Russia nowadays only delivers about 20% of its oil by way of its shadow fleet, and almost exclusively to China. The rest is delivered by normal tankers, insured by the West, and at prices capped by the West.
Putin's shadow fleet failed miserably, his shadow tankers are docked at Russian harbors. Putin's 15 billion dollar investment in his shadow fleet proved to be a complete waste of money.
The reason - the receiving ports and refineries (especially in India) were told that if they handled oil from Putin's shadow fleet, they could say bye bye to Western oil and trade business. Guess how they reacted?
Putin can send all the fighter jets he wants to secure his shadow fleet, but it won't make any difference.
Secondary sanctions mean - the West will tell receiving ports and refineries (especially in India) that not only will they lose (all) Western business when they accept oil from Putin's shadow fleet, they will also lose (all) Western business when they accept oil from the 'normal' fleet.
Such sanctions will basically kill another 40 to 50% of Russian oil sales. Only China will remain, but, one can be assured, the Chinese will pay bottom prices...
I think that number keep fluctuating. The number of ships in the shadow fleet. and the Jaquar that Estonia tried to board was a ship from the shadow fleet.
But I do agree that secondary sanctions will be very important
It's my gut, overall feeling, by the way, that Europe (Macron, Starmer, and Merz, and Poland and the Baltics) is going for the kill, not so much by stepping up military support for Ukraine - although there is that - but by bringing the Russian economy to its knees.
That would be the cleanest, and shortest route to ending the war, with the added benefit that if Putin cannot stomach stopping the war, it might bring an end to his reign.
Europe has to board the ships to enforce sanctions and cut off revenue. Any violation of airspace has to be met as a serious violation worthy of military response.
Russia only understands force. Everything else is a delaying tactic.
Even better move the blockade to Danish straits. Have Danish and Swedish warships create an actual blockage there so there is little maneuver room, have Denmark ‘borrow’ a couple of NASRAMs from Norway and EW from Sweden with their Gripens on standby. All Europe no NATO assets. Much further away Russia reducing their ability to respond.
First, excellent reporting on the Estonian incursion.
Second, yes, Putin only understands force, because that is the only tool Putin has ever had.
The EU should stop waiting for Trump and take the lead in sanctions, while encouraging the US to join in. This "waiting" for "something" to occur - Putin backing down? - which was not earned is a foolish approach to theirs and to global security. Lay on the sanctions, alert Putin that violations of EU airspace will receive a "Turkish welcome". And wait, as the costs to Putin rise, and rise and rise. Applying additional measures as needed.
What measures? Start a mobilization of EU forces to Ukraine and to Poland. A steady, protracted effort to demonstrate that Putin's costs will continue to rise. This "stretching" of the Russian mindset will cause cracks in Putin's grip, and expand the space for reality to perch.
Putin has no future if the EU acts, and disposes of its decades-long habit of mastering hesitancy.
If the tanker returned to Russian waters isn't that job done? If NATO keeps the shadow fleet in Russian waters it cannot offload oil at the buyers destination and the buyers will stop buying.
Russia nowadays only delivers about 20% of its oil by way of its shadow fleet, and almost exclusively to China. The rest is delivered by normal tankers, insured by the West, and at prices capped by the West.
Putin's shadow fleet failed miserably, his shadow tankers are docked at Russian harbors. Putin's 15 billion dollar investment in his shadow fleet proved to be a complete waste of money.
The reason - the receiving ports and refineries (especially in India) were told that if they handled oil from Putin's shadow fleet, they could say bye bye to Western oil and trade business. Guess how they reacted?
Putin can send all the fighter jets he wants to secure his shadow fleet, but it won't make any difference.
Secondary sanctions mean - the West will tell receiving ports and refineries (especially in India) that not only will they lose (all) Western business when they accept oil from Putin's shadow fleet, they will also lose (all) Western business when they accept oil from the 'normal' fleet.
Such sanctions will basically kill another 40 to 50% of Russian oil sales. Only China will remain, but, one can be assured, the Chinese will pay bottom prices...
I think that number keep fluctuating. The number of ships in the shadow fleet. and the Jaquar that Estonia tried to board was a ship from the shadow fleet.
But I do agree that secondary sanctions will be very important
It's my gut, overall feeling, by the way, that Europe (Macron, Starmer, and Merz, and Poland and the Baltics) is going for the kill, not so much by stepping up military support for Ukraine - although there is that - but by bringing the Russian economy to its knees.
That would be the cleanest, and shortest route to ending the war, with the added benefit that if Putin cannot stomach stopping the war, it might bring an end to his reign.
Even Russians revolt at some point...
The question is if the sanctions will work if Trump isn't on board. If I had to make a prediction - Europe will have to try to go it alone.
Then the question is - will Indian ports (we don't send oil to Indian refineries, far as I know) favor European trade over Russian oil?
My gut says they will, especially if Europe threatens sanctions on Indian goods with destination Europe.
It's a high-stakes game, but Europe already threw the dice when it delivered an ultimatum to Putin to implement a thirty-day cease fire...
Yes. Try to get Trump on board. If not go all the way on their own.
Europe has to board the ships to enforce sanctions and cut off revenue. Any violation of airspace has to be met as a serious violation worthy of military response.
Russia only understands force. Everything else is a delaying tactic.
Don't think you need to even shoot it down. Just light it up with radar (indeed multiple radars) and it will bug out.
Or just have SBS and other NATO equivalent on standby to board the ships.
Even better move the blockade to Danish straits. Have Danish and Swedish warships create an actual blockage there so there is little maneuver room, have Denmark ‘borrow’ a couple of NASRAMs from Norway and EW from Sweden with their Gripens on standby. All Europe no NATO assets. Much further away Russia reducing their ability to respond.
First, excellent reporting on the Estonian incursion.
Second, yes, Putin only understands force, because that is the only tool Putin has ever had.
The EU should stop waiting for Trump and take the lead in sanctions, while encouraging the US to join in. This "waiting" for "something" to occur - Putin backing down? - which was not earned is a foolish approach to theirs and to global security. Lay on the sanctions, alert Putin that violations of EU airspace will receive a "Turkish welcome". And wait, as the costs to Putin rise, and rise and rise. Applying additional measures as needed.
What measures? Start a mobilization of EU forces to Ukraine and to Poland. A steady, protracted effort to demonstrate that Putin's costs will continue to rise. This "stretching" of the Russian mindset will cause cracks in Putin's grip, and expand the space for reality to perch.
Putin has no future if the EU acts, and disposes of its decades-long habit of mastering hesitancy.
The time has come to put up or shut up. I want to believe in the EU resolve. I hope they won’t let us down.
If the tanker returned to Russian waters isn't that job done? If NATO keeps the shadow fleet in Russian waters it cannot offload oil at the buyers destination and the buyers will stop buying.
Thanks Shankar … someone please get this to Macron and Starmer ASAP!
europe needs to deliver one hard harsh blow to putin, to prove they mean buisness, no more dilly dallying around
Isn’t it grand to feel great again 🤞!