can't wield that stick now, and have left themselves with few other options except to throw their people into the grinder. I hope Russia crumbles quickly, and Ukraine can move forward with their vision of freedom, peace, and a thriving nation. I volunteer there regularly, and everyone I get to talk with there is anxious to leave war behind, embrace the wisdom they've gained through adversity, and build strong relationships for the future.
Unfortunately, I am also concerned that the US has lost its way, and that the current administration has no understanding that global economics does not work in the same way as a controllable corporate budget (not that they've ever gotten that one right either).
I really appreciate this article. Such great information and easy for me to follow. I’m not well educated in all the political situations going on. So thanks for this.
Interesting as Phillips O'Brien seems to have alternative view that it is all about trapping Trump. I'm not 100% sure about that view (might be) but his analysis seems to discount available agency of both Europe and Ukraine in the situation.
I totally disagree. Europe can, but they dont want to take that step because it allows leeway for Trump to drift. So they will try to put up a fight and that might seem as if they dont have agency.
Europeans and Ukrainians aren't necessarily doing things way analysts (and historians) might want but I think a lot of people are discounting both the agency that Europe and Ukraine have and have used.
The one thing that I do worry about is their resolve to knock out the black sea fleet. Without enforcement the impact will be far less than where it could be and also their willingness to get India on board. These are the only two things that concern me. Rest, I am not.
Just think about this for a moment. March 2 billion delivered. April 2 billion delivered. This month they have already dropped 1 billion exclusively for Ukraines domestic weapons production. That 2 billion is also going to come shortly. Czech has promised deliverey of 1.8 million shells. Rheinmetall alone can send 2k plus shells per month and add rest of Europe, you are already looking at 4k shells baseline.
1. There arent enough Patriot interceptors right now with Ukraine. Putins missile stock pile is getting fatter by the day.
2. They also do not want Trump to side with Russia and release the secondary sanctions pressure on India and China. And the key institutions that have been blocked access. That will open another lifeline, buying few more months for Putin. And you know what putin gets once he gets few months.
3. Targeting data.
4. Starlink
If they have to go it alone. They can. It will cost heavily for Ukraine in the short term and then recovery will be clear and reliable. But right now it is a bit of a gamble and they are not interested in taking it because moving Trump is not an impossible task. Difficult because of Musk and Thiel, but not impossible.
A masterly analysis … thank you!
Agreed. This kind of analysis is simply absent from most, if not all, media.
“The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia is facing a cascade of compounding material, industrial, manpower, and economic problems that directly threaten its ability to sustain this war. Instead of addressing any of them, Putin is banking everything on breaking Western resolve.”
Sounds like Putin might possibly be badly-informed by sycophants who don’t dare delivering uncomfortable information.
He does not understand economics. He thinks it is something that can be managed. And Elvira keeps feeding that overconfidence. She is exceptional. She is her last line of defense. He has no clue.
India paying $40 for Russian crude is a win for India, and allows India to ramp up solar, wind, batteries, and EVs, which is a win for the world.
yessss
Russia did what it always does...threaten and crudely try to browbeat the opposition. They are not known for subtly. They are also teetering on the edge of the abyss and the sooner they go over it the better for the civilized world.
Thanks Shankar!
Super analysis. RUSSIA IS FUCKED AND Putin is a dumbass. Assassination awaits.
Not yet. Almost there. Europe still has work to do. They took one giant step. There are two more steps. Do that, then yes, I really dont see how Russia can wriggle out of this. It is the same as the soviet union. Two weeks before they broke apart, if you had called the Kremlin, they would have told you they are greatest superpower in the world.
Russia has to buy crude at the higher price, then sell at the ca price? Is that how that works?
Trump seems to remain a wild card. He is so sure that he is the only person who can negotiate with Putin. (Rubio was not impressed by Russia’s demands or by their diplomatic lack of politesse. But Trump nearly gave away the store once before. I don’t know why the EU is letting him anywhere near negotiations—particularly not since he gave Israel the back of his hand and started supporting Hamas’ bankers, who are also tied to 9/11 and the brutal killing of one of out journalists.
No. They produce crude oil and estimates place their breakeven point for Urals (including transportation) is around $40 (avg).
