Kremlin Forces Massing Around Pokrovsk to Consolidate Control Over Recently Captured Lithium Deposits

Ukraine must mobilize its troops in the area to counter the threat.

The Kremlin is not an enemy you can ever take for granted—not now, not tomorrow, not ever. They are hurting, and that pain has been painfully evident over the past year. Yet despite their mounting troubles, they refuse to accept the writing on the wall. Instead, they continue to push their ground forces into Ukraine. Losing 1,700 troops in a single day is staggering. If the United States had suffered such losses in Iraq, Afghanistan, or any other conflict, the government would have been voted out, and troops would have been brought home.

Not so with the Kremlin.

To Putin, the average Russian soldier is nothing more than expendable cannon fodder—fuel for his ambitions. He grinds them down without hesitation, all for the promise of seizing the next economic prize. Because for Putin, it all comes back to resources. Russia is little more than a gas station with nukes, and he’s desperate to expand his commodity arsenal. Ukraine, with its wealth and sophistication, is an irresistible target.

Beneath Ukraine's soil lies plenty to capture. One of Putin's key targets? Lithium deposits. Ukraine holds an estimated 500,000 tonnes of untapped lithium—a resource Putin craves to secure economic leverage.

Described as "white gold," lithium is a critical material for batteries used in devices ranging from smartphones and laptops to electric vehicles. Ukraine has an estimated 500,000 tons of untapped lithium, one of the largest reserves in Europe, according to geological surveys.

Rod Schoonover, a national security expert and founder of the U.S.-based Ecological Futures Group, said “The Russian invasion has disrupted any progress toward leveraging Ukraine's reserves, but if stability is restored, these resources could become, in time, a cornerstone of Europe's strategic autonomy in critical minerals," he said.

On January 14th, the Russian army advancing toward Pokrovsk captured the lithium deposits near Shevchenko. The location is shown in the image below.

This lithium deposit is one of the key reasons the Russians aim to capture Pokrovsk and extend their control to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. Having more territory under your control isn’t just strategic—it’s essential. You don’t want your frontline sitting at a location you consider critical.

Even after capturing the lithium deposit near Shevchenko, the Kremlin knows the area won’t be secure as long as Pokrovsk remains in Ukrainian hands. Their ideal scenario? Seizing Pokrovsk and pushing the Ukrainian frontline several kilometers beyond it.

That effort is now fully underway. Despite suffering colossal losses in November and December, the Russian army is consolidating troops from various battalions to prepare for what they hope will be the final push for Pokrovsk.

ISW reported this earlier today.

• ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command would likely choose to recommit elements of the 5th and 110th brigades to a priority sector of the frontline, and the Russian military command appears to have chosen to redeploy these forces to offensive operations east of Pokrovsk.

• The Russian military command appears to be attempting to leverage units of the 41st and 51st CAAs to advance east of Pokrovsk and envelop the town and may intend to redeploy additional units of the 51st CAA to reinforce this effort in the future. Russian forces will likely continue to make gains as part of their intensified effort to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast and southwest, particularly if Russian forces can identify and exploit tactical vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses along Pokrovsk's flanks.

• The rate of such advances will likely remain slow however, as Russian forces have yet to demonstrate the ability to conduct the type of rapid mechanized maneuver necessary to quickly penetrate Ukrainian defensive lines and surround Pokrovsk quickly enough to encircle a significant number of Ukrainian forces.

This presents an incredible challenge for Ukraine, requiring a slight adjustment to their strategy. Over the past three months, Ukraine has successfully defended by leveraging strategic depth. They haven’t hesitated to concede territory, ensuring that every inch lost came at a steep cost to the Russians. Their focus has remained steadfast on Kursk, avoiding the heavy commitment of Ukrainian troops along older frontlines, instead drawing Russian forces toward Kursk.

Now, the Russians are countering this approach with a hard push toward Pokrovsk. Ukraine must defend the city. They can either reinforce this sector with additional troops or intensify their counterattacks against Russian forces near Kursk. Either way, decisive action will be critical over the next four weeks.

The question remains: What will Commander Syrski do? He cannot afford to let the Russians seize Pokrovsk—and I don’t believe he will. How he plans to achieve that, however, remains uncertain.