Sales Triple as the World Binges on American Weapons
This Isn't Good for America or Europe
Nothing.
Over the last three decades, perhaps even longer, nothing has showcased the on-field brilliance, technological sophistication, and safety profile of American weaponry quite like the Ukrainian battlefield. The only defense Russians have against the ATACMS (long range missiles) is to duck and flee. The last-generation Patriot air-defense systems effortlessly obliterate the latest-generation Kinzhal missiles. T90 tank crews dread the menacing buzz of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
With the exception of the Abrams tanks, there is little to criticize about American weapons systems. They have proven their mettle under pressure and have unequivocally elevated the stature of the US weapons manufacturing industry.
This is certainly not the time to be a dove. Had Roosevelt and Churchill turned themselves into doves when they ran into the Nazi’s I wouldn’t be writing this and you wouldn’t be reading this. Freedom has to be armed as vultures are constantly circling around her. So, it is completely understandable that there is a literal stampede to buy American weapons.
Arms sales has shot up from $138 billion a year before Putin invaded to $318 billion in 2024. Patriot air-defense system production is running a backlog of nearly two years. HIMARS, the ground based systems that can launch ATACMS long range missiles have a backlog of more than four years. You place an order now, you will have to wait for five years to take delivery.
Who gets the money? American weapons manufacturers
Who gets the job? Americans
Who is ordering? Mostly European nations.
Does the MAGA voters in the United States understand this? No, they clearly don’t. In their eyes, everyone is taking advantage of them. Who benefits when an industry grows threefold? Americans. But good luck explaining that to them, as their leader constantly tells them they are being exploited and that bullying everyone else is a great idea.
How much of a guarantee is it that the Trump administration will see the Russian problem through and protect Europe? The MAGA Emperor talks about invading Greenland and turning the USA against its own ally, who likely never felt the need to invest in its weapons industry because they were told the United States would provide protection. After the world war, they were assured the United States would lead the NATO alliance, protect all democracies worldwide, and in return, they gained access to all democratic markets.
The United States encouraged this dependency because it wanted to protect its access to global markets.
That United States no longer exists.
Even a Democratic administration cannot be trusted anymore, as there are plenty of Jake Sullivans around. In the final year of the Biden administration, they trained just 12 Ukrainian pilots to fly F16s. On his way out, the former National Security Advisor blamed Ukraine for not having enough pilots to train. Meanwhile, France began training nearly two squadrons of Ukrainian pilots in the middle of last year, and it looks like these pilots are ready to fly.
This arms dependency Europe continues to build on the United States is not good for them and neither is it good for the United States. The lack of robust weapons manufacturing is the reason why Putin continues to target the United States and tries to break the NATO alliance by fostering right-wing parties that preach nativism and isolationism.
It will be challenging for Europe to significantly reduce this dependency, though completely eliminating it may not be necessary. However, Europe urgently needs to allocate at least half of its defense spending to developing capabilities within the continent, while using the remainder to purchase American weapons and those from other global suppliers.
By quickly enhancing their self-sufficiency, Europe will reduce any grounds for external meddling in its relationship with the United States. The faster Europe achieves autonomy, the more robust and secure it will become. Europe needs to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States, as equals, neither subordinate nor superior.
The time has come.
It was probably naive - at least in hindsight - to believe that the USA would always be a reliable guarantor of democracy. All the major nations of western Europe have had their dictators - Cromwell, Napoleon, Franco, Mussolini, Hitler. And we get Trump - the least of the bunch. Europe would be wise to heed your advice, Shankar.
Good piece with some interesting and very convincing data!