Putin’s Ceasefire Gamble Runs Out of Room

Russia needs a different strategy

Since November 17th, Ukrainian mobile air-defense units have intercepted Russian missiles four times: twice on November 17th, once on November 19th, and again on December 13th. Soldiers equipped with shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missile launchers successfully took out these missiles.

I’ll be honest—I had no idea it was even possible. Sure, it sounds theoretically plausible, but pulling it off on the battlefield?

That’s a whole different level.

Last week, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukraine is using electronic warfare systems and machine guns to intercept and neutralize glide bombs dropped by Russian fighter jets. On December 30th, Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate released a video capturing a dramatic engagement between a Russian helicopter and Ukraine’s MAGURA 5 naval drone. Remarkably, the drone survived a hail of bullets from the helicopter, retaliated by firing a missile, and brought down the chopper. Despite evasive maneuvers, the Russian pilots failed, and the helicopter was engulfed in flames. Russian military bloggers claim Ukraine has achieved this feat twice already.

Magura naval drone getting ready to launch R-73 missiles. Source: Ukrainian GUR

A naval drone is now taking down Russian helicopters patrolling the Black Sea.

If you gave these people a pile of sticks, they’d probably figure out a way to use them effectively against the Russian armed forces. As Ukraine’s relentless cycle of innovation rolls on, the same Russian generals who assured Putin they could conquer Ukraine in three days had handed him an absurd plan to take on Japan and South Korea if war breaks out on the eastern front.

Russia was supposed to expertly manage a two-front war. Yet this plan, obtained by the Financial Times, reveals just how deeply corrupt Russian generals continue to deceive everyone—including themselves. It includes a long list of targets in South Korea and Japan that Russia allegedly plans to strike with long-range missiles.

Of the sites listed, 82 were military targets such as the central and regional command headquarters of the Japanese and South Korean armed forces, radar installations, air bases and naval installations, FT said.

However, the remaining targets are of a civilian nature, including roads, tunnels and power plants – even nuclear ones.

“The remainder are civilian infrastructure sites including road and rail tunnels in Japan such as the Kanmon tunnel linking Honshu and Kyushu islands. Energy infrastructure is also a priority: the list includes 13 power plants, such as nuclear complexes in Tokai, as well as fuel refineries.

“In South Korea, the top civilian targets are bridges, but the list also includes industrial sites such as the Pohang steelworks and chemical factories in Busan,” FT reported.

FT said one of the slides also contained Russian estimations of the forces needed to breach two South Korean command-and-control bunkers. Another slide reportedly contains “precise measurements of target buildings and facilities” of a Japanese radar base in Okushiritou.

I don’t get it. When Putin reads a report like this and sees a nuclear plant on the target list, wouldn’t he either burst out laughing and call out the absurdity, or fall into some dreamlike trance imagining the destruction it could cause?

God, these people.

Putin lies constantly. So do his generals—to him and to each other.

• Is this why Russia continues to fail in Ukraine despite the heavy cost, especially in the second half of 2024?

• Are they still underestimating Ukraine while overestimating their own capabilities?

I think it’s a mixed bag. Putin is not oblivious—he’s acutely aware of Russia’s economic struggles and knows his runway for sustaining the war is shrinking fast. He needs a ceasefire, and the sooner, the better. But to strengthen his position at the negotiation table, he has to create the illusion of victory. This likely led to his directive to the generals: no matter what, keep advancing.

That’s why they set their sights on driving Ukraine out of Kursk and conquering the Donetsk region. Achieving both would have undoubtedly bolstered Russia’s position. But they tried—and failed.

And when Donald Trump receives his first proper intelligence briefing as President of the United States, he’s going to hear something like this:

• In 2024, Russian forces suffered an estimated 427,000 casualties, averaging approximately 102 casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized.

• The Ukrainian General Staff recorded an average of 1,585 Russian personnel casualties per day in December 2024, setting a fourth consecutive record for daily losses.

• In the final week of December, Russian casualties rose to an average of 1,700 per day, while the pace of their advance slowed significantly. High casualties combined with reduced progress indicate that Russia's offensive has lost momentum.

• Throughout 2024, Russia attempted to capture three key locations—Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk—following the seizure of Avdiivka. All efforts failed.

• They also launched operations to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk but were unsuccessful there as well.

• Meanwhile, the ruble has breached the 113 mark against the dollar. If it hits the all-time low of 134, the Russian economy could face imminent collapse.

So, do tell me, how is the Trump administration officials, or British officials or European officials going to treat Putin when he gets ready for the ceasefire. I am having my doubts that he is going to be even entertained by the EU at this point.