Scared of a loss, Donald Trump Pivots to Projecting Victory

Sends a message to the cult that the electoral map is expanding in the 11th hour.

I tend to remember political events through images.

Some are captured in a series of continuous frames, but mostly they are single, frozen moments in time, making them feel timeless. At the top of this mental image portfolio is the moment when then-Senator John McCain delivered a thumbs-down to derail the GOP-led effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. I can see Mitch McConnell in the corner of that image, one hand folded and the other closer to his jaw.

Under Trump, the GOP came within one Senate vote of repealing the Affordable Care Act. This was the culmination of a years-long effort that began in 2010, with more than 70 attempts in the House to remove what they viewed as a stain on American misgovernance. According to the GOP, government efforts are supposed to fail, not succeed. The ACA remains, in many ways, completely against the GOP's idea of small government.

If people start accepting that government can accomplish things, how can you enable the corporations to rule the society? It undermines the foundations of trickle-down economics.

The GOP tried repeatedly and failed time and again.

During the 2016 campaign, Trump promised that he would replace the ACA, reiterating this commitment over and over.

Now, several years later, he seems intent to repeal and replace history. Yesterday, he went after Kamala Harris for saying that Trump would seek to end the ACA.

“Lyin’ Kamala is giving a news conference now, claiming that I want to end the Affordable Care Act. I never mentioned doing that, and I never even thought about such a thing,” Donald Trump posted on X.

Oh, well.

When you know you can manipulate the media to give you a positive spin, regardless of what you say or do, why not take advantage of it? There has been one ‘garbage’ standard for him and another ‘garbage’ standard for President Biden.

Trump understands he can rely on corporate media.

As it became clear that he was falling short of the baseline requirement to stop Kamala Harris from sweeping the trio of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, he made a strong pivot to projecting victory instead of fighting for one.

Instead of focusing on the four battlegrounds where he still has a chance—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—Donald Trump visited New Mexico yesterday and is scheduled to visit Virginia. He is likely to lose both states by a significant margin.

The Trump campaign is arguing that the electoral map is expanding in the 11th hour. This cashless, stable battleground leadless, ground-game-less Trump campaign wants his base to believe he is winning so convincingly that New Mexico and Virginia are in play

That way, when they potentially lose all seven battlegrounds, they can claim, “See, we were winning so big, and now they’re telling you we’ve lost so badly.”

This is the problem when you consider cheating as an option. Once you take that path, you stop working hard. Early voting data clearly shows that Trump is not completely out of the race.

The gender gap is quite pronounced in the battlegrounds, except for Nevada and Arizona. Ideally, Trump should be campaigning vigorously in PA, GA, NC, MI and WI, trying to rally rural voters to the polls. There’s still some time left on the clock. Maybe it will work; maybe it won’t. But you have to keep trying until the last minute.

That’s what helped him in 2016.

On the last day of campaigning, he was out in Grand Rapids, Michigan, hours before the polling stations opened. It helped, didn’t it? That was Trump working hard without resorting to cheating. Now, he has that option. He tried it in 2020, but it failed. The DOJ caught the small fry and locked them up, while the real culprits behind the insurrection walked free. It was a huge blunder by the DOJ.

When the true perpetrators of a crime go unpunished, what reason do they have to refrain from trying again?

So here we are. Instead of spending valuable hours in states that still need GOP voters to turn out and help him cross the finish line, Donald Trump is focusing on the wrong places, trying to project an aura of a significant win.

I still have to give some credit to the Trump campaign managers. Despite the detour coming at the wrong time, the choice of venue—Albuquerque—will help Republican Yvette Herrell, who is running against Democrat Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.

The district is competitive and currently held by the Democrats, but the GOP wants to flip the seat to their side. There is also a significant Hispanic population in the state. After the Puerto Rico fiasco, the GOP has been trying various ways to soften the blow.

But still, there was a time and place to do this. That time came and went weeks ago.

Now, let’s consider whether things are as bad for Trump as they seem.

After a lull, early voting has picked up some speed in Wisconsin, where there are currently 1 million early votes—slightly less than a third of the final 2020 vote count. However, the GOP's share in that pool is only 24%. That means 76% of the votes come from Democrats and independents.

In Michigan, Democrats and independents account for 57%, while the GOP accounts for 42%.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats and independents stand at 64%, the GOP at 36%, and independents at 3%. The Republican Party faces an uphill battle on the final election day in all three states.

• Michigan and Pennsylvania seem lost.

• I can’t see things clearly in the other five battlegrounds.

• Wisconsin is still not fully leaning toward Kamala Harris, but it is trending away from Trump.

• With Georgia and North Carolina breaking turnout records in 2024 and the gender gap remaining significant, there’s no way the Trump campaign can feel comfortable until the last ballot in both states is counted.

  

  So, it is not a suprise that Trump and Musk are all over the place as the clock starts winding down.

What should Kamala Harris do under these new conditions?

Nothing.

She should do what Trump did in the final five days of the 2016 campaign. It makes no difference whatsoever whether Trump has the lead in the state, or she has the lead, or if the turnout is great or if the turnout is weak. She need to keep showing up. Until the nth minute. The only thing I am not so sure about is which state she must be in the last hour.

Any thoughts?