Putin's Worst Day Ever

Macron Drops the Hammer. Europe Breaks the Shackles.

Understandably, Western media has been mind-numbingly focused on Europe's decision to deploy troops in Ukraine the day the conflict ends—post-war security guarantees. I never gave post-war security guarantees much credence, simply because they come after the war, and there's a long and arduous path from here to reach that point.

I wasn't alone in thinking this way. President Zelensky said nearly the same thing after yesterday's meeting of the coalition of the willing at the Élysée Palace in Paris:

"A strong Ukrainian army is and will remain the central element of security guarantees. Therefore, it is about the capabilities of our army—financing, weapons, and defense production."

You need a strong Ukrainian army to either defeat Russian forces in the occupied territories, or it has to become strong enough to make Putin feel that losing on the ground is his only option left. Only under those conditions will he yield, and only then will post-war guarantees materialize.

My biggest fear regarding these security guarantees was that Europe would make bold decisions and then use them to convince Ukraine to cede territory to Putin. Give up Donbas—we've got you covered. From Putin's perspective, such a deal would only send the message that if he persists long enough, he'll be able to devour more territory.

Europe packs its troops into Ukraine, so he will find some other place to start his next war.

I didn't want Europe to make promises and then use them to slow the current forward momentum, ultimately delivering a battlefield victory to the invaders. Because that would, in effect, become an invitation for Putin to plan his next war.

Thankfully, Europe didn't do that.

They didn't just promise to send a 26-nation force to Ukraine after the war ends—they also did something major. A decision that, in my opinion, should have been front, center, back, right, and left of all major publications.

Europe, for the first time ever, broke its own shackles and told Putin: If you don't restrict yourself with rules, then we're not going to either.

Europe has decided to deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine.

From British PM Keir Starmer’s Office

There aren't many options on the table for Europe. France does have long-range missiles, but God knows what status their production lines are in. Germany has the Taurus missiles, but those are still in the 500km range. The open-ended statement about "long-range" weapons by Europe helps them keep things flexible.

I don't believe this was a move by Europe to send whatever they have in their limited inventory to Ukraine. This is Europe taking ownership of the rule-breaking decision. This is Europe setting the stage to take delivery of long-range weapons from the United States and then transfer them to Ukraine.

What this also accomplishes is fundamentally redefining Ukraine's relationship with Europe. If long-range missiles—weapons that sit at the top of any offensive firepower of a combat force short of nuclear weapons—can be transferred, then every previous red line has been erased. Advanced fighter jets, sophisticated air defense systems, precision-guided munitions, electronic warfare capabilities—everything under the nuclear threshold is now on the table.

This isn't just about weapons transfers anymore. It's about Europe declaring that Ukraine has crossed into a new tier of partnership, one where the most sensitive military technologies are shared without hesitation. The psychological barrier has been shattered. Once you've handed over the keys to your most advanced strike capabilities, what's left to withhold?

No more parsing of weapon ranges. No more debates about "escalatory" versus "defensive" systems. No more artificial distinctions between what Ukraine "needs" versus what it "wants."

The floodgates are open, and Putin heard it.

Kremlin is still reeling from the shock. They did not expect 26 nations to commit to send troops to Ukraine. They assumed that Europe would never dare to deliver long range missiles to Ukraine. And Putin likely assumed that the United States will never send long range weapons to Europe.

What Will Elbridge Colby Do?

The entire world now knows who the Colby guy is and what he does. The WSJ has called him out. European military experts have called him out. There's virtually no chance that Brussels is unaware of who he is and the role he plays.

Instead of asking what this Colby guy will do, the time has come for Europe to seize control of the situation. I have very little doubt that Europe's decision to supply long-range missiles was them setting the stage to purchase those weapons from the United States and transfer them to Ukraine.

This transfer mechanism will likely run through the PURL initiative, where allies pool funds, receive the shopping list from Ukraine—which would likely be strengthened by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Alexus Grynkewich—and then place orders with the United States.

But here's where Europe holds the cards: buyers sign contracts with sellers. And contracts have clauses.

Those clauses should clearly spell out the control dynamics. That's it. Time to put the Pentagon in its place. If President Trump has made the decision to sell weapons to Europe, then neither Colby nor any of his Pentagon allies should have any say in how those weapons are used once they're transferred.

The United States wants to be a seller? Then treat them like one. Make sure the contracts Europe signs spell out every single detail—end-user agreements, transfer rights, operational parameters. No backdoor Pentagon vetoes. No shadow approvals. No bureaucratic sabotage from defense officials who think they can micromanage European sovereignty.

Europe has the leverage here. They're the customer with cash in hand, and America needs their defense spending. It's time to use that leverage to strip away the Pentagon's shadow veto over Ukrainian operations.

Trump will not oppose this. He is more likely to take the side of Europe than the other end on this one. It will work Europe. Get your best men and women to draft those contracts. Get Merz on the phone with Trump and get it signed.

Macron and Carney Delivered at the Right Time

Some of you may remember Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Ukraine on August 24th, on Ukraine's independence day. During that trip, Carney stressed the importance of thinking beyond just arming Ukraine. It was a pointed statement delivered with the usual blink-and-you-miss-it Carney style.

Carney didn't make vague promises. He stated very clearly that Canada is ready to take part in the peacekeeping force. Don't forget Canada holds the G7 presidency. If this decision was already finalized, then there was no reason for Carney to speak about it with the Ukrainian president standing next to him. The fact that he spoke about it publicly means Europe was indeed talking in circles over it.

When Macron first proposed this idea, way back in February 2024, the number of European leaders who pushed back at him was considerable. The United States scoffed at the idea. There was so much pushback against him that the Élysée Palace was forced to defend the proposal.

Feb 28, 2024. Macron was force to defend his idea

Granted, at that point, Macron was talking about sending troops during wartime. But from there, he kept nudging this idea over and over, and it has now reached the point where 26 countries have agreed to send troops to Ukraine after the war. Macron played the long game and he corroded the resistance. A timely assist from Canadian PM Carney helped as well.

Credit where it's due. I'm delivering this one squarely to President of France Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

And as usual, Mechanic Merz continues to keep his eye on the screws, nuts, and bolts. During the meeting, as allies were discussing their contributions, Germany announced that it will boost Ukraine's air defense by 20% annually and also send 500 ground weapons to Ukraine every year. Merz wants to equip four mechanized Ukrainian brigades annually.

Some reports say that Germany also opened discussions about strengthening Ukraine's air force. If Merz pulls this one off, I promise The Concis will be on the streets campaigning for his re-election.

For the first time ever since the beginning of the war, Europe didn't miss a single beat yesterday. Not a single one. Every red line was broken. There were no vague promises. Every single decision can be written with clarity. I think it's time to retire the term "Europe is not responsible."

They took ownership.

Putin is not fighting Ukraine anymore. He is fighting Europe. That's what he wanted anyway. He asked for it, and now he's got it. But here's what Putin didn't calculate: Europe isn't the fractured, hesitant collection of nations he invaded Ukraine to intimidate. It's a unified military and economic powerhouse that just declared it will no longer play by his rules. He wanted to test European resolve, and Europe just answered with 26 countries, long-range missiles, and an open checkbook. Putin got his wish—and it may be the last thing he ever wanted.

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