Nevada Moves To Harris

Can she sweep all seven battleground states?

Nevada can easily be overlooked in the presidential race, especially given its modest six electoral votes. However, losing it can significantly jeopardize future electoral prospects. Nevada, with its two Senate seats, has a significant and growing Hispanic voter base—a demographic that is becoming increasingly influential in shaping American politics.

For Democrats, both Nevada and Arizona are essential battlegrounds. With Texas and Florida, which have large Hispanic populations, leaning toward the GOP, the outcomes in Nevada and Arizona will be very important for Democratic strategy moving forward.

If Dems lose Hispanic support they will lose the Senate for a very long time. Therefore, I am deeply concerned about how Nevada will vote in this election cycle.

Kamala Harris’s lead in the state was unstable, as was the Senate race between Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen and Republican candidate Sam Brown. Polls for the Senate race fluctuated wildly, showing anything from a high single-digit lead for Rosen to a tie. With Democrats underperforming among Hispanic voters nationwide, Nevada’s Senate seat and its 6 electoral votes hung in the balance.

However, the final national shift that occurred after the Madison Square Garden MAGA hate rally has pulled Nevada toward the Democrats. One by one, some of the conditions I look for a Democratic win in this state have been met.

1. Good Turnout: To secure victory—not just in Nevada but across all seven battleground states—Harris needs turnout to reach or even surpass 2020 levels. After a slow start, 914,000 people have now voted in Nevada. In 2020, total turnout was 1.4 million. Nevada is on track to come close to 2020 turnout, possibly even slightly exceeding those numbers.

2. Senate race is blue: The Senate race has now shifted favorably toward the Democrats, with even GOP pollsters showing Rosen leading by a comfortable margin. If the Senate race were signaling a Republican advantage, Democrats would likely lose both the Senate and presidential races—that’s just how it works. However, the reverse isn’t necessarily true: if the Senate race is leaning Democratic, it will contribute a solid number of votes to Kamala Harris, providing a modest advantage.

   

3. Hold Trump under 35 with Hispanics: Harris has reduced Donald Trump’s support among Hispanic voters to under 35%, with Trump currently polling at 33%. This shift is a significant boost for Harris and likely explains why she is leading Trump by 3 points in NYT-Siena poll.

   

4. Donald Trump does not have a ground game in Pennsylvania. If that’s the case in PA, there’s no way he has anything resembling a get-out-the-vote operation in Nevada.

The odds now clearly favor the Democrats to win both the presidential contest and the Senate race in Nevada.

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