Putin Forced Europe's Hand. The Ukraine-Poland-Romania-Germany Defense Corridor Is the Answer.

It is happening.

The Russian-Iranian and Chinese components packed Shahed drone that entered Romanian airspace yesterday forced Romania to scramble its fighter jets in response.

Good that Romania was prepared.

Troubling that it reached this stage.

Putin's escalation to targeting NATO countries directly traces back to Donald Trump's diplomatic cover—first dismissing the Russian attack on Poland as "probably mistakes," then broadcasting his conditions for Russian sanctions on social media.

Putin heard the message loud and clear. He's thinking: oh yes, "mistakes" happen all the time—now it's Romania's turn. Notice Trump’s framing: it's "Biden and Zelensky's war," not Putin's. So obviously Putin knew sanctions weren't coming.

Trump demands Europe stop buying Russian oil, but the only countries still buying from Putin are his allies. Putin knows they won't stop. Trump knows they won't stop. So he launched that drone at Romania.

Trump is desperately scrambling to blame Europe. He can’t be blamed and niether can be Putin. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are under intense pressure to act. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stays quiet, but Germany clearly wants to respond. These aren't domestic political theatrics—the holdup squarely remains with Macron and Starmer.

But someone has decided enough is enough.

Long-time readers know I've discussed building a European army but ruled out Polish participation. I also predicted Poland would seriously consider nuclear weapons. Connecting those dots explains why I said Poland would refuse European army membership—and any Ukrainian peacekeeping mission.

Forget all that now, except the nuclear weapons part. Poland's entire calculus has shifted. Putin may have made a catastrophic mistake targeting Poland. When I gamed Putin's escalation scenarios, I expected him to hit Estonia. I can reveal this now because Putin already showed his hand by going after Poland.

A mind-numbingly strategic blunder to target Poland.

He cannot undo what he's done.

Consider these numbers:

Military aid to Ukraine by European nations

Cumulative military aid to Ukraine until June 30, 2025 vs GDP in Euros. Europe spiked aid after May this year, but the data comes from Kiel University, making it reliable for our analysis.

1. Germany: €16.51 billion (GDP: €4,305 billion)

2. United Kingdom: €13.77 billion (GDP: €2,300–2,400 billion)

3. Denmark: €9.16 billion (GDP: €350–400 billion)

4. Netherlands: €7.48 billion (GDP: €1,000–1,100 billion)

5. Sweden: €6.73 billion (GDP: €600–650 billion)

Poland—with a €900–1,000 billion economy—doesn't crack the top five. Yet I've never criticized them for it.

Why?

Context matters.

Poland wasn't sending enough aid to Ukraine because they were frantically building their own defenses. They were terrified. Remember the war's early days: Poland immediately offered to send fighter jets to Ukraine. The Biden-Sullivan-Obama Pentagon axis crushed that initiative.

It was March 9th, 2022. One week after Putin invaded Ukraine, Poland offered to send all its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Chaos erupted within the country that signed the Budapest Memorandum promising to protect Ukrainian sovereignty.

The Pentagon bluntly opposed Poland's fighter jet plan. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Polish counterpart the US wouldn't support transferring MiG-29s "at this time".

Austin "stressed that we do not support the transfer of additional fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian air force at this time, and therefore have no desire to see them in our custody either".

Rumors persist that Poland dismantled some of their jets and secretly shipped the parts to Ukraine. I believe those rumors.

Who eventually broke the Biden-Scholz heavy weapons blockade? Rishi Sunak's Britain and Donald Tusk's Poland. They almost bullied the Scholz government to send the tanks to Ukraine.

Guardian reported this on January 24, 2023: Warsaw had even threatened to go ahead and send its tanks to Ukraine without permission from Germany, in a reaction to Scholz’s failure to make an announcement, despite widespread expectations that he would use the meeting at the Ramstein military base to do so. A German government spokesperson had told Poland that to do so would be unlawful under the terms of the purchase agreement.

Who became the first NATO country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine?

Poland.

Poland feared for its future.

They chose to spend little on Ukraine and more on plugging their own defense gaps. Despite an economy approaching one trillion euros, I never faulted them for contributing just €3.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine. In raw numbers, they trail France. But I won't blame them for that strategic choice.

Poland's conservative calculus is about to flip. It has to. Signals emerging from Warsaw indicate their position has fundamentally shifted. We're about to witness a massive surge in Polish-Ukrainian defense cooperation.