Russian Anxiety Soars as F-16 Allegedly Downs SU-34 Jet

The panic itself tells a story of its own.

I have no idea whether the Russian Su-34 that went down in Ukraine was shot down by an F-16, resulted from pilot error, friendly fire, or a technical malfunction. I tried every trick in my two-year arsenal to uncover the cause, but I failed miserably. I thought I might get confirmation from the ISW, but they couldn’t verify it either.

However, an Su-34 did go down, and some prominent Russian military bloggers connected with the Russian air force claim it was shot down by an F-16. The Su-34 vs. F-16 fight is something I’m eagerly anticipating.

Ukraine has “SAMbushed” Russian jets using its long-range Patriot systems, but risking a billion-dollar system against jets that cost a fraction of that seems illogical. It made sense when Ukraine had no other options and needed to escalate pressure on the frontline for Russian pilots. But now that fighter jets are trickling in, Ukraine should pull back the long-range air-defense units, with its air force taking the lead in threatening Russian pilots.

The Russian military blogger who first reported the Su-34 incident said something that caught my attention. He warned of more F-16 attacks and told his readers to expect more Russian jets to be shot down.

On that point, I completely agree with him.

Ukraine is quietly building a graveyard for Russian jets by taking out Russia’s ground-based surveillance systems. Since February this year, Ukraine has either destroyed or damaged four Nebo-M radars ($100 million a piece) and three Kasta 2E radars ($60 million a piece). Russia doesn’t have many of these units. At the start of the war, they had around 12 Nebo-M radars and an unknown number of Kasta 2E systems. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total number was fewer than 20 systems.

Putin thought this would be a three-day war, so they weren’t prepared. The cost of these radars is prohibitively expensive. Even if Russia finds a way to allocate more money, building a single system would take 1 to 2 years.

They’re hard to build but easy to destroy.

Ukraine has also knocked out two A-50 Mainstay airborne surveillance systems, leaving Russia with only six units. If they lose even one more, their ability to monitor the skies 24/7 will be severely compromised.

These ground-based and airborne surveillance systems are crucial for Russian pilots. The continued loss of ground-based radars will significantly hamper their effectiveness. While fighter jets are equipped with radars, pilots flying into high-threat environments filled with long- to short-range air-defense systems will avoid using their own radars as much as possible to minimize exposure. Instead, they rely heavily on ground-based and airborne radars for battlefield awareness.

As the surveillance network weakens, the protection for Russian pilots diminishes. Russia depends heavily on glide bomb sorties to keep Ukrainian ground forces in check and increase casualty rates.

But they don’t have an abundance of Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 jets. At the start of the war, they had an estimated 330 jets. According to Oryx’s visual confirmations, Russia has already lost 54 of these, which is 16% of their capacity — before the arrival of F-16s. With F-16s now in play and Russia steadily losing radars (almost one every two weeks), the rate of Russian fighter jet losses is likely to escalate.

Ukraine must continue relentlessly targeting Russia’s ground-based radar systems. Each loss adds immense pressure on the Russian air force and its air defense capabilities. It’s been a while since Ukraine shot down an A-50 Mainstay early warning aircraft, but if they manage to take out two more, Russia will be in serious trouble.

The U.S. National Security Advisor may believe he has done a commendable job by training just 12 Ukrainian pilots over the past year, effectively slowing the growth of Ukraine’s air power. But he likely didn’t foresee Ukraine’s efforts to blind the Russian air force.

I am now increasingly convinced that Mr. Sullivan is responsible for the ineffective U.S. response to the Russian threat over the last 12 months. Given the scale of aid approved by the U.S. Congress, this war could have been won by now. But it didn’t happen — not because of President Biden, but because of the man he appointed as his advisor.

A new book by presidential historian Bob Woodward reveals that President Biden has a clear understanding of the threat posed by Putin.

“That fucking Putin,” Biden said to advisers in the Oval Office not long after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Woodward. “Putin is evil. We are dealing with the epitome of evil.”

Biden criticized former President Barack Obama’s handling of Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, concluding that “Barack never took Putin seriously.”

If Biden understands that the seeds of this problem were sown in 2014, then it’s unlikely he doesn’t grasp the global consequences if Putin is allowed to walk away with a victory.

Biden is being fed fear-driven, nonsensical plans — just like the ones given to him by this same team when he ordered the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Mr. Sullivan completely mishandled that operation. It was President Biden’s mistake not to fire him the day after, and it’s still his mistake to continue following his advice.

That error may have cost Biden his chance at a second term.

Americans like winners.

Over a year ago, I predicted that if President Biden didn’t secure a victory over Russia before election day, he would likely lose the race. It more or less happened, didn’t it? His approval ratings dropped so badly that he had to withdraw from the race. The first time Biden’s approval rating went negative was after the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, and it never recovered after that.

I’m glad Mr. Sullivan will be gone on January 20th.

The world can’t wait.