Putin Just Lost His War Plan

Ukraine’s vulnerabilities are nearly sealed, and the next moves from Washington may break what’s left of the Russian plan.

In the past week alone, the United States has decided to approve three additional Patriot air-defense units for Ukraine — a move that would have seemed unthinkable just thirty days ago. Half a billion dollars in new assistance has been quietly locked in through the National Defense Authorization Act. And behind closed doors, the administration is now weighing whether to release another $300 million in military aid under the Presidential Drawdown Authority. Simultaneously, there’s an ongoing tug-of-war in Washington over how much authority President Trump should be granted to personally shape and execute the next round of Russia sanctions.

None of this, on its own, looks like a pivot point in the war. Headlines have moved. A little bit. But beneath that calm surface, the last 100 hours have forced Vladimir Putin into a defensive scramble. Because while the world is still focused on tactical snapshots, Putin sees what’s taking shape in a much longer frame. If he tracked the directional movement — the full arc of decisions made over the past 28 days, things are not looking good.