Syrski’s Northern Blitz: Russia’s Right Flank Is Crumbling

No Reserves, No Response

You’re not supposed to liberate anything.

That’s the hardcoded outcome on this battlefield. The Russians took over a year to capture Bakhmut. Then nearly another to take Avdiivka. I’m not counting the Kursk capture and release—too many unknowns there: the U.S. intelligence pullout, sabotage of the Ukrainian air force, and a fog of moving parts that make it an entirely different scenario.

Outside of that, the rulebook has been consistent for both sides: once you lose ground, you don’t get it back—or if you do, it takes forever. But that rulebook is starting to break.

Maps from Deepstatemaps or from Uacontrolmap

It started on May 23, 2025. In an effort to disrupt Ukraine’s new doctrine of flexible harassment in the north—where Syrski could strike anywhere, anytime—Russian commanders made a calculated move: they crossed the border to bait out Ukrainian reserves. Within weeks, Russian troop numbers in the area swelled.

But Syrski wasn’t caught off guard. He had already pre-positioned substantial forces around Sumy, directly in the path of any Russian advance. I assumed he would conserve that strength. Let the Russians waste energy, let the front stabilize, and then go all in during the final quarter of the year. Ukraine’s combat power was trending up, and I figured he’d wait for peak leverage.

But that’s not what happened.

Last month, Zelensky and Syrski publicly declared their intent to drive Russian forces out of Sumy. That was followed by a blunt statement from the Commander-in-Chief: Ukraine is done playing pure defense. Going forward, it will switch between offense and defense as needed. Within days, Ukrainian troops began hammering the Russian positions across the northern front.

And now the entire Russian right flank Russia ordered to march towards Sumy is close to collapse.