Moderate Republican Kamala Harris Hits Arizona
I was strongly against Kamala Harris’s campaign strategy of keeping Arizona as an option rather than going all out to win it. I’ve been a constant critic because it never made sense to me why they would try to match the Trump campaign’s ad spending instead of outspending them. With a cash cushion, I expected a bolder approach.
However, the way they are now targeting Arizona — bringing in Democratic star power just as early voting begins — makes it seem like this was part of a larger plan: to focus on the Midwest in the early stages, and then pivot to the Sun Belt in the final weeks.
Will they make a last-minute push in Florida? No, I don’t think so.
Democrats are pouring into Arizona. President Biden, First Lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, and several other prominent Democrats are headed there this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama visit Arizona as well.
Little by little, the Harris campaign and the Democrats have ramped up their spending in Arizona, and they seem committed to staying the course.
A recent analysis from AdImpact shows Phoenix as the country’s third-most targeted political ad market, with $107.5 million worth of spots set to run between Labor Day and Election Day. The only two ad markets more flush with political ad cash are Philadelphia and Las Vegas, with $127.4 million and $107.6 million in political programming scheduled to run in those markets, respectively. All three are the biggest media markets in key swing states in both the presidential race and the battle for the Senate.
I hope it’s clear what Harris is doing. After gaining ground and stabilizing her lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, she shifted her focus to Pennsylvania. As the ad bookings through Election Day indicate, she’s now planning to ramp up spending and increase her presence in Arizona and Nevada.
It’s a solid plan. Donald Trump is running low on campaign cash compared to Kamala Harris, and he’ll have a hard time keeping up with the Democrats’ spending in the final stretch.
However, relying solely on ads to swing Arizona and Nevada in Harris’s favor won’t be enough — it needs to be part of a broader strategy. Democrats must focus on turning out the vote, and bringing in top Democratic figures will be a huge help. Keeping the base energized is crucial, and regular visits from big names will definitely strengthen the ground game.
The race in Arizona remains within reach for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump is ahead by just 1.3 points, leaving Republicans far from comfortable in the state. This is largely due to the significant underperformance of Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake.
That race is over — Gallego is going to win, and he’ll add tens of thousands of votes to Kamala Harris’s total. To win Arizona, Harris needs to convince some Republicans and a large number of independents to support her. The way she’s campaigning, with the language she uses, she almost sounds like a moderate Republican.
She talks about freedom, a theme Republicans once championed. She’s also emphasizing a strong foreign policy stance against dictators. Just yesterday, she called Iran the “greatest adversary” of the United States — a smart move to appeal to Jewish voters and to Americans who prioritize national security. National security used to be Republican territory.
On top of that, she’s even referred to herself as a capitalist.
Vice President Kamala Harris spoke about lowering costs for the middle class and cast herself as a pro-business, “pragmatic” capitalist in an address Wednesday that focused on toplines of her economic plan and kept the details broad.
In describing her economic philosophy, Harris invoked Franklin Roosevelt and said she’d engage in “bold, persistent experimentation.” She called for “practical solutions” not “constrained by ideology” and said she would take “good ideas from wherever they come.”
She’s taking the Republican playbook and throwing it right back at them. What makes it difficult for the Trump-Musk-Thiel camp to counter is that Harris isn’t responding to Trump’s nationalist populism with economic populism. Instead, she’s positioning herself in the middle ground, resembling what a moderate Republican presidential candidate might have done ten or twenty years ago.
It’s a very smart move given the strategic direction of her campaign. They’ve locked down the Midwest and are now focusing on the Sunbelt, where they need to persuade independents and moderate Republicans to choose her over Trump. Harris is subtly signaling that she embodies more traditional Republican values than Trump ever did. Recently, she’s been emphasizing that she’s willing to adopt good ideas, no matter where they come from — a clear hint that she’s open to working with Republicans.
I wouldn’t be surprised if she recruits Republicans for her administration. Personally, I’d love to see Mitt Romney appointed as Secretary of State — that would be a brilliant move.
Ladies and gentlemen, meet Kamala Harris, the ‘moderate Republican.’