Putin’s Alaska Play: How Trump’s Desperation Could Hand Moscow the Upper Hand

Here is how to flip the board

It’s one thing for me to say it — but the same words take on a very different weight coming from a well-known ultranationalist with close ties to the Kremlin. Here’s how he describes Russia’s objectives in Alaska:

The plan is simple. We demonstrate to the whole world our desire and wish to end the SMO (of course, taking into account the realities on the ground and actually eliminating the reasons for the beginning of the SMO) and we demonstrate this desire and wish at the highest level possible.

Of course, we have done everything possible to end the war, but Zelensky and his friends are finding a bunch of excuses to continue it, and we are not to blame.

Objectively speaking, if the negotiations result in at least a cessation or reduction of military aid to Ukraine from the United States on a long-term basis, that would already be wonderful.

Immediately after the first media reports that the Trump administration was considering direct talks with Putin, I wrote the following on August 7, 2025:

If granted, it would be a strategic win for Moscow. He’d get breathing room to protect key oil refineries and reduce the economic bleeding as his state machinery creaks under pressure. More importantly, such a truce would be designed to block the U.S. from delivering long-range weapons to NATO and Ukraine — the kind that could devastate Russian military production, infrastructure, and potentially the state itself.

Only the Trump administration could believe that Vladimir Putin is flying to Alaska for anything other than his own gain. The narrative is that Putin will listen to Trump, sign the deal, and respect Trump’s declaratory powers.

I don’t buy it.

Putin’s trip is about one thing: exploiting Trump’s hunger for a quick, camera-ready peace. If he can get even a sliver of what he wants — whether it’s the Donetsk fortress, a sanctions freeze, or an end to US weapons flowing to Ukraine — he’ll consider the mission accomplished. And Trump, if left to his own instincts, might just hand it to him.

Trump’s political pitch is simple: “I stopped the war.” It’s not about strategy; it’s about optics. He’s happy to throw almost anyone under the bus — migrants, the homeless, foreign allies — if it boosts his brand. Ukrainians would be no different if it meant getting MAGA crowds clapping.

This overconfidence is a vulnerability Putin has been targeting since February. The pattern is clear: in April, Putin offered a temporary truce; Trump’s team jumped at it asking Putin if he wants five Ukrainian regions for a longer truce.

It took Macron’s fury to kill the idea.

Since then, Russia’s economy has worsened.

Coordinated US–European sanctions, held for even three months, could tip the Russian ship into full capsize. Putin knows this, which is why Alaska isn’t about diplomacy — it’s about breaking the US-Europe unity before it locks in.

The Real Objectives

Putin wants three things from Alaska:

1. Stop Sanctions – Freeze or roll them back before they start biting hard.

2. Cut Off Weapons to Ukraine – Now and in the future.

3. Get Europe and the US Into a Fight – Fracture NATO solidarity, weaken the Western defense industrial base.