Pokrovsk Is a Vortex. Belgorod Is a Distraction.

As Russian forces push to retake key settlements, Ukraine is holding firm—and pinning down thousands of Russian troops in the north with minimal cost.

After a February–March lull, Russian forces have resumed counterattacks along several axes, with Pokrovsk remaining their primary focus. Daily casualty rates have ticked up slightly, now hovering between 1,200 and 1,500 troops per day—still well below the 2,000-plus losses seen repeatedly in December 2024. In short: the tempo is rising again, but it hasn’t returned to peak intensity.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian operations inside Russia’s Belgorod region continue, adding new dimensions to the battlefield.