South Korea has no choice but to respond to the Putin-DPRK axis, and when they do, it will go very poorly for the Kremlin.

South Korea has some thing that North Korea does not have

The relationship between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un has been forged in the depths of hell. It is growing, and if left unaddressed, it will one day threaten the stability of the entire world.

In his desperation, Putin has no option but to turn to North Korea for assistance, as he is currently reliant on DPRK weapons supplies.

On September 15th, the Institute for the Study of War, picking up on recent comments made by Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, at the Yalta Conference, wrote in detail about Russia’s growing dependency on North Korea to continue its war effort.

Budanov drew attention to North Korea’s role as Russia’s most impactful military ally. Budanov noted that North Korean artillery ammunition deliveries to Russia have a direct and rapid effect on the war’s dynamics, with Ukrainian forces experiencing increased Russian operational tempo just days after North Korean-provided artillery ammunition arrives.

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated in January 2024 that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) cannot produce enough artillery ammunition to sustain Russia’s rate of fire and that North Korea delivered one million rounds of artillery ammunition to Russia between September and November 2023, offsetting some of Russia’s crucial shortages.

North Korea had reportedly delivered 4.8 million artillery shells to Russia as of June 2024.

It is amusing that at one point, the czar stated that if the West stopped aid to Ukraine, it would die in a week. We can say the exact same thing about the current Russian state: if North Korea stops supplying military aid to Russia, everything will collapse within a week. That is how crucial North Korean ammunition has been in sustaining the war effort.

However, that was the situation over the last 12 months. The alarming rate of personnel losses suffered by Russia has now forced the czar to look to North Korea for cannon fodder to stabilize the frontline. He has no choice. The nexus between Russia and North Korea has reached a new level. Washington, D.C., may try to bury its head in the sand and keep telling us that they have yet to see any evidence of North Korean troops in Russia, but South Korea has no such illusions.

South Korea warned Tuesday it could consider supplying weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea allegedly dispatching troops to Russia, as both North Korea and Russia denied the movements. NATO’s secretary general said that would mark a “significant escalation.”

South Korea’s statement was apparently meant to pressure Russia against bringing in North Korean troops for its war against Ukraine. South Korean officials worry that Russia may reward North Korea by giving it sophisticated weapons technologies that can boost the North’s nuclear and missile programs that target South Korea.

In an emergency National Security Council meeting, top South Korean officials condemned North Korea’s alleged dispatch of troops as “a grave security threat” to South Korea and the international community.

They have issued a stern warning to Russia not to go in this direction and seek North Korea’s help to fight its war against Ukraine. At its core, the problem for South Korea is what North Korea will gain in return for this support. Everyone knows how badly Kim Jong Un wants nuclear missiles. There is no way to be sure that Putin, in his desperation, will not agree to transfer sensitive military and nuclear technology to North Korea. The axis will grow closer as they edge nearer to defeat.

This is indeed an existential threat for South Korea. I don’t think their national security apparatus is as foolish as the one we have in the United States. One of the greatest successes of the United States over the past several decades has been arresting nuclear proliferation. Every rogue regime in the world wants a nuclear weapon, and the United States has been at the forefront of stopping this from happening. However, thanks to their response to Russian war efforts in the last few years, everyone now understands that to keep the United States in check and contain its response, one needs a nuclear weapon. It has become a license to do whatever one wants and get away with it.

The United States may not understand the side effects of its failed escalation management. I don’t think South Korea will sit idly by and watch this Putin-DPRK nexus get out of hand. Their only option is to find a way to help Ukraine. I believe it is only a matter of time before South Korean weapons find their way into Ukraine. It is also possible that South Korean experts may assist Ukrainian troops; that can’t be ruled out either. I think South Korea will start somewhere and gradually take things to the next level.

The bad news for Putin is that South Korea is a weapons manufacturing giant in its own right. They were the tenth largest weapons exporter in the world in 2023, “exporting $14 billion worth of defense technology to 12 countries.”

• South Korea has an estimated production capacity of 200,000 artillery shells per year.

• Over the years they have stockpiled millions of 155 mm artillery shells.

• If North Korea has the capacity to send 4 million artillery shells to Russia in the last 12 months, then expect South Korea to have a stockpile that is way more than 4 million shells.

Even a small decision, such as sending one million shells to Ukraine will have a huge impact on the war. Ukraine is already firing 1 shell for every 2 to 3 shells fired by Russia. German and US shell production has kicked into high year, manufacturing more than 3,000 shells per day. If South Korea supplies one million artillery shells to Ukraine, in a matter of weeks, Ukraine will hit parity with Russian ground forces on artillery shell firing rate.

This is just one small example of the impact South Korea’s entry will have on the war. They can do much more than this. For almost two and a half years, the West has been trying to get South Korea to support Ukraine. However, due to the threat from the northern border, South Korea has politely refused to join the ranks. Now, as a result of Putin’s actions, the tenth largest weapons exporter in the world — boasting one of the largest and largely intact ammunition stockpiles — is preparing to send weapons to Ukraine.