Texas Hold'em: Ted Cruz Rebrands to Survive
A gamble
When Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred began closing the gap in the polls against Senator Ted Cruz in Texas, I had a bit of advice for the Democrats two weeks ago:
One piece of advice I have for the Democrats: Find establishment Republicans — the ones trying to stop the MAGA takeover of their party — and get them to campaign for Allred. Send Democratic star campaigners to the cities, and deploy Republican allies to the deeper parts of Texas. While you’re at it, send Arizona Senator Mark Kelly to the districts near the border.
It will shake up the map. If you want a win, then buzz like a bee. I mean bees.
They’ve done it. Part of me wants to believe I gave them a little nudge, while another part isn’t so sure. Either way, the Democrats are now mobilizing to shake up the race. Former Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger has launched “Republicans for Allred,” a GOP group rallying behind Colin Allred.
The Republicans for Allred campaign reinforces Allred’s bid to attract independents and more moderate Republicans — voters he’ll need in order to beat Cruz. Kinzinger’s push for Allred marks the latest high-profile crossover for the Dallas Democrat, after former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney endorsed Allred last month.
As establishment Republicans who left the party due to the MAGA takeover begin rallying behind Allred, Democrats have brought their star power to Texas to boost his campaign.
On Tuesday, Senator Bernie Sanders, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Greg Casar of San Antonio, and former El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke joined forces for a rally at Texas State University. Sanders is expected to remain in Texas for three days.
You may recall that when I suggested bringing in both establishment Republicans and Democratic star power to Texas, I proposed a divide-and-conquer strategy. Not in the Trump-MAGA sense, but more in terms of logistics. The idea is for Republicans to rally support in rural areas, while Democratic campaigners focus on cities and Democratic strongholds across Texas. There’s no need for Allred, his GOP supporters, and Democratic star campaigners to unite at every rally. Instead, they should each make their case separately, explaining to voters why Allred deserves their vote.
Can Allred really bring this one home?
You’ve got to try. If anyone can be unseated in Texas, it’s Ted Cruz — and he knows it. Texas has been shifting toward the center for years.
Cruz’s shrinking polling lead, now hovering within the margin of error, highlights just how vulnerable he is. He may not be weak enough to lose on his own, but he’s certainly within striking distance with the right effort.
This is the same Ted Cruz who launched his presidential bid in 2013 by shutting down the government for 16 days, sending thousands of federal workers home. The same Ted Cruz who was famously called “Lucifer in the flesh” by then-House Speaker John Boehner, now claims to be a bipartisan figure working for the greater good of the nation.
“What is new is not that I’m passing bipartisan legislation that helps produce jobs in Texas. I’ve been doing that since the day I arrived in the Senate,” Cruz told POLITICO as he campaigned in El Paso. “What is new is we’re finally getting the press to report on it.”
Aww, that’s adorable. Cancun must be proud to have hosted Ted Cruz, the “bipartisan legislator,” during one of Texas’s most challenging times.
Clearly, Cruz isn’t feeling comfortable, as his campaign has decided it needs a rebranding and a shift toward the center. They had to act because the polls are becoming shaky, the numbers are tightening, and Cruz is polling well below Trump in the state.
That’s a sign of weakness. Many Texans are telling pollsters they’ll vote for Donald Trump but not for Ted Cruz. If Allred can identify the Republican demographic willing to vote for both him and Trump, and expand that base, he could win the race.
Of course, Latino support will be a key focus for Allred, but he should also target white, college-educated voters in the state. These two groups will be crucial for Allred to close the gap with Cruz. There’s still plenty of time, and the Democrats have committed their time and resources to the state.
Texas remains the GOP’s Senate seat to lose, but it’s unlikely they’ll feel comfortable even for a single day until the election is over. That, in itself, is a major success for the Democrats. The strategy should be to keep the race tight, take it week by week, and aim for a flip on election day.
Difficult, but not impossible.