Right now urals is probably trading closer to $50 or a little lower. If Europe caps it at $40, they are royally screwed.
Got it. Thanks.
you are welcome....
will india comply, remember themselves and putin are rather thick, but then money talks
They have to push until it happens.
Watch the Arctic and the Baltic. Has Russia got the most powerful navy there? No sign that the power of the nuclear navy is weakened.
Watch for cut off of Norwegian oil and gas.
Death throes, much like everything that's happened since Georgia 2008
Comparing Trump turning off intelligence to Putin turning off gas is interesting, for what it says about them, and for why and how it backfired. Thanks for explaining these.
Russia has had a big stick to use for a very long time. They have lost their strength and can't wield that stick now, and have left themselves with few other options except to throw their people into the grinder. I hope Russia crumbles quickly, and Ukraine can move forward with their vision of freedom, peace, and a thriving nation. I volunteer there regularly, and everyone I get to talk with there is anxious to leave war behind, embrace the wisdom they've gained through adversity, and build strong relationships for the future.
Unfortunately, I am also concerned that the US has lost its way, and that the current administration has no understanding that global economics does not work in the same way as a controllable corporate budget (not that they've ever gotten that one right either).
I really appreciate this article. Such great information and easy for me to follow. I’m not well educated in all the political situations going on. So thanks for this.
Putin: “a man who understands raw power but is hopelessly out of his depth in how modern economies function.”
Again like t***p, stuck in the past, hasn’t grown since his KGB days
Thanks as always, Shankar
Your analysis of Putin reminds me so much of Trump! No wonder they get along.
Common denominator, the sycophants feeding them bad info, telling them what they want to hear
They 'get along' because the former KGB agent is playing his asset like a virtuoso playing a fiddle
Interesting as Phillips O'Brien seems to have alternative view that it is all about trapping Trump. I'm not 100% sure about that view (might be) but his analysis seems to discount available agency of both Europe and Ukraine in the situation.
I totally disagree. Europe can, but they dont want to take that step because it allows leeway for Trump to drift. So they will try to put up a fight and that might seem as if they dont have agency.
This is the article I'm referring to https://substack.com/home/post/p-163618413
Europeans and Ukrainians aren't necessarily doing things way analysts (and historians) might want but I think a lot of people are discounting both the agency that Europe and Ukraine have and have used.
The one thing that I do worry about is their resolve to knock out the black sea fleet. Without enforcement the impact will be far less than where it could be and also their willingness to get India on board. These are the only two things that concern me. Rest, I am not.
Just think about this for a moment. March 2 billion delivered. April 2 billion delivered. This month they have already dropped 1 billion exclusively for Ukraines domestic weapons production. That 2 billion is also going to come shortly. Czech has promised deliverey of 1.8 million shells. Rheinmetall alone can send 2k plus shells per month and add rest of Europe, you are already looking at 4k shells baseline.
Sorry, totally dont buy that agency angle.
I think you are agreeing with me.
I'm curious as to why Europeans are keeping Trump trailing along though.
This Monday phone call tag is going to create fires that Stamer and Macorn are going to have "fun" putting out. Who's turn is this time?
I wonder what will be announced Sunday afternoon/evening.
There are a few reasons.
1. There arent enough Patriot interceptors right now with Ukraine. Putins missile stock pile is getting fatter by the day.
2. They also do not want Trump to side with Russia and release the secondary sanctions pressure on India and China. And the key institutions that have been blocked access. That will open another lifeline, buying few more months for Putin. And you know what putin gets once he gets few months.
3. Targeting data.
4. Starlink
If they have to go it alone. They can. It will cost heavily for Ukraine in the short term and then recovery will be clear and reliable. But right now it is a bit of a gamble and they are not interested in taking it because moving Trump is not an impossible task. Difficult because of Musk and Thiel, but not impossible.
Yeah I thought it was likely things like that. Keep the benefits for as long as possible makes sense.
Trump has (unsurprisingly) been able to piss off India. Add some intelligence of Russia helping Pakistan and well…
Everyone is in Rome for the inauguration for the new Pope. I do wonder what, if anything, will be announced in the evening to spike calls on Monday.
Wouldn't China and to a lesser extent India be the ones to trap